Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016

Research article 02 Nov 2016

Research article | 02 Nov 2016

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

Jorgen Randers et al.

Related authors

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190,,, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamics of the Earth system: models
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634,,, 2021
Short summary
First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600,,, 2021
Short summary
The thermal response of small and shallow lakes to climate change: new insights from 3D hindcast modelling
Francesco Piccioni, Céline Casenave, Bruno Jacques Lemaire, Patrick Le Moigne, Philippe Dubois, and Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 439–456,,, 2021
Short summary
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438,,, 2021
Short summary
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231,,, 2021
Short summary

Cited articles

Akbari, H., Matthews, H. D., and Seto, D.: The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024004,, 2012.
Bates, N. R., Best, M. H. P., Neely, K., Garley, R., Dickson, A. G., and Johnson, R. J.: Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean, Biogeosciences, 9, 2509–2522,, 2012.
Church, J. A. and White, N. J.: Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century, Surv. Geophys., 32, 585–602,, 2011.
CMIP5 scenario runs: (last access: 27 October 2016), 2015.
C-ROADS:, last access: 11 November 2015.
Short summary
We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to estimate the effects of possible human interventions to influence the global surface temperature. ESCIMO consists of sectors that track global carbon flows, global energy flows and global albedo change. One conclusion is that human interventions that cost less than 1 % of world GDP are at most able to lower the temperature rise in 2050 by up to 0.5 °C and in 2100 by up to 1.0 °C.
Final-revised paper