A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

Randers, Jorgen; Golüke, Ulrich; Wenstøp, Fred; Wenstøp, Søren

doi:10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

Research article

|

02 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 02 Nov 2016

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Golüke, Fred Wenstøp, and Søren Wenstøp

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Total article views: 8,346 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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PDF: 2,265
XML: 262
Total: 8,346
Supplement: 363
BibTeX: 211
EndNote: 241

Views and downloads (calculated since 14 Apr 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Apr 2016	99	28	1	128
May 2016	82	21	0	103
Jun 2016	26	9	0	35
Jul 2016	16	4	1	21
Aug 2016	11	0	11
Sep 2016	24	2	1	27
Oct 2016	12	3	2	17
Nov 2016	178	40	3	221
Dec 2016	35	13	2	50
Jan 2017	24	16	0	40
Feb 2017	20	7	4	31
Mar 2017	37	21	5	63
Apr 2017	52	21	5	78
May 2017	44	18	3	65
Jun 2017	52	11	2	65
Jul 2017	20	9	4	33
Aug 2017	7	8	0	15
Sep 2017	18	8	1	27
Oct 2017	20	10	0	30
Nov 2017	16	14	0	30
Dec 2017	8	14	1	23
Jan 2018	10	11	0	21
Feb 2018	13	12	3	28
Mar 2018	10	7	3	20
Apr 2018	19	10	3	32
May 2018	11	11	0	22
Jun 2018	11	8	0	19
Jul 2018	9	6	2	17
Aug 2018	21	10	0	31
Sep 2018	14	7	1	22
Oct 2018	19	11	0	30
Nov 2018	31	13	3	47
Dec 2018	13	8	0	21
Jan 2019	20	7	1	28
Feb 2019	27	12	0	39
Mar 2019	19	7	3	29
Apr 2019	11	5	0	16
May 2019	13	17	1	31
Jun 2019	10	10	4	24
Jul 2019	12	12	0	24
Aug 2019	23	13	1	37
Sep 2019	22	11	0	33
Oct 2019	19	8	0	27
Nov 2019	19	11	0	30
Dec 2019	21	51	3	75
Jan 2020	21	13	0	34
Feb 2020	29	13	0	42
Mar 2020	16	23	1	40
Apr 2020	12	17	1	30
May 2020	19	16	0	35
Jun 2020	38	37	2	77
Jul 2020	35	59	25	119
Aug 2020	11	11	2	24
Sep 2020	18	13	0	31
Oct 2020	16	19	1	36
Nov 2020	1,214	328	6	1,548
Dec 2020	118	63	3	184
Jan 2021	73	42	1	116
Feb 2021	46	23	2	71
Mar 2021	73	19	2	94
Apr 2021	51	23	3	77
May 2021	36	20	3	59
Jun 2021	30	26	2	58
Jul 2021	44	26	2	72
Aug 2021	40	17	1	58
Sep 2021	45	45	7	97
Oct 2021	52	65	5	122
Nov 2021	73	56	4	133
Dec 2021	57	25	1	83
Jan 2022	54	16	4	74
Feb 2022	49	18	5	72
Mar 2022	31	16	1	48
Apr 2022	54	16	5	75
May 2022	39	10	0	49
Jun 2022	49	13	1	63
Jul 2022	44	11	1	56
Aug 2022	51	16	1	68
Sep 2022	45	12	3	60
Oct 2022	51	14	3	68
Nov 2022	82	15	2	99
Dec 2022	87	13	5	105
Jan 2023	53	20	2	75
Feb 2023	40	14	1	55
Mar 2023	61	18	0	79
Apr 2023	35	26	0	61
May 2023	41	22	4	67
Jun 2023	55	9	2	66
Jul 2023	70	18	1	89
Aug 2023	41	15	0	56
Sep 2023	36	13	2	51
Oct 2023	47	19	0	66
Nov 2023	39	9	0	48
Dec 2023	47	11	2	60
Jan 2024	50	14	1	65
Feb 2024	45	11	1	57
Mar 2024	33	12	2	47
Apr 2024	34	17	7	58
May 2024	59	12	3	74
Jun 2024	65	18	2	85
Jul 2024	54	21	7	82
Aug 2024	73	13	5	91
Sep 2024	44	10	7	61
Oct 2024	54	10	2	66
Nov 2024	56	7	0	63
Dec 2024	53	12	3	68
Jan 2025	55	24	6	85
Feb 2025	70	11	2	83
Mar 2025	36	20	3	59
Apr 2025	48	19	2	69
May 2025	57	12	1	70
Jun 2025	95	14	1	110
Jul 2025	58	15	4	77
Aug 2025	42	17	2	61
Sep 2025	58	19	1	78
Oct 2025	65	22	4	91
Nov 2025	49	17	14	80

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Apr 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Apr 2016	99	28	1	128
May 2016	82	21	0	103
Jun 2016	26	9	0	35
Jul 2016	16	4	1	21
Aug 2016	11	0	11
Sep 2016	24	2	1	27
Oct 2016	12	3	2	17
Nov 2016	178	40	3	221
Dec 2016	35	13	2	50
Jan 2017	24	16	0	40
Feb 2017	20	7	4	31
Mar 2017	37	21	5	63
Apr 2017	52	21	5	78
May 2017	44	18	3	65
Jun 2017	52	11	2	65
Jul 2017	20	9	4	33
Aug 2017	7	8	0	15
Sep 2017	18	8	1	27
Oct 2017	20	10	0	30
Nov 2017	16	14	0	30
Dec 2017	8	14	1	23
Jan 2018	10	11	0	21
Feb 2018	13	12	3	28
Mar 2018	10	7	3	20
Apr 2018	19	10	3	32
May 2018	11	11	0	22
Jun 2018	11	8	0	19
Jul 2018	9	6	2	17
Aug 2018	21	10	0	31
Sep 2018	14	7	1	22
Oct 2018	19	11	0	30
Nov 2018	31	13	3	47
Dec 2018	13	8	0	21
Jan 2019	20	7	1	28
Feb 2019	27	12	0	39
Mar 2019	19	7	3	29
Apr 2019	11	5	0	16
May 2019	13	17	1	31
Jun 2019	10	10	4	24
Jul 2019	12	12	0	24
Aug 2019	23	13	1	37
Sep 2019	22	11	0	33
Oct 2019	19	8	0	27
Nov 2019	19	11	0	30
Dec 2019	21	51	3	75
Jan 2020	21	13	0	34
Feb 2020	29	13	0	42
Mar 2020	16	23	1	40
Apr 2020	12	17	1	30
May 2020	19	16	0	35
Jun 2020	38	37	2	77
Jul 2020	35	59	25	119
Aug 2020	11	11	2	24
Sep 2020	18	13	0	31
Oct 2020	16	19	1	36
Nov 2020	1,214	328	6	1,548
Dec 2020	118	63	3	184
Jan 2021	73	42	1	116
Feb 2021	46	23	2	71
Mar 2021	73	19	2	94
Apr 2021	51	23	3	77
May 2021	36	20	3	59
Jun 2021	30	26	2	58
Jul 2021	44	26	2	72
Aug 2021	40	17	1	58
Sep 2021	45	45	7	97
Oct 2021	52	65	5	122
Nov 2021	73	56	4	133
Dec 2021	57	25	1	83
Jan 2022	54	16	4	74
Feb 2022	49	18	5	72
Mar 2022	31	16	1	48
Apr 2022	54	16	5	75
May 2022	39	10	0	49
Jun 2022	49	13	1	63
Jul 2022	44	11	1	56
Aug 2022	51	16	1	68
Sep 2022	45	12	3	60
Oct 2022	51	14	3	68
Nov 2022	82	15	2	99
Dec 2022	87	13	5	105
Jan 2023	53	20	2	75
Feb 2023	40	14	1	55
Mar 2023	61	18	0	79
Apr 2023	35	26	0	61
May 2023	41	22	4	67
Jun 2023	55	9	2	66
Jul 2023	70	18	1	89
Aug 2023	41	15	0	56
Sep 2023	36	13	2	51
Oct 2023	47	19	0	66
Nov 2023	39	9	0	48
Dec 2023	47	11	2	60
Jan 2024	50	14	1	65
Feb 2024	45	11	1	57
Mar 2024	33	12	2	47
Apr 2024	34	17	7	58
May 2024	59	12	3	74
Jun 2024	65	18	2	85
Jul 2024	54	21	7	82
Aug 2024	73	13	5	91
Sep 2024	44	10	7	61
Oct 2024	54	10	2	66
Nov 2024	56	7	0	63
Dec 2024	53	12	3	68
Jan 2025	55	24	6	85
Feb 2025	70	11	2	83
Mar 2025	36	20	3	59
Apr 2025	48	19	2	69
May 2025	57	12	1	70
Jun 2025	95	14	1	110
Jul 2025	58	15	4	77
Aug 2025	42	17	2	61
Sep 2025	58	19	1	78
Oct 2025	65	22	4	91
Nov 2025	49	17	14	80

Latest update: 27 Nov 2025

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Short summary

We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to estimate the effects of possible human interventions to influence the global surface temperature. ESCIMO consists of sectors that track global carbon flows, global energy flows and global albedo change. One conclusion is that human interventions that cost less than 1 % of world GDP are at most able to lower the temperature rise in 2050 by up to 0.5 °C and in 2100 by up to 1.0 °C.