Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100
Jorgen Randers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalsveien 37, 0484 Oslo, Norway
Ulrich Golüke
BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalsveien 37, 0484 Oslo, Norway
Fred Wenstøp
BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalsveien 37, 0484 Oslo, Norway
Søren Wenstøp
BI Norwegian Business School, Nydalsveien 37, 0484 Oslo, Norway
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within 9 planetary boundaries J. Randers et al. 10.1017/sus.2019.22
- Human well-being in the Anthropocene: limits to growth D. Collste et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.26
- Opportunities for Blue food in a turbulent future - what’s ahead for a growing aquaculture industry? M. Troell 10.48045/001c.122387
- System dynamics at sixty: the path forward J. Sterman 10.1002/sdr.1601
- An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 J. Randers & U. Goluke 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z
- Sustainability of Transport System of Large Russian City in the Period of COVID-19: Methods and Results of Assessment A. Petrov & D. Petrova 10.3390/su12187644
- The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development C. Feder et al. 10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6
- Necessary or oversimplification? On the strengths and limitations of current assessments to integrate social dimensions in planetary boundaries L. Drees et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108009
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response Z. Nicholls et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
- Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams G. Lemaire et al. 10.3390/w13213002
- Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm A. Mignan 10.3390/ijerph191912780
- Author Correction: An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 J. Randers & U. Goluke 10.1038/s41598-021-81695-6
- Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing S. Lade et al. 10.5194/esd-9-507-2018
- Determinants, outcomes, and feedbacks associated with microeconomic adaptation to climate change H. Bartelet et al. 10.1007/s10113-022-01909-z
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Achieving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals within 9 planetary boundaries J. Randers et al. 10.1017/sus.2019.22
- Human well-being in the Anthropocene: limits to growth D. Collste et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.26
- Opportunities for Blue food in a turbulent future - what’s ahead for a growing aquaculture industry? M. Troell 10.48045/001c.122387
- System dynamics at sixty: the path forward J. Sterman 10.1002/sdr.1601
- An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 J. Randers & U. Goluke 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z
- Sustainability of Transport System of Large Russian City in the Period of COVID-19: Methods and Results of Assessment A. Petrov & D. Petrova 10.3390/su12187644
- The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development C. Feder et al. 10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6
- Necessary or oversimplification? On the strengths and limitations of current assessments to integrate social dimensions in planetary boundaries L. Drees et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108009
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response Z. Nicholls et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020
- Data-Driven System Dynamics Model for Simulating Water Quantity and Quality in Peri-Urban Streams G. Lemaire et al. 10.3390/w13213002
- Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm A. Mignan 10.3390/ijerph191912780
- Author Correction: An earth system model shows self-sustained thawing of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 J. Randers & U. Goluke 10.1038/s41598-021-81695-6
- Analytically tractable climate–carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing S. Lade et al. 10.5194/esd-9-507-2018
- Determinants, outcomes, and feedbacks associated with microeconomic adaptation to climate change H. Bartelet et al. 10.1007/s10113-022-01909-z
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Latest update: 23 Nov 2024
Short summary
We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to estimate the effects of possible human interventions to influence the global surface temperature. ESCIMO consists of sectors that track global carbon flows, global energy flows and global albedo change. One conclusion is that human interventions that cost less than 1 % of world GDP are at most able to lower the temperature rise in 2050 by up to 0.5 °C and in 2100 by up to 1.0 °C.
We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to...
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