Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 831–850, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

Research article 02 Nov 2016

Research article | 02 Nov 2016

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

Jorgen Randers et al.

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We describe ESCIMO, a system dynamics simulation model which is designed to make it simple to estimate the effects of possible human interventions to influence the global surface temperature. ESCIMO consists of sectors that track global carbon flows, global energy flows and global albedo change. One conclusion is that human interventions that cost less than 1 % of world GDP are at most able to lower the temperature rise in 2050 by up to 0.5 °C and in 2100 by up to 1.0 °C.
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