Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015

Special issue: Social dynamics and planetary boundaries in Earth system...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015

Research article 13 Oct 2015

Research article | 13 Oct 2015

Long-run evolution of the global economy – Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

T. J. Garrett

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Cited articles

Alcott, B.: Jevons' paradox, Ecol. Econ., 54, 9–21,, 2005.
American Meteorological Society: Glossary of Meteorology, Boston, available at:, last access: March 2014.
Annila, A. and Salthe, S.: Economies evolve by energy dispersal, Entropy, 11, 606–633,, 2009.
Ayres, R. U. and Warr, B.: The Economic Growth Engine, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2009.

The requested paper has a corresponding corrigendum published. Please read the corrigendum first before downloading the article.

Short summary
GCMs and economic models are often coupled for climate scenarios. Here, what is examined is how well a simple non-equilibrium thermodynamic model can represent the multi-decadal growth of global civilization. Initialized with growth trends from the 1950s, the model attains high skill at hindcasting how fast the GDP and energy consumption grew during the 2000s. This opens treating the coupled economy and climate as a physically deterministic response to available flows of energy and matter.
Final-revised paper