Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015

Special issue: Social dynamics and planetary boundaries in Earth system...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 673–688, 2015

Research article 13 Oct 2015

Research article | 13 Oct 2015

Long-run evolution of the global economy – Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth

T. J. Garrett


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Timothy Garrett on behalf of the Authors (15 May 2015)  Author's response
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Jun 2015) by Jonathan Donges
RR by Peter Haff (08 Jul 2015)
RR by Carsten Herrmann-Pillath (11 Jul 2015)
RR by Andrew Jarvis (27 Jul 2015)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by Editor) (07 Aug 2015) by Jonathan Donges
AR by Timothy Garrett on behalf of the Authors (03 Sep 2015)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (28 Sep 2015) by Jonathan Donges

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Short summary
GCMs and economic models are often coupled for climate scenarios. Here, what is examined is how well a simple non-equilibrium thermodynamic model can represent the multi-decadal growth of global civilization. Initialized with growth trends from the 1950s, the model attains high skill at hindcasting how fast the GDP and energy consumption grew during the 2000s. This opens treating the coupled economy and climate as a physically deterministic response to available flows of energy and matter.
Final-revised paper