Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 423–439, 2014

Special issue: 9th International Carbon Dioxide Conference (ICDC9) (ESD/ACP/AMT/BG...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 423–439, 2014

Research article 01 Dec 2014

Research article | 01 Dec 2014

Continued increase in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude in the 21st century projected by the CMIP5 Earth system models

F. Zhao and N. Zeng

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Cited articles

Anav, A., Friedlingstein, P., Kidston, M., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Jones, C., Jung, M., Myneni, R., and Zhu, Z.: Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models, J. Clim., 26, 6801–6843,, 2013.
Andres, R. J., Gregg, J. S., Losey, L., Marland, G., and Boden, T. A.: Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption, Tellus B, 63, 309–327,, 2011.
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805,, 2011.
Arora, V. K., Boer, G. J., Friedlingstein, P., Eby, M., Jones, C. D., Christian, J. R., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Tjiputra, J. F., and Wu, T.: Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models, J. Clim., 26, 5289–5314,, 2013.
Bacastow, R. B., Keeling, C. D., and Whorf, T. P.: Seasonal amplitude increase in atmospheric CO2 concetration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959–1982, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 10529–10540,, 1985.
Short summary
This paper presents the CMIP5 model predictions on the seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle. We show a model consensus that the amplitude of this seasonal cycle will increase in the future under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. This is mostly due to enhanced ecosystem productivity in high latitude regions. While the models' ensemble CO2 amplitude increase is close to observation, our results suggest the underlying mechanisms may not be realistic.
Final-revised paper