Articles | Volume 14, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
Research article
 | 
21 Apr 2023
Research article |  | 21 Apr 2023

Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe

Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary

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Cited articles

Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Kitson, J., Abid, M. A., and Kao, S.-C.: Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036659, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036659, 2022. a
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Bellomo, K., Angeloni, M., Corti, S., and von Hardenberg, J.: Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response, Nat. Commun., 12, 3659, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w, 2021. a
Bock, L., Lauer, A., Schlund, M., Barreiro, M., Bellouin, N., Jones, C., Meehl, G. A., Predoi, V., Roberts, M. J., and Eyring, V.: Quantifying Progress Across Different CMIP Phases With the ESMValTool, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD032321, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032321, 2020. a, b
Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., and Bellouin, N.: Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 484, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10946, 2012. a
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Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6) based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical processes that are important for representing European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
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