Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe

Palmer, Tamzin E.; McSweeney, Carol F.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Priestley, Matthew D. K.; Davini, Paolo; Brunner, Lukas; Borchert, Leonard; Menary, Matthew B.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

Research article

|

21 Apr 2023

Research article |

| 21 Apr 2023

Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe

Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023-supplement

Data sets

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data CMIP https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/

tepmo42/cmip6_european_assessment: Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe additional plots T. E. Palmer, C. F. McSweeney, B. B. B. Booth, M. D. K. Priestley, P. Davini, L. Brunner, L. Borchert, and M. B. Menary https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7828845

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation observed by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array-Western Boundary Time Series) array at 26N from 2004 to 2020 (v2020.1) E. Frajka-Williams, B. I. Moat B. I., D. A. Smeed, D. Rayner, W. E. Johns, M. O. Baringer, D. Volkov, D., and J. Collins https://doi.org/10.5285/cc1e34b3-3385-662b-e053-6c86abc03444

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html) N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670

ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home

An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets (https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php) R. Cornes, G. van der Schrier, E. J. M. van den Besselaar, and P. D. Jones https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200

Model code and software

Earth System Model Evaluation Tool ESMValTool https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3401363

Earth System Model Evaluation Tool ESMValTool https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3387139

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Short summary

We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6) based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical processes that are important for representing European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.