Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2023
| 01 Mar 2023
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
ARIA Technologies, 8 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Riccardo Silini
Departament de Fisica, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Edifici Gaia, Rambla Sant Nebridi 22, 08222 Terrassa, Barcelona, Spain
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Short summary
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric...
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