Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Research article
01 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 01 Mar 2023

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou

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Cited articles

Ailliot, P., Allard, D., Monbet, V., and Naveau, P.: Stochastic weather generators: an overview of weather type models, Journal de la Société Française de Statistique, p. 15, (last access: 22 December 2022), 2015. a
Atencia, A. and Zawadzki, I.: A comparison of two techniques for generating nowcasting ensembles, Part I: Lagrangian ensemble technique, Month. Weather Rev., 142, 4036–4052, 2014. a
Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E., Evans, J., and Hoell, A.: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, J. Climate, 29, 8547–8574,, 2016. a
Becker, E. J., Berbery, E. H., and Higgins, R. W.: Modulation of Cold-Season U.S. Daily Precipitation by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Climate, 24, 5157–5166,, 2011. a
Blanchet, J., Stalla, S., and Creutin, J.-D.: Analogy of multiday sequences of atmospheric circulation favoring large rainfall accumulation over the French Alps, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 19, e809,, 2018. a
Short summary
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Final-revised paper