Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Research article
 | 
01 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 01 Mar 2023

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou

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Short summary
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
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