Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Krouma, Meriem; Silini, Riccardo; Yiou, Pascal

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 1

Research article

|

01 Mar 2023

Research article |

| 01 Mar 2023

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou

Data sets

Assessment of stochastic weather forecast based on analogs of circulation M. Krouma http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4524562

Short summary

We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.