Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
Research article
01 Mar 2023
Research article |  | 01 Mar 2023

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs

Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou

Data sets

Assessment of stochastic weather forecast based on analogs of circulation M. Krouma

Short summary
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Final-revised paper