Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 May 2021
Research article |
| 10 May 2021
| 10 May 2021
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Austin P. Hope
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Timothy P. Canty
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Brian F. Bennett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Walter R. Tribett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Ross J. Salawitch
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
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Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current...
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