Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021

Research article 10 May 2021

Research article | 10 May 2021

Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate

Laura A. McBride et al.

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Revised manuscript not accepted
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Cited articles

Arfeuille, F., Weisenstein, D., Mack, H., Rozanov, E., Peter, T., and Brönnimann, S.: Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present, Clim. Past, 10, 359–375,, 2014. 
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Chang., 7, 331–335,, 2017. 
Balmaseda, M. A., Trenberth, K. E., and Källén, E.: Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1754–1759,, 2013. 
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., and Saravan, R.: Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615–618, 1999. 
Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Final-revised paper