Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021

Research article 10 May 2021

Research article | 10 May 2021

Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate

Laura A. McBride et al.

Related authors

Measurement report: Aircraft observations of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds over Hebei Province, China
Sarah E. Benish, Hao He, Xinrong Ren, Sandra J. Roberts, Ross J. Salawitch, Zhanqing Li, Fei Wang, Yuying Wang, Fang Zhang, Min Shao, Sihua Lu, and Russell R. Dickerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14523–14545, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14523-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14523-2020, 2020
Short summary
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary
Reformulating the bromine alpha factor and equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC): evolution of ozone destruction rates of bromine and chlorine in future climate scenarios
J. Eric Klobas, Debra K. Weisenstein, Ross J. Salawitch, and David M. Wilmouth
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9459–9471, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9459-2020, 2020
Short summary
A machine learning examination of hydroxyl radical differences among model simulations for CCMI-1
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Evaluation of Anthropogenic Emissions and Ozone Pollution in the North China Plain: Insights from the Air Chemistry Research in Asia (ARIAs) Campaign
Hao He, Xinrong Ren, Sarah E. Benish, Zhanqing Li, Fei Wang, Yuying Wang, Timothy P. Canty, Xiaobo Dong, Feng Lv, Yongtao Hu, Tong Zhu, and Russell R. Dickerson
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-248,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-248, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
Short summary
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
Short summary
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020
Short summary
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Arfeuille, F., Weisenstein, D., Mack, H., Rozanov, E., Peter, T., and Brönnimann, S.: Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present, Clim. Past, 10, 359–375, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-359-2014, 2014. 
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Chang., 7, 331–335, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3278, 2017. 
Balmaseda, M. A., Trenberth, K. E., and Källén, E.: Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1754–1759, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382, 2013. 
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., and Saravan, R.: Interdecadal interactions between the tropics and midlatitudes in the Pacific basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615–618, 1999. 
Download
Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint