Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021

Research article 10 May 2021

Research article | 10 May 2021

Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate

Laura A. McBride et al.

Data sets

Input and Output Files EM-GC Laura McBride, Austin Hope, Timothy Canty, Brian Bennett, Walter Tribett, and Ross Salawitch https://doi.org/10.5281/Zenodo.4300780

COBE SST NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe.html

RCP Concentration Calculations and Data M. Meinshausen, S. Smith, D. van Vuuren, A. Thomson, T. Masui, and K. Riahi http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/

Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2) NOAA/PSL https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data

Extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI.ext) K. Wolter and M. S. Timlin https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/

PDO Index N. Mantua http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

Global Satellite-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology L. Thomason https://asdc.larc.nasa.gov/project/GloSSAC

Total solar irradiance data Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics https://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/

Climate analysis section J. Fasullo and M. Balmaseda https://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/ocean/oras4.html

SODA: A reanalysis of climate J. Carton https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~ocean/soda3_readme.htm

Global mean OHC time series of 0--700 m L. Cheng http://159.226.119.60/cheng

Four observational time series 1955-2017 L. Cheng http://159.226.119.60/cheng/images_files/New_observational_OHC_0_2000m_record.txt

Global ocean heat and salt content NOAA/NCEI https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/

SSP database (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) – version 2.0 IIASA https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

CMIP6 Forcing Datasets Summary P. Durack and K. Taylor https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pU9IiJvPJwRvIgVaSDdJ4O0Jeorv_2ekEtted34K9cA/edit#heading=h.jdoykiw7tpen

CMIP6 World Climate Research Programme https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/

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Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
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