Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 May 2021
Research article |
| 10 May 2021
| 10 May 2021
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Austin P. Hope
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Timothy P. Canty
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Brian F. Bennett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Walter R. Tribett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Ross J. Salawitch
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
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17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6 S. Schroeter et al. 10.1071/ES23029
- Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India's future climate T. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104137
- Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea T. Vo et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02664-9
- Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters A. Coghlan et al. 10.1111/ele.14375
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al. 10.1029/2020EF001900
- Assessment of climate variability and trends in different physiographic zones of North Western Himalayas M. Shafiq et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-04961-3
- Estimating Contributions of Natural Climate Variability Modes and Greenhouse Gases to Surface Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere from Observations I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1134/S0001433822010091
- Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1007/s00024-023-03317-8
- A methodological approach to identify priority zones for monitoring and assessment of wild bee species under climate change A. Acosta et al. 10.3389/frbee.2024.1329844
- Projected Changes of Day-to-Day Precipitation and Choco Low-Level Jet Relationships over the Far Eastern Tropical Pacific and Western Colombia from Two CMIP6 GCM Models J. Valencia & J. Mejía 10.3390/atmos13111776
- Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1063/5.0088042
- Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies M. Ashfaq et al. 10.1029/2022JD036659
- Implications of climate change on surface temperature in North Indian states: evidence from CMIP6 model ensembles A. Awasthi et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1264757
- Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño N. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2
- Drought characteristics projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios in Syria S. Mathbout et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101581
- Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya S. Khan et al. 10.1007/s10668-023-03476-7
- Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern J. Kong et al. 10.3390/agriculture14040619
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6 S. Schroeter et al. 10.1071/ES23029
- Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India's future climate T. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104137
- Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea T. Vo et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02664-9
- Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters A. Coghlan et al. 10.1111/ele.14375
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al. 10.1029/2020EF001900
- Assessment of climate variability and trends in different physiographic zones of North Western Himalayas M. Shafiq et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-04961-3
- Estimating Contributions of Natural Climate Variability Modes and Greenhouse Gases to Surface Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere from Observations I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1134/S0001433822010091
- Contribution of Solar Irradiance Variations to Surface Air Temperature Trends at Different Latitudes Estimated from Long-term Data I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1007/s00024-023-03317-8
- A methodological approach to identify priority zones for monitoring and assessment of wild bee species under climate change A. Acosta et al. 10.3389/frbee.2024.1329844
- Projected Changes of Day-to-Day Precipitation and Choco Low-Level Jet Relationships over the Far Eastern Tropical Pacific and Western Colombia from Two CMIP6 GCM Models J. Valencia & J. Mejía 10.3390/atmos13111776
- Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1063/5.0088042
- Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies M. Ashfaq et al. 10.1029/2022JD036659
- Implications of climate change on surface temperature in North Indian states: evidence from CMIP6 model ensembles A. Awasthi et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1264757
- Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño N. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2
- Drought characteristics projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios in Syria S. Mathbout et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101581
- Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya S. Khan et al. 10.1007/s10668-023-03476-7
- Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern J. Kong et al. 10.3390/agriculture14040619
Latest update: 25 Apr 2024
Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current...
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