Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 May 2021
Research article |
| 10 May 2021
| 10 May 2021
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Austin P. Hope
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Timothy P. Canty
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Brian F. Bennett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Walter R. Tribett
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Ross J. Salawitch
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
College Park, College Park, 20740, USA
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- Linking local climate scenarios to global warming levels: applicability, prospects and uncertainties B. Becsi & H. Formayer 10.1088/2752-5295/ad574e
- Global-scale future climate projections from ACCESS model contributions to CMIP6 S. Schroeter et al. 10.1071/ES23029
- Evaluating the contribution of methanotrophy kinetics to uncertainty in the soil methane sink H. Dion-Kirschner et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4c7a
- Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India's future climate T. Kumar et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104137
- Assessment of future changes in drought characteristics through stochastic downscaling and CMIP6 over South Korea T. Vo et al. 10.1007/s00477-024-02664-9
- Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters A. Coghlan et al. 10.1111/ele.14375
- Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections Z. Nicholls et al. 10.1029/2020EF001900
- Assessment of climate variability and trends in different physiographic zones of North Western Himalayas M. Shafiq et al. 10.1007/s00704-024-04961-3
- Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections S. Guimarães et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-72787-0
- Estimating Contributions of Natural Climate Variability Modes and Greenhouse Gases to Surface Temperature Trends in the Southern Hemisphere from Observations I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1134/S0001433822010091
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- Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought? Y. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110047
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- Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions S. Karmouche et al. 10.5194/esd-15-689-2024
- Contributions to surface air temperature trends estimated from climate time series: Medium-term causalities I. Mokhov & D. Smirnov 10.1063/5.0088042
- Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs Over the CONUS for Downscaling Studies M. Ashfaq et al. 10.1029/2022JD036659
- Implications of climate change on surface temperature in North Indian states: evidence from CMIP6 model ensembles A. Awasthi et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1264757
- Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño N. Jiang et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-52846-2
- Drought characteristics projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios in Syria S. Mathbout et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101581
- Time series analysis of climatic variability and trends in Shiwalik to Pir Panjal mountain range in the Indian western Himalaya S. Khan et al. 10.1007/s10668-023-03476-7
- Responses of precipitation and water vapor budget on the Chinese Loess Plateau to global land cover change forcing L. Qiu et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121588
- Meteorological Impacts on Rubber Tree Powdery Mildew and Projections of Its Future Spatiotemporal Pattern J. Kong et al. 10.3390/agriculture14040619
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Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current...
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