Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021

Research article 10 May 2021

Research article | 10 May 2021

Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate

Laura A. McBride et al.

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (17 Nov 2020) by Christian Franzke
AR by Laura McBride on behalf of the Authors (08 Dec 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Dec 2020) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Dec 2020)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (29 Dec 2020)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (29 Dec 2020) by Christian Franzke
AR by Laura McBride on behalf of the Authors (08 Mar 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (09 Mar 2021) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (11 Mar 2021)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (20 Mar 2021) by Christian Franzke
AR by Laura McBride on behalf of the Authors (30 Mar 2021)  Author's response    Author's tracked changes    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (01 Apr 2021) by Christian Franzke
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Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
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