Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
Research article
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21 Dec 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 21 Dec 2020

Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?

Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring

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Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P. P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, 2003. 
Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, Nature, 419, 224–232, 2002. 
AMSR-E: AMSR-E Level 3 Sea Surface Temperature for Climate Model Comparison, Ver. 1. PO.DAAC, CA, USA, Remote Sensing Systems, https://doi.org/10.5067/SST00-1D1M1, 2011. 
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Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
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