Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate  sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?

Schlund, Manuel; Lauer, Axel; Gentine, Pierre; Sherwood, Steven C.; Eyring, Veronika

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

21 Dec 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 21 Dec 2020

Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?

Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring

Model code and software

ESMValTool B. Andela, B. Broetz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Mueller, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, K. Adeniyi, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, P. Earnshaw, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, P. Amarjiit, N. Pérez-Zanón, A., Phillips, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, K. and Weigel https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3401363

ESMValCore B. Andela, B. Broetz, L. de Mora, N. Drost, V. Eyring, V., N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Zimmermann, L. Bock, F. Diblen, L. Dreyer, P. Earnshaw, B. Hassler, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, S. Smeets, J. Camphuijsen, B. K. Gier, K. Weigel, M. Hauser, P. Kalverla, E. Galytska, P. Cos-Espuña, P., I. Pelupessy, S. Koirala, T. Stacke, S. Alidoost, and M. Jury https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3387139

Short summary

As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.