Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
21 Dec 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 21 Dec 2020
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Axel Lauer
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Pierre Gentine
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia
University, New York, NY 10027, USA
Earth Institute and Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
Steven C. Sherwood
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for
Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen,
Bremen, Germany
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Improvements in Cloud and Water Vapor Simulations Over the Tropical Oceans in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5 J. Jiang et al. 10.1029/2020EA001520
- A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection M. Hamed et al. 10.1002/joc.7461
- Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming A. Gjermundsen et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00825-x
- The 2000–2012 Global Warming Hiatus More Likely With a Low Climate Sensitivity A. Modak & T. Mauritsen 10.1029/2020GL091779
- Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Changes to Climate Sensitivity Between FGOALS‐g2 and FGOALS‐g3 H. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021JD035852
- Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes H. Shiogama et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature–Based Constraints Y. Liang et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0468.1
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin 10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
- Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks N. Lutsko et al. 10.1029/2021GL092934
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- A traceability analysis system for model evaluation on land carbon dynamics: design and applications J. Zhou et al. 10.1186/s13717-021-00281-w
- A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America C. Mahony et al. 10.1002/joc.7566
- Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models N. Hirota et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abfb9e
- Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble J. Terhaar et al. 10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- Improvements in Cloud and Water Vapor Simulations Over the Tropical Oceans in CMIP6 Compared to CMIP5 J. Jiang et al. 10.1029/2020EA001520
- A novel selection method of CMIP6 GCMs for robust climate projection M. Hamed et al. 10.1002/joc.7461
- Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming A. Gjermundsen et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00825-x
- The 2000–2012 Global Warming Hiatus More Likely With a Low Climate Sensitivity A. Modak & T. Mauritsen 10.1029/2020GL091779
- Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Changes to Climate Sensitivity Between FGOALS‐g2 and FGOALS‐g3 H. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021JD035852
- Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes H. Shiogama et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04310-8
- The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints B. Sanderson et al. 10.5194/esd-12-899-2021
- Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature–Based Constraints Y. Liang et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0468.1
- Probabilistic projections of future warming and climate sensitivity trajectories P. Goodwin 10.1093/oxfclm/kgab007
- Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks N. Lutsko et al. 10.1029/2021GL092934
- Stratification constrains future heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean between 30°S and 55°S T. Bourgeois et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-27979-5
- A traceability analysis system for model evaluation on land carbon dynamics: design and applications J. Zhou et al. 10.1186/s13717-021-00281-w
- A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America C. Mahony et al. 10.1002/joc.7566
- Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models N. Hirota et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abfb9e
- Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble J. Terhaar et al. 10.5194/bg-18-2221-2021
Latest update: 20 Mar 2023
Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes...
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