Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Axel Lauer
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Pierre Gentine
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia
University, New York, NY 10027, USA
Earth Institute and Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
Steven C. Sherwood
Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for
Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia
Veronika Eyring
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), University of Bremen,
Bremen, Germany
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Latest update: 29 Nov 2023
Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes...
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