Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
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21 Dec 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 21 Dec 2020

Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?

Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring

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Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
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