Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018

Special issue: The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
Research article
28 Feb 2018
Research article | 28 Feb 2018

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Michael F. Wehner et al.

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Cited articles

Bacmeister, J. T., Wehner, M. F., Neale, R. B., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Lauritzen, P. H., Caron, J. M., and Truesdale, J. E.: Exploratory High-Resolution Climate Simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), J. Climate, 27, 3073–3099, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00387.1, 2014.
Bacmeister, J. T., Reed, K. A., Hannay, C., Lawrence, P. J., Bates, S. C., Truesdale, J. E., Rosenbloom, N. A., and Levy, M. N.: Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model, Clim. Change, 146, 547–560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x, 2018.
Camargo, S. J.: Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 9880–9902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00549.1, 2013.
Chavas, D. R., Lin, N., and Emanuel, K.: A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3647–3662, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0014.1, 2015.
Chavas, D. R., Reed, K. A., and Knaff, J. A.: Physical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship, Nat. Comm., 8, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01546-9, 2017.
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
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