Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2018

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan

Related authors

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) towards CMIP7
Malcolm John Roberts, Kevin A. Reed, Qing Bao, Joseph J. Barsugli, Suzana J. Camargo, Louis-Philippe Caron, Ping Chang, Cheng-Ta Chen, Hannah M. Christensen, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Ivy Frenger, Neven S. Fučkar, Shabeh ul Hasson, Helene T. Hewitt, Huanping Huang, Daehyun Kim, Chihiro Kodama, Michael Lai, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Ryo Mizuta, Paulo Nobre, Pablo Ortega, Dominique Paquin, Christopher D. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Jon Seddon, Anne Marie Treguier, Chia-Ying Tu, Paul A. Ullrich, Pier Luigi Vidale, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki, Bosong Zhang, Wei Zhang, and Ming Zhao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2582, 2024
Short summary
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3
Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, Kenneth R. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, Eric Guilyardi, Paul Durack, Celine Bonfils, Mark D. Zelinka, Li-Wei Chao, Bo Dong, Charles Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, Jason Boutte, Michael F. Wehner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, Andrew T. Wittenberg, and John Krasting
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3919–3948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024, 2024
Short summary
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
Short summary
ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather
Prabhat, Karthik Kashinath, Mayur Mudigonda, Sol Kim, Lukas Kapp-Schwoerer, Andre Graubner, Ege Karaismailoglu, Leo von Kleist, Thorsten Kurth, Annette Greiner, Ankur Mahesh, Kevin Yang, Colby Lewis, Jiayi Chen, Andrew Lou, Sathyavat Chandran, Ben Toms, Will Chapman, Katherine Dagon, Christine A. Shields, Travis O'Brien, Michael Wehner, and William Collins
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-107-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing
Saïd Qasmi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 685–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Bacmeister, J. T., Wehner, M. F., Neale, R. B., Gettelman, A., Hannay, C., Lauritzen, P. H., Caron, J. M., and Truesdale, J. E.: Exploratory High-Resolution Climate Simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), J. Climate, 27, 3073–3099, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00387.1, 2014.
Bacmeister, J. T., Reed, K. A., Hannay, C., Lawrence, P. J., Bates, S. C., Truesdale, J. E., Rosenbloom, N. A., and Levy, M. N.: Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model, Clim. Change, 146, 547–560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x, 2018.
Camargo, S. J.: Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 9880–9902, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00549.1, 2013.
Chavas, D. R., Lin, N., and Emanuel, K.: A model for the complete radial structure of the tropical cyclone wind field. Part I: Comparison with observed structure, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3647–3662, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0014.1, 2015.
Chavas, D. R., Reed, K. A., and Knaff, J. A.: Physical understanding of the tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship, Nat. Comm., 8, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01546-9, 2017.
Download
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint