Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Research article
17 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2022

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates

Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr

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Cited articles

An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Ham, Y.-G., and Kang, I.-S.: Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming, J. Climate, 21, 3–21, 2008. a
Bayr, T., Wengel, C., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., Lübbecke, J., and Park, W.: Error compensation of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models and its influence on simulated ENSO dynamics, Clim. Dynam., 53, 155–172, 2019. a, b, c
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, É., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018, 2014. a
Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Bayr, T., Reintges, A., and Latif, M.: Uncertainty of ENSO-amplitude projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3875–3888, 2021.  a
Berner, J., Christensen, H. M., and Sardeshmukh, P. D.: Does ENSO regularity increase in a warming climate?, J. Climate, 33, 1247–1259, 2020. a, b, c
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
Final-revised paper