Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
Research article
 | 
17 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2022

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates

Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr

Related authors

The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1715–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Nonlocal and local wind forcing dependence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its depth scale
Tim Rohrschneider, Johanna Baehr, Veit Lüschow, Dian Putrasahan, and Jochem Marotzke
Ocean Sci., 18, 979–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-979-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Does feedback temperature dependence influence the slow mode of the climate response?
Tim Rohrschneider, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-86,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-86, 2021
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Ham, Y.-G., and Kang, I.-S.: Successive modulation of ENSO to the future greenhouse warming, J. Climate, 21, 3–21, 2008. a
Bayr, T., Wengel, C., Latif, M., Dommenget, D., Lübbecke, J., and Park, W.: Error compensation of ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in climate models and its influence on simulated ENSO dynamics, Clim. Dynam., 53, 155–172, 2019. a, b, c
Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, É., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M., and Vialard, J.: ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 42, 1999–2018, 2014. a
Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Bayr, T., Reintges, A., and Latif, M.: Uncertainty of ENSO-amplitude projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Clim. Dynam., 56, 3875–3888, 2021.  a
Berner, J., Christensen, H. M., and Sardeshmukh, P. D.: Does ENSO regularity increase in a warming climate?, J. Climate, 33, 1247–1259, 2020. a, b, c
Download
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint