Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022
Research article
 | 
17 Nov 2022
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2022

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates

Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr

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Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
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