Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
13 Feb 2019
Review |  | 13 Feb 2019

ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt

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Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576,,, 2023
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Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems
Jon Cranko Page, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Jamie Cleverly, Nina Hinko-Najera, Mark J. Hovenden, Yao Liu, Andy J. Pitman, and Kiona Ogle
Biogeosciences, 19, 1913–1932,,, 2022
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A flux tower dataset tailored for land model evaluation
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 449–461,,, 2022
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Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes
Sanaa Hobeichi, Gab Abramowitz, and Jason P. Evans
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A daily 25 km short-latency rainfall product for data-scarce regions based on the integration of the Global Precipitation Measurement mission rainfall and multiple-satellite soil moisture products
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Earth system change: climate prediction
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
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Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
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Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
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Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
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PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G.: Model independence in multi-model ensemble prediction, Aust. Meteorol. Ocean., 59, 3–6, 2010. 
Abramowitz, G. and Gupta, H.: Toward a model space and model independence metric, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05705,, 2008. 
Abramowitz, G. and Bishop, C. H.: Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections, J. Climate, 28, 2332–2348, 2015. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703,, 2010. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Understanding the CMIP3 ensemble, J. Climate, 24, 4529–4538, 2011. 
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Final-revised paper