Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
13 Feb 2019
Review |  | 13 Feb 2019

ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt

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An ensemble estimate of Australian soil organic carbon using machine learning and process-based modelling
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On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
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Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle
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Examining the role of environmental memory in the predictability of carbon and water fluxes across Australian ecosystems
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A flux tower dataset tailored for land model evaluation
Anna M. Ukkola, Gab Abramowitz, and Martin G. De Kauwe
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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G.: Model independence in multi-model ensemble prediction, Aust. Meteorol. Ocean., 59, 3–6, 2010. 
Abramowitz, G. and Gupta, H.: Toward a model space and model independence metric, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05705,, 2008. 
Abramowitz, G. and Bishop, C. H.: Climate Model Dependence and the Ensemble Dependence Transformation of CMIP Projections, J. Climate, 28, 2332–2348, 2015. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703,, 2010. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Understanding the CMIP3 ensemble, J. Climate, 24, 4529–4538, 2011. 
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Final-revised paper