Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
Review
 | 
13 Feb 2019
Review |  | 13 Feb 2019

ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt

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Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
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