Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
Review
 | 
13 Feb 2019
Review |  | 13 Feb 2019

ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt

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Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
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