Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
04 Dec 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Dec 2019

Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Calum Brown, Bumsuk Seo, and Mark Rounsevell

Related authors

Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-449,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-449, 2024
Short summary
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Dynamics of the Earth system: models
Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
Short summary
The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences
Nicola Maher, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Pedro DiNezio, Jeremy Klavans, Sebastian Milinski, Sara C. Sanchez, Samantha Stevenson, Malte F. Stuecker, and Xian Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, 2023
Short summary
Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System
Elias C. Massoud, Lauren Andrews, Rolf Reichle, Andrea Molod, Jongmin Park, Sophie Ruehr, and Manuela Girotto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 147–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

An, L.: Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models, Ecol. Model., 229, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.010, 2012. 
Arneth, A., Brown, C., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.: Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 550–557, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2250, 2014. 
Arthur, W. B.: Chapter 32 Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling, Handb. Comput. Econ., 2, 1551–1564, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0021(05)02032-0, 2006. 
Bai, X., van der Leeuw, S., O'Brien, K., Berkhout, F., Biermann, F., Brondizio, E. S., Cudennec, C., Dearing, J., Duraiappah, A., Glaser, M., Revkin, A., Steffen, W., and Syvitski, J.: Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda, Global Environ. Change, 39, 351–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.09.017, 2016. 
Download
Short summary
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint