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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 04 Dec 2019

Research article | 04 Dec 2019

Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Calum Brown et al.

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Cited articles

An, L.: Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models, Ecol. Model., 229, 25–36, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.010, 2012. 
Arneth, A., Brown, C., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.: Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 550–557, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2250, 2014. 
Arthur, W. B.: Chapter 32 Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling, Handb. Comput. Econ., 2, 1551–1564, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0021(05)02032-0, 2006. 
Bai, X., van der Leeuw, S., O'Brien, K., Berkhout, F., Biermann, F., Brondizio, E. S., Cudennec, C., Dearing, J., Duraiappah, A., Glaser, M., Revkin, A., Steffen, W., and Syvitski, J.: Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda, Global Environ. Change, 39, 351–362, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2015.09.017, 2016. 
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Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it...
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