Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, 2019
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, 2019

Research article 04 Dec 2019

Research article | 04 Dec 2019

Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Calum Brown et al.

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Revised manuscript accepted for ESD

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Cited articles

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Arneth, A., Brown, C., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.: Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 550–557,, 2014. 
Arthur, W. B.: Chapter 32 Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling, Handb. Comput. Econ., 2, 1551–1564,, 2006. 
Bai, X., van der Leeuw, S., O'Brien, K., Berkhout, F., Biermann, F., Brondizio, E. S., Cudennec, C., Dearing, J., Duraiappah, A., Glaser, M., Revkin, A., Steffen, W., and Syvitski, J.: Plausible and desirable futures in the Anthropocene: A new research agenda, Global Environ. Change, 39, 351–362,, 2016. 
Short summary
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.
Final-revised paper