Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
04 Dec 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 04 Dec 2019
| 04 Dec 2019
Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,
Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Bumsuk Seo
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,
Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Mark Rounsevell
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,
Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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Total article views: 7,532 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Total article views: 865 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Participatory assessment of critical thresholds for resilient and sustainable European farming systems W. Paas et al.
- Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making M. Rounsevell et al.
- Simulation modelling in bioeconomy: Unraveling trends, gaps, and insights through bibliometric analysis R. Heck et al.
- Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world J. Millington et al.
- Perspectives of land evaluation of floodplains under conditions of aridification based on the assessment of ecosystem services D. Lóczy et al.
- Using the Nature Futures Framework as a lens for developing plural land use scenarios for Europe for 2050 Y. Dou et al.
- Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling B. Beckage et al.
- Envisioning nature-positive futures for Europe: inspiring transformative change at the biodiversity nexus A. Lazurko et al.
- Spatiotemporal scenarios of socioeconomic futures in Germany K. Winkler et al.
- Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal O. Perkins et al.
- Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics? P. Müller et al.
- A coupled land use change-ecohydrological model for multi-seasonal arid agricultural systems: an Egyptian case study A. Sattar et al.
- Modelling the bioeconomy: Emerging approaches to address policy needs A. Pyka et al.
- A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter’s Theory of Collapse F. Schunck et al.
- Are agricultural commodity production systems at risk from local biodiversity loss? C. Maney et al.
- Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model J. Ge et al.
- Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system A. Staccione et al.
- The power of bridging decision scales: Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis T. Filatova et al.
- How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change C. Brown et al.
- Trade-off decisions in ecosystem management for poverty alleviation M. Schaafsma et al.
- Simulating endogenous institutional behaviour and policy implementation pathways within the land system Y. Zeng et al.
- Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System C. Brown et al.
- Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling Y. Zeng et al.
- Soil degradation in Europe is projected to accelerate under changing land use and climate M. Afshar et al.
- How can social–ecological system models simulate the emergence of social–ecological crises? C. Brown et al.
- Emerging regional perspectives of global climate change scenarios: a systematic review S. Pedde et al.
- Values, rules, and knowledge: Understanding and enabling land use change decisions as adaptation to climate change N. Cradock-Henry et al.
- InsNet-CRAFTY v1.0: integrating institutional network dynamics powered by large language models with land use change simulation Y. Zeng et al.
- Exploring outcome-driven policymaking on protected areas with an endogenous institutional model Y. Zeng et al.
- Modelling Human-Fire Interactions: Combining Alternative Perspectives and Approaches A. Ford et al.
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Participatory assessment of critical thresholds for resilient and sustainable European farming systems W. Paas et al.
- Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making M. Rounsevell et al.
- Simulation modelling in bioeconomy: Unraveling trends, gaps, and insights through bibliometric analysis R. Heck et al.
- Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world J. Millington et al.
- Perspectives of land evaluation of floodplains under conditions of aridification based on the assessment of ecosystem services D. Lóczy et al.
- Using the Nature Futures Framework as a lens for developing plural land use scenarios for Europe for 2050 Y. Dou et al.
- Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling B. Beckage et al.
- Envisioning nature-positive futures for Europe: inspiring transformative change at the biodiversity nexus A. Lazurko et al.
- Spatiotemporal scenarios of socioeconomic futures in Germany K. Winkler et al.
- Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal O. Perkins et al.
- Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics? P. Müller et al.
- A coupled land use change-ecohydrological model for multi-seasonal arid agricultural systems: an Egyptian case study A. Sattar et al.
- Modelling the bioeconomy: Emerging approaches to address policy needs A. Pyka et al.
- A Dynamic Network Model of Societal Complexity and Resilience Inspired by Tainter’s Theory of Collapse F. Schunck et al.
- Are agricultural commodity production systems at risk from local biodiversity loss? C. Maney et al.
- Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model J. Ge et al.
- Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system A. Staccione et al.
- The power of bridging decision scales: Model coupling for advanced climate policy analysis T. Filatova et al.
- How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change C. Brown et al.
- Trade-off decisions in ecosystem management for poverty alleviation M. Schaafsma et al.
- Simulating endogenous institutional behaviour and policy implementation pathways within the land system Y. Zeng et al.
- Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System C. Brown et al.
- Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling Y. Zeng et al.
- Soil degradation in Europe is projected to accelerate under changing land use and climate M. Afshar et al.
- How can social–ecological system models simulate the emergence of social–ecological crises? C. Brown et al.
- Emerging regional perspectives of global climate change scenarios: a systematic review S. Pedde et al.
- Values, rules, and knowledge: Understanding and enabling land use change decisions as adaptation to climate change N. Cradock-Henry et al.
- InsNet-CRAFTY v1.0: integrating institutional network dynamics powered by large language models with land use change simulation Y. Zeng et al.
- Exploring outcome-driven policymaking on protected areas with an endogenous institutional model Y. Zeng et al.
- Modelling Human-Fire Interactions: Combining Alternative Perspectives and Approaches A. Ford et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 06 May 2026
Short summary
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it...
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