Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Brown, Calum; Seo, Bumsuk; Rounsevell, Mark

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019

ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 4

Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ESD | Articles | Volume 10, issue 4

Research article 04 Dec 2019

Research article | 04 Dec 2019

Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Calum Brown et al.

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019-supplement

Data sets

Competition for Resources Between Agent Functional Types (CRAFTY) C. Brown, B. Seo, and M. Rounsevell https://landchange.imk-ifu.kit.edu/CRAFTY

Short summary

Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.

Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it...