Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018

Research article 27 Apr 2018

Research article | 27 Apr 2018

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

Jiawei Liu et al.

Related authors

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on interannual variability in spring aerosols over East Asia
Anbao Zhu, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma, and Shuhui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5919–5933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5919-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5919-2021, 2021
North Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere above
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets
Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, 2021
Short summary
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
Short summary
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Abe, M., Shiogama, H., Nozawa, T., and Emori, S.: Estimation of future surface temperature changes constrained using the future-present correlated modes in inter-model variability of CMIP3 multimodel simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015111, 2011. 
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2, 2003. 
Boé, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. 
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2805–2821, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3, 2012. 
Chen, H. and Sun, J.: Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 121, 55–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0257-5, 2013. 
Download
Short summary
A novel method based on present–future relationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint