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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 27 Apr 2018

Research article | 27 Apr 2018

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

Jiawei Liu et al.

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Cited articles

Abe, M., Shiogama, H., Nozawa, T., and Emori, S.: Estimation of future surface temperature changes constrained using the future-present correlated modes in inter-model variability of CMIP3 multimodel simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015111, 2011. 
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2, 2003. 
Boé, J., Hall, A., and Qu, X.: September sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean projected to vanish by 2100, Nat. Geosci., 2, 341–343, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo467, 2009. 
Bracegirdle, T. J. and Stephenson, D. B.: Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2805–2821, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3, 2012. 
Chen, H. and Sun, J.: Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 121, 55–77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0257-5, 2013. 
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A novel method based on present–future relationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
A novel method based on present–future relationship in observed climate and model-simulated...
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