Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018

Research article 27 Apr 2018

Research article | 27 Apr 2018

Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

Jiawei Liu et al.

Data sets

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1

The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) R. F. Adler, G. J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P.-P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, U. Schneider, S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, A., J. Susskind, P. Arkin, and E. Nelkin https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system D. P. Dee, S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J. J. Morcrette, B. K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J. N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828

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Short summary
A novel method based on present–future relationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
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