Articles | Volume 8, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-477-2017
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2017
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2017

Sensitivity experiments on the response of Vb cyclones to sea surface temperature and soil moisture changes

Martina Messmer, Juan José Gómez-Navarro, and Christoph C. Raible

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Awan, N. K. and Formayer, H.: Cutoff low systems and their relevance to large-scale extreme precipitation in the European Alps, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 129, 149–158, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1767-0, 2016.
Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353910, 1997.
Blender, R., Raible, C. C., and Franzke, C. L. E.: Vorticity and Geopotential Height Extreme Values in ERA-Interim Data during Boreal Winters, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 634–640, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2944, 2016.
Fischer, E. M. and Knutti, R.: Detection of spatially aggregated changes in temperature and precipitation extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 547–554, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058499, 2014.
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Short summary
Low-pressure systems of type Vb may trigger heavy rainfall events over central Europe. This study aims at analysing the relative role of their moisture sources. For this, a set of sensitivity experiments encompassing changes in soil moisture and Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea SSTs are carried out with WRF. The latter moisture source stands out as the most relevant one. Furthermore, the regions most affected by Vb events in the future might be shifted from the Alps to the Balkan Peninsula.
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