Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Research article
10 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 10 Nov 2016

The use of regression for assessing a seasonal forecast model experiment

Rasmus E. Benestad, Retish Senan, and Yvan Orsolini

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Cited articles

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Baldwin, M. P. and Dunkerton, T. J.: Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes, Science, 294, 581–584, 2001.
Baldwin, M. P., Stephenson, D. B., Thompson, D. W. J., Dunkerton, T. J., Charlton, A. J., and O'Neil, A.: Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts, Science, 301, 636–640, 2003.
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1655–1664,, 2010.
Baril, C. P., Denis, J.-B., Wustman, R., and van Eeuwijk, F. A.: Analysing Genotype by Environment Interaction in Dutch Potato Variety Trials Using Factorial Regression, Euphytica, 84, 23–29,, 1995.
Short summary
Seasonal predictions have been challenging for mid-latitude regions such as Europe, and we suspect that one reason may be due to subjective choices in how the forecast models are configured. We tested how (1) the inclusion and omission of the representation of the stratosphere affect the predictions and (2) the degree of detail in the sea-ice description. The test was carried out with a set of simulations (experiments) using a technique known as "factorial regression".
Final-revised paper