Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-223-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jun 2014
Research article |
| 25 Jun 2014
Inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the sea-ice response to volcanic forcing simulated by MPI-ESM (COSMOS-Mill)
D. Zanchettin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock, Kühlungsborn, Germany
C. Timmreck
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
J. Bader
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Uni Climate, Uni Reasearch and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
A. Beitsch
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
H.-F. Graf
University of Cambridge, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
J. H. Jungclaus
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Related authors
No articles found.
Rob Wilson, Ignacio Mundo, Lauren Marshall, Emily Reid, Michael Sigl, Anja Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, Shih-Wei Fang, Rory Abernethy, Valerie Daux, and Ricardo Villalba
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-4785, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We use tree rings from southern South America to reconstruct summer temperatures back to 1382, providing the first long-term Southern Hemisphere record that clearly captures volcanic cooling. Our results, supported by climate models, show that major tropical eruptions caused substantial cooling in northern Patagonia, but little cooling in Tasmania and New Zealand. The study highlights the importance of tree-ring density measurements for understanding past volcanic impacts on climate.
Katharina Perny, Timofei Sukhodolov, Ales Kuchar, Pavle Arsenovic, Bernadette Rosati, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Andrin Jörimann, Anton Laakso, Graham Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, Claudia Timmreck, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, and Harald E. Rieder
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 26, 10997–11025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10997-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-10997-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Major volcanic eruptions, such as the one of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991, can inject large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The resulting aerosol cloud affects stratospheric temperature and thereby middle atmospheric dynamics and chemistry. Here we investigate similarities and differences across an ensemble of climate models in reproducing the stratospheric temperature signal following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
Andreas Wernecke, Thomas Lavergne, Stefan Kern, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 20, 3783–3793, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3783-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-3783-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the types and size of uncertainties in satellite measurements of the global sea ice cover. These measurements give insights into the state of the climate system and quality of climate models. We derive uncertainties for one satellite product and compare it with other products. We find that offsets do play a role for measurements of the total sea ice cover, but also for estimates of its change. This calls for further investigations into the reasons for these offsets.
Evelien J. C. van Dijk, Felix Riede, Claudia Timmreck, Kirstin Krüger, and Michael Sigl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3266, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate one of the largest eruptions of the Holocene to study the impacts on global climate and society. The simulations reveal severe and diverging climate anomalies in different regions. This likely had significant impact on the main regions of human settlements, with crop failures due to drought, and potential flooding in areas with extreme precipitation. Studying very large eruptions is important for understanding the risks of these events, that the world is ill-prepared for.
Sian Megan Chilcott, Malte Meinshausen, and Dirk Notz
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4965–4982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are expensive to run and often underestimate how sensitive Arctic sea ice is to climate change. To address this, we developed a simple model that emulates the response of sea ice to global warming. We find that the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that will avoid a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean are lower than previous estimates of 821 Gt of CO2. Our model also provides insights into the future of winter sea ice, examining a larger ensemble than previously possible.
Saskia Kahl, Carolin Mehlmann, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 19, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-129-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ice mélange, a mixture of sea ice and icebergs, can impact sea-ice–ocean interactions. But climate models do not yet represent it due to computational limits. To address this shortcoming and include ice mélange into climate models, we suggest representing icebergs as particles. We integrate their feedback into mathematical equations used to model the sea-ice motion in climate models. The setup is computationally efficient due to the iceberg particle usage and enables a realistic representation.
Moritz Günther, Hauke Schmidt, Claudia Timmreck, and Matthew Toohey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 7203–7225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-7203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol has been shown to cause pronounced cooling in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans. Using a climate model, we show that this arises from enhanced meridional energy export via the stratosphere. The aerosol causes stratospheric heating and thus an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation that accomplishes this transport. Our findings highlight the importance of circulation adjustments and surface perspectives on forcing for understanding temperature responses.
Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas J. Aubry, Claudia Timmreck, Anja Schmidt, Lieven Clarisse, Fred Prata, Nicolas Theys, Andrew T. Prata, Graham Mann, Hyundeok Choi, Simon Carn, Richard Rigby, Susan C. Loughlin, and John A. Stevenson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5765–5782, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5765-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2019 Raikoke eruption (Kamchatka, Russia) generated one of the largest emissions of particles and gases into the stratosphere since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The Volcano Response (VolRes) initiative, an international effort, provided a platform for the community to share information about this eruption and assess its climate impact. The eruption led to a minor global surface cooling of 0.02 °C in 2020 which is negligible relative to warming induced by human greenhouse gas emissions.
Andreas Wernecke, Dirk Notz, Stefan Kern, and Thomas Lavergne
The Cryosphere, 18, 2473–2486, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The total Arctic sea-ice area (SIA), which is an important climate indicator, is routinely monitored with the help of satellite measurements. Uncertainties in observations of sea-ice concentration (SIC) partly cancel out when summed up to the total SIA, but the degree to which this is happening has been unclear. Here we find that the uncertainty daily SIA estimates, based on uncertainties in SIC, are about 300 000 km2. The 2002 to 2017 September decline in SIA is approx. 105 000 ± 9000 km2 a−1.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
Evelien van Dijk, Ingar Mørkestøl Gundersen, Anna de Bode, Helge Høeg, Kjetil Loftsgarden, Frode Iversen, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 19, 357–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-357-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years as characterized by great societal changes. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on climate and society in southern Norway. The combined climate and growing degree day models and high-resolution pollen and archaeological records reveal that the northern and western sites are vulnerable to crop failure with possible abandonment of farms, whereas the southeastern site is more resilient.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Abigail Smith, Alexandra Jahn, Clara Burgard, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 16, 3235–3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The timing of Arctic sea ice melt each year is an important metric for assessing how sea ice in climate models compares to satellite observations. Here, we utilize a new tool for creating more direct comparisons between climate model projections and satellite observations of Arctic sea ice, such that the melt onset dates are defined the same way. This tool allows us to identify climate model biases more clearly and gain more information about what the satellites are observing.
Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Clim. Past, 18, 1601–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1601-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A double volcanic eruption in 536 and 540 CE caused one of the coldest decades during the last 2000 years. We analyzed new climate model simulations from that period and found a cooling of up to 2°C and a sea-ice extent up to 200 km further south. Complex interactions between sea ice and ocean circulation lead to a reduction in the northward ocean heat transport, which makes the sea ice extend further south; this in turn leads to a surface cooling up to 20 years after the eruptions.
Davide Zanchettin, Claudia Timmreck, Myriam Khodri, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Slimane Bekki, Jason Cole, Shih-Wei Fang, Wuhu Feng, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Johnson, Nicolas Lebas, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Sara Rubinetti, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Helen Weierbach
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2265–2292, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2265-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides metadata and first analyses of the volc-pinatubo-full experiment of CMIP6-VolMIP. Results from six Earth system models reveal significant differences in radiative flux anomalies that trace back to different implementations of volcanic forcing. Surface responses are in contrast overall consistent across models, reflecting the large spread due to internal variability. A second phase of VolMIP shall consider both aspects toward improved protocol for volc-pinatubo-full.
Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, and Michal Kucera
Clim. Past, 17, 2577–2581, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2577-2021, 2021
Elizaveta Malinina, Alexei Rozanov, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Carlo Arosio, Felix Wrana, Claudia Timmreck, Christian von Savigny, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14871–14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper, changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption were analyzed using OMPS-LP observations. The eruption was also simulated with the MAECHAM5-HAM global climate model. Generally, the model and observations agree very well. We attribute the good consistency of the results to a precisely determined altitude and mass of the volcanic injection, as well as nudging of the meteorological data. The radiative forcing from the eruption was estimated to be −0.13 W m−2.
Cited articles
Ahmed, M., Anchukaitis, K. J., Asrat, A., Borgaonkar, H. P., Braida, M., Buckley, B. M., Büntgen, U., Chase, B. M., Christie, D. A., Cook, E. R., Curran, M. A. J., Diaz, H. F., Esper, J., Fan, Z., Gaire, N. P., Ge, Q., Gergis, J., González-Rouco. J. F., Goosse, H., Grab, S. W., Graham, N., Graham, R., Grosjean, M., Hanhijärvi, S. T., Kaufman, D. S., Kiefer, T., Kimura, K., Korhola, A. A., Krusic, P. J., Lara, A., Lézine, A., Ljungqvist, F. C., Lorrey, A. M., Luterbacher, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., McCarroll, D., McConnell, J. R., McKay, N. P., Morales, M. S., Moy, A. D., Mulvaney, R., Mundo, I. A., Nakatsuka, T., Nash, D. J., Neukom, R., Nicholson, S. E., Oerter, H., Palmer, J. G., Phipps, S. J., Prieto, M. R., Rivera, A., Sano, M., Severi, M., Shanahan, T. M., Shao, X., Shi, F., Sigl, M., Smerdon, J. E., Solomina, O. N., Steig, E. J., Stenni, B., Thamban, M., Trouet, V., Turney, C. S. M., Umer, M., van Ommen, T., Verschuren, D., Viau, A. E., Villalba, R., Vinther, B. M., von Gunten, L., Wagner, S., Wahl, E. R., Wanner, H., Werner, J. P., White, J. W. C., Yasue, K., and Zorita, E.: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1797, 2013.
Anderson, R. K., Miller, G. H., Briner, J. P., Lifton, N. A., and DeVogel, S. B.: A millennial perspective on Arctic warming from 14C in quartz and plants emerging from beneath ice caps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032057, 2008.
Barlyaeva, T. V., Mironova, I. A., and Ponyavin, D. I.: Nature of decadal variations in the climatic data of the second half of the 20th century, Dokl. Earth. Sci., 425A, 419–423, 2009.
Beitsch, A., Jungclaus, J. H., and Zanchettin, D.: Patterns of decadal-scale Arctic warming events in simulated climate, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2004-5, in press, 2013.
Bitz, C. M. and Polvani, L. M.: Antarctic climate response to stratospheric ozone depletion in a fine resolution ocean climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053393, 2012.
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E.: Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., and Jones, P. D.: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, https://doi.org/12110.11029/12005JD006548, 2006.
Charlton-Perez, A. J., Baldwin, M. P., Birner, T., Black, R. X., Butler, A. H., Calvo, N., Davis, N. A., Gerber, E. P., Gillett, N., Hardiman, S., Kim, J., Krüger, K., Lee, Y.-Y., Manzini, E., McDaniel, B. A., Polvani, L., Reichler, T., Shaw, T. A., Sigmond, M., Son, S.-W., Toohey, M., Wilcox, L., Yoden, S., Christiansen, B., Lott, F., Shindell, D., Yukimoto, S., and Watanabe, S.: On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2494–2505, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50125, 2013.
Chylek, P., Folland, C. K., Lesins, G., and Dubey, M. K.: Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042793, 2010.
Crowley, T. J. and Unterman, M. B.: Technical details concerning development of a 1200 yr proxy index for global volcanism, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 187–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-187-2013, 2013.
Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutz, K., Cole-Dai, J., and Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the little ice age, PAGES News, 16, 22–23, 2008.
Duncan, R. P., Fenwick, P., Palmer, J. G., McGlone, M. S., and Turney, C. S. M.: Non-uniform interhemispheric temperature trends over the past 550 years, Clim. Dynam., 35, 1429–1438, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0794-2, 2010.
Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, J. F., Raible, C. C., Ammann, C. M., Barriopedro, D., Garc\'ia-Bustamante, E., Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Phipps, S. J., Servonnat, J., Swingedouw, D., Tett, S. F. B., Wagner, S., Yiou, P., and Zorita, E.: Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium, Clim. Past, 9, 393–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013.
Fischer, E., Luterbacher, J., Zorita, E., Tett, S. F. B., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027992, 2007.
Gillett, N. P. and Thompson, D. W. J.: Simulation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change, Science, 302, 273–275, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1087440, 2003.
Graf, H. F. and Zanchettin, D.: Central Pacific El Niño, the "subtropical bridge" and Eurasian Climate, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D01102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016493, 2012.
Griffies, S. M., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G., Chassignet, E. P., England, M. H., Gerdes, R., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Hazeleger, W., Jungclaus, J., Large, W. G., Madec, G., Pirani, A., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Gupta, A. S., Severijns, C. A., Simmons, H. L., Treguier, A. M., Winton, M., Yeager, S., and Yin, J.: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs), Ocean. Modell., 26, 1–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007, 2009.
Guilyardi, E., Wittenberg, A., Fedorov, A., Collins, M., Wang, C. Z., Capotondi, A., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Stockdale, T.: Understanding El Niño in ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models: Progress and challenges, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 325–340, 2009.
Henriksson, S. V., Räisänen, P., Silén, J., and Laaksonen, A.: Quasiperiodic climate variability with a period of 50–80 years: Fourier analysis of measurements and Earth System Model simulations, Clim. Dynam., 39, 7–8, 1999–2011, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1341-0, 2012.
Heuzé, C., Heywood, K. J., Stevens, D. P., and Ridley, J. K.: Southern Ocean bottom water characteristics in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1409–1414, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50287, 2013.
Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Wolff, E. W., Lang, N. J., Singarayer, J. S., Valdes, P. J., and Stocker, T. F.: Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials, Clim. Past, 6, 431–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-431-2010, 2010.
Jones, G. S., Gregory, J. M., Stott, P. A., Tett, S. F. B., and Thorpe, R. B.: An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption, Clim. Dynam., 25, 725–738, 2005.
Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Luo, J. J., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Mikolajewicz, U., and Roeckner, F.: Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Climate, 19, 3952–3972, 2006.
Jungclaus, J. H., Lorenz, S. J., Timmreck, C., Reick, C. H., Brovkin, V., Six, K., Segschneider, J., Giorgetta, M. A., Crowley, T. J., Pongratz, J., Krivova, N. A., Vieira, L. E., Solanki, S. K., Klocke, D., Botzet, M., Esch, M., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Raddatz, T. J., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., Widmann, H., Claussen, M., Stevens, B., and Marotzke, J.: Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium, Clim. Past, 6, 723–737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-723-2010, 2010.
Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., and von Storch, J. S.: Characteristics of the ocean simulations in MPIOM, the ocean component of the MPI-Earth system model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 422–446, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20023, 2013.
Karpechko, A. Y., Gillett, N. P., Dall'Amico, M., and Gray, L. J.: Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions in coupled climate models, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1813–1822, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.683, 2010.
Keith, D. W.: Meridional energy transport: uncertainty in zonal means, Tellus, 47A, 30–44, 1995.
King, J.: Climate science: A resolution of the Antarctic paradox, Nature, 505, 491–492, https://doi.org/10.1038/505491a, 2014.
Kinnard, G., Zdanowicz, C. M., Fisher, D. A., Isakkson, E., de Vernal, A., and Thompson, L. G.: Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years, Nature, 479, 509–513, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10581, 2011.
Kirkman, C. and Bitz, C. M.: The Effect of the Sea Ice Freshwater Flux on Southern Ocean Temperatures in CCSM3: Deep Ocean Warming and Delayed Surface Warming, J. Climate, 24, 2224–2237, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3625, 2011.
Koldunov, N. V., Stammer, D., and Marotzke, J.: Present-Day Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the Coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model, J. Climate, 23, 2520–2543, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3065.1, 2010.
Landrum, L., Holland, M. M., Schneider, D. P., and Hunke, E.: Antarctic Sea Ice Climatology, Variability, and Late Twentieth-Century Change in CCSM4, J. Climate, 25, 4817–4838, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00289.1, 2012.
Li, C., Notz, D., Tietsche, S., and Marotzke, J.: The Transient versus the Equilibrium Response of Sea Ice to Global Warming, J. Climate, 26, 5624–5636, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00492.1, 2013.
Li, J., Xie, S.-P., Cook, E. R., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Johnson, N. C., Chen, F., D'Arrigo, R., Fowler, A. M., Gou, X., and Fang, K.: El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries, Nature Cl. Ch., 3, 822–826, https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1936, 2013.
Maksym, T., Stammerjohn, S. E., Ackley, S., and Massom, R.: Antarctic sea ice – A polar opposite?, Oceanography, 25, 140–151, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2012.88, 2012.
Marsland, S. J., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Latif, M., and Röske, F.: The Max Planck Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates, Ocean Modell., 5, 91–127, 2003.
Martin, T., Park, W., and Latif, M.: Multi-centennial variability controlled by Southern Ocean convection in the Kiel Climate Model, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2005–2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1586-7, 2013.
Massonnet, F., Mathiot, P., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Beatty, C. K., Vancoppenolle, M., and Lavergne, T.: Model reconstruction of the Antarctic sea ice thickness and volume changes over 1980–2008 using data assimilation, Ocean. Modell., 64, 67-75, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.01.003, 2013.
Meier, W. N., Gallaher, D., and Campbell, G. G.: New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery, The Cryosphere, 7, 699–705, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-699-2013, 2013.
Miller, G. H., Geirsdóttir, \'A., Zhong, Y., Larsen, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Refsnider, K. A., Lehman, S. J., Southon, J. R., Anderson, C., Björnsson, H., and Thordarson, T.: Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L02708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050168, 2012.
Niemeier, U., Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Kinne, S., Rast, S., and Self, S.: Initial fate of fine ash and sulfur from large volcanic eruptions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9043–9057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-9043-2009, 2009.
Notz, D. and Marotzke, J.: Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051094, 2012.
Omrani, N.-E., Keenlyside, N., Bader, J., and Manzini, E.: Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions, Clim. Dynam., 42, 649–663, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1860-3, 2014.
Park, W. and Latif, M.: Multidecadal and multicentennial variability of the meridional overturning circulation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035779, 2008.
Parkinson, C. L.: Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider linkages: insights revealed from models and observations, Antarctic Sci., 16, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102004002214, 2004.
Polvani, L. M. and Smith, K. L.: Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3195–3199, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50578, 2013.
Raddatz, T. J., Reick, C. H., Knorr, W., Kattge, J. Roeckner, E. Schnur, R. Schnitzler, K.-G., Wetzel, P., and Jungclaus, J.: Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate-carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?, Clim. Dynam., 29, 565–574, 2007.
Robock, A., Adams, T., Moore, M., Oman, L., and Stenchikov, G.: Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031403, 2007.
Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S., Kornblueh, L., Manzini, E., Schlese, U., and Schulzweida, U.: Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model, J. Climate, 19, 3771–3791, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3824.1, 2006.
Russell, J. L., Stouffer, R. J., and Dixon, K. W.: Intercomparison of the Southern Ocean Circulations in IPCC Coupled Model Control Simulations, J. Climate, 19, 4560–4575, 2006.
Sallée, J.-B., Shuckburgh, E., Bruneau, N., Meijers, A. J. S., Bracegirdle, T. J., and Wang, Z.: Assessment of Southern Ocean mixed layer depths in CMIP5 models: Historical bias and forcing response, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 118, 1845–1862, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20157, 2013.
Schaefer, J. M., Denton, G. H., Kaplan, M., Putnam, A., Finkel, R. C., Barrell, D. J. A., Andersen, B. G., Schwartz, R., Mackintosh, A., Chinn, T., and Schlüchter, C.: High-frequency Holocene glacier fluctuations in New Zealand differ from the northern signature, Science, 324, 622–625, 2009.
Schleussner, C. F. and Feulner, G.: A volcanically triggered regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as a possible origin of the Little Ice Age, Clim. Past, 9, 1321–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, 2013.
Schubert, J. J., Stevens, B., and Crueger, T.: Madden-Julian oscillation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model: Over the last and into the next millennium, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., 5, 71–84, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000180, 2013.
Segschneider, J., Beitsch, A., Timmreck, C., Brovkin, V., Ilyina, T., Jungclaus, J., Lorenz, S. J., Six, K. D., and Zanchettin, D.: Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations, Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013.
Shakun, J. D., Clark, P. U., He, F., Marcott, S. A., Mix, A. C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A., and Bard, E.: Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation, Nature, 484, 49–54, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10915, 2012.
Sigmond, M. and Fyfe, J. C.: The Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Ozone Hole in Climate Models, J. Climate, 27, 1336–1342, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00590.1, 2014.
Simpkins, G. R., Ciasto, L. M., Thompson, D. W. J., and England, M. H.: Seasonal Relationships between Large-Scale Climate Variability and Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration, J. Climate, 25, 5451–5469, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00367.1, 2012.
Simpkins, G. R., Ciasto, L. M., and England, M. H.: Observed variations in multidecadal Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979–2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50715, 2013.
Simpson, I., Hitchcock, P., Shepherd, T., and Scinocca, J.: Southern Annular Mode Dynamics in Observations and Models. Part 1: the Influence of Climatological Zonal Wind Biases in a Comprehensive GCM, J. Climate, 26, 3953–-3967, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00348.1, 2012.
Stammerjohn, S., Massom, R., Rind, D., and Martinson, D.: Regions of rapid sea ice change: An inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050874, 2012.
Stenchikov, G., Hamilton, K., Stouffer, R. J., Robock, A., Ramaswamy, V., Santer, B., and Graf, H.-F.: Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D07107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006286, 2006.
Stenchikov, G., Delworth, T. L., Ramaswamy, V., Stouffer, R. J., Wittenberg, A., and Zeng, F.: Volcanic signals in oceans, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D16104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011673, 2009.
Stier, P., Feichter, J., Kinne, S., Kloster, S., Vignati, E., Wilson, J., Ganzeveld, L., Tegen, I., Werner, M., Balkanski, Y., Schulz, M., Boucher, O., Minikin, A., and Petzold, A.: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1125–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-1125-2005, 2005.
Stössel, A., Zhang, Z., and Vihma, T.: The effect of alternative real-time wind forcing on Southern Ocean sea-ice simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C11021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007328, 2011.
Stouffer, R. J., Broccoli, A. J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Gudgel, R., Held, I., Hemler, R., Knutson, T., Lee, H.-C., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Soden, B., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., and Zeng, F.: GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response, J. Climate, 19, 723–740, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3632.1, 2006.
Stroeve, J. C., Kattsov, V., Barrett, A. P., Serreze, M. C., Pavlova, T., Holland, M. M., and Meier, W. N.: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676, 2012.
Swart, N. C. and Fyfe, J. C.: Observed and simulated changes in southern hemisphere surface westerlies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L16711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052810, 2012.
Thompson, D. W. J., Wallace, J. M., Jones, P. D., and Kennedy, J. J.: Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights, J. Climate, 22, 6120–6141, 2009.
Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045698, 2011.
Timmreck, C.: Modeling the climatic effects of large volcanic eruptions, WIREs Clim. Change, 3, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.192, 2012.
Timmreck, C., Lorenz, S. J., Crowley, T. J., Kinne S., Raddatz, T. J., Thomas, M. A., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040083, 2009.
Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Lorenz, S. J., Niemeier, U., Zanchettin, D., Matei, D., Jungclaus, J. H., and Crowley, T. J.: Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045464, 2010.
Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Zanchettin, D., Hagemann, S., Kleinen, T., and Krüger, K.: Climate response to the Toba eruption: regional changes, Quaternary Int., 258, 30–44, 2012.
Turner, J., Comiso, J. C., Marshall, G. J., Lachlan-Cope, T. A., Bracegirdle, T., Maksym, T., Meredith, M. P., Wang, Z., and Orr, A.: Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037524, 2009.
Turner, J., Bracegirdle, T., Phillips, T., Marshall, G. J., and Hosking, J. S.: An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models, J. Climate, 26, 1473–1484, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1, 2013.
Wang, M. and Overland, J. E. E.: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years-an update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052868, 2012.
Weber, M. E., Clark, P. U., Ricken, W., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and Kuhn, G.: Interhemispheric Ice-Sheet Synchronicity During the Last Glacial Maximum, Science, 334, 1265–1269, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1209299, 2011.
Weijer, W., Sloyan, B. M., Maltrud, M. E., Jeffery, N., Hecht, M. W., Hartin, C. A., van Sebille, E., Wainer, I., and Landrum, L.: The Southern Ocean and its climate in CCSM4, J. Climate, 25, 2652–2675, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00302.1, 2012.
Wetzel, P., Winguth, A., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Sea-to-air CO2 fluxes from 1948 to 2003, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB2005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002339, 2005.
Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Graf, H.-F., Rubino, A., Lorenz, S., Lohmann, K., Krueger, K., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions, Clim. Dynam., 39, 419–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1167-1, 2012.
Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Graf, H. F., Lorenz, S. J., Luterbacher, J., Timmreck, C., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 4090–4106, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50229, 2013a.
Zanchettin, D., Rubino, A., Matei, D., Bothe, O., and Jungclaus, J. H.: Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium, Clim. Dynam., 40, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1361-9, 2013b.
Zhang, J.: Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice under Warming Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions, J. Climate, 20, 2515–2529, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4136.1, 2007.
Zhang, J.: Modeling the impact of wind intensification on Antarctic sea ice volume, J. Climate, 27, 202–214, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1, 2013.
Zhong, Y., Miller, G. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Holland, M. M., Bailey, D. A., Schneider, D. P., and Geirsdottir, A.: Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism, Clim. Dynam., 37, 2373–2387, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0967-z, 2011.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint