Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems
Alizée Chemison
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Dimitri Defrance
The Climate Data factory, Paris, France
Gilles Ramstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Cyril Caminade
Earth System Physics Department, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Anne Mouchet, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Camille Risi, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6627–6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water isotopes (δ18O, δD) are one of the most widely used proxies in ocean climate research. Previous studies using water isotope observations and modelling have highlighted the importance of understanding spatial and temporal isotopic variability for a quantitative interpretation of these tracers. Here we present the first results of a high-resolution regional dynamical model (at 1/12° horizontal resolution) developed for the Mediterranean Sea, one of the hotspots of ongoing climate change.
Meng Zuo, Yong Sun, Yan Zhao, Gilles Ramstein, Lin Ding, and Tianjun Zhou
Clim. Past, 20, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores the intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) during the Middle Miocene (17–12 Ma). Using an advanced model, we reveal that the uplift of the Iranian Plateau significantly influenced the SASM, especially in northwestern India. This finding surpasses the impact of factors like Himalayan uplift and global CO2 changes. We shed light on the complex dynamics shaping ancient monsoons, providing valuable insights into Earth's climatic history.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Meng Zuo, Yong Sun, Yan Zhao, Gilles Ramstein, Lin Ding, and Tianjun Zhou
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-76, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the coupled model simulations with realistic early to middle Miocene paleogeography, we reveal that the enhanced South Asian summer monsoon in Middle Miocene is mainly caused by the uplift of Iranian Plateau (IP), rather than the Himalayas. The elevated IP insulates the warm and moist airs in the south of the IP and produces a low-level cyclonic circulation, which leads to the convergence of the warm and moist air in the northwestern India and enhancing the monsoonal precipitation.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Sapiano, M. R., Huffman, G. J., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and Shin, D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly analysis (new version 2.3) and a review of 2017 global precipitation, Atmosphere, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018. a
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron
fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB2017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002591, 2006. a
Ayugi, B., Jiang, Z., Zhu, H., Ngoma, H., Babaousmail, H., Karim, R., and Dike, V.: Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme
precipitation over East Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 6474–6496, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7207, 2021. a, b
Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den
Broeke, M., Chan, W.-L., Hu, A., Beadling, R., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., and Yin, J.: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12252–12260, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070457, 2016. a
Biasutti, M.: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1613–1623, 2013. a
Biasutti, M. and Sobel, A. H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041303, 2009. a, b
Biasutti, M., Sobel, A. H., and Camargo, S. J.: The role of the Sahara low in
summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models, J. Climate, 22, 5755–5771, 2009. a
Boos, W. R. and Kuang, Z.: Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by
orographic insulation versus plateau heating, Nature, 463, 218–222, 2010. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., SDenvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Lionel, Guez, E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Khadre Traore, A., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Braakmann-Folgmann, A., Shepherd, A., Gerrish, L., Izzard, J., and Ridout, A.: Observing the disintegration of the A68A iceberg from space, Remote Sens. Environ., 270, 112855, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112855, 2022. a
Broecker, W., Bond, G., Klas, M., Clark, E., and McManus, J.: Origin of the
northern Atlantic's Heinrich events, Clim. Dynam., 6, 265–273,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00193540, 1992. a
Cavazos, T., Turrent, C., and Lettenmaier, D.: Extreme precipitation trends
associated with tropical cyclones in the core of the North American monsoon,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035832, 2008. a
Chassignet, E. P., Yeager, S. G., Fox-Kemper, B., Bozec, A., Castruccio, F., Danabasoglu, G., Horvat, C., Kim, W. M., Koldunov, N., Li, Y., Lin, P., Liu, H., Sein, D. V., Sidorenko, D., Wang, Q., and Xu, X.: Impact of horizontal resolution on global ocean–sea ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4595–4637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, 2020. a
Chemison, A., Ramstein, G., Tompkins, A. M., Defrance, D., Camus, G., Charra,
M., and Caminade, C.: Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4, 2021. a
Chemison, A., Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., and Caminade, C.: Simulation files to reproduce the paper “Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on
monsoon systems”, OSFH [data set], https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/YTER9, 2022. a, b
Cheng, W., Chiang, J. C., and Zhang, D.: Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations, J. Climate, 26, 7187–7197, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1, 2013. a, b
Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S. I., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K.,
Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Cheung Lau, N., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Ping Xie, S., Zhou, T., Abraham, L., Ambrizzi, T., AndersonOsamu Arakawa, B., Arritt, R., Baldwin, M., Barlow, M., Barriopedro, D., Biasutti, M., Biner, S., Bromwich, D., Brown, J., Cai, W., Carvalho, L. V., Chang, P., Chen, X., Choi, J., Bøssing Christensen, O., Deser, C., Emanuel, K., Endo, H., Enfield, D. B., Evan, A., Giannini, A., Gillett, N., Hariharasubramanian, A., Huang, P., Jones, J., Karumuri, A., Katzfey, J., Kjellström, E., Knight, J., Knutson, T., Kulkarni, A., Rao Kundeti, K., Lau, W. K., Lenderink, G., Lennard, C., Ruby Leung, L. Y., Lin, R., Losada, T., Mackellar, N. C., Magaña, V., Marshall, G., Mearns, L., Meehl, G., Menéndez, C., Murakami, H., Nath, M. J., Neelin, J. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Olesen, M., Polcher, J., Qian, Y., Ray, S., Davis Reich, K., Rodriguez de Fonseca, B., Ruti, P., Screen, J., Sedláček, J., Solman, S., Stendel, M., Stevenson, S., Takayabu, I., Turner, J., Ummenhofer, C., Walsh, K., Wang, B., Wang, C., Watterson, I., Widlansky, M., Wittenberg, A., Woollings, T., Wook Yeh, S., Zhang, C., Zhang, L., Zheng, X., and Zou, L.: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, in: Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, 1217–1308, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028, 2013. a, b, c, d
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D.,
Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea level change, Tech. rep., PM Cambridge University Press, http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/4605 (last access: 25 August 2022), 2013. a, b
Clement, A. C. and Peterson, L. C.: Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008. a, b
Cook, B. I. and Seager, R.: The response of the North American Monsoon to
increased greenhouse gas forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1690–1699, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50111, 2013. a
Cui, J., Piao, S., Huntingford, C., Wang, X., Lian, X., Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G., and Kooperman, G. J.: Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–11, 2020. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Defrance, D.: ETCCDI Metric with an acceleration of ice sheets melting during the 21st century, V2, Mendeley Data [data set], https://doi.org/10.17632/fbsdj87gjg.2, 2022. a
Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Famien, A. M., Sultan, B.,
Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P.: Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 6533–6538, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114, 2017. a, b, c, d
Defrance, D., Catry, T., Rajaud, A., Dessay, N., and Sultan, B.: Impacts of
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt on future Köppen climate zone
changes simulated by an atmospheric and oceanic general circulation model,
Appl. Geogr., 119, 102216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102216, 2020. a, b
Duffy, P. and Tebaldi, C.: Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the US, Climatic Change, 111, 487–495, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6, 2012. a
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Dunning, C. M., Black, E., and Allan, R. P.: Later wet seasons with more
intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change, J. Climate, 31, 9719–9738, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1, 2018. a
Endo, H. and Kitoh, A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon
rainfall changes in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1704–1711, 2014. a
Famien, A. M., Janicot, S., Ochou, A. D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B.,
and Noël, T.: A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using the CDF-t
method – a contribution to agricultural impact studies, Earth Syst. Dynam.,
9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018. a
Fasullo, J.: A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1137–1147, 2012. a
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Fichefet, T. and Maqueda, M. M.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the
treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 12609–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC00480, 1997. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout,
S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G.,
Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B.,
Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change, in:
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol. 2021, 1211–1362, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 23 August 2022), 2021. a
Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gagliardini, O., Seddik, H., Nodet, M., Durand, G., Ritz,
C., Zwinger, T., Greve, R., and Vaughan, D. G.: Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model, The
Cryosphere, 6, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012, 2012. a, b
Gusain, A., Ghosh, S., and Karmakar, S.: Added value of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Atmos. Res., 232, 104680, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104680, 2020. a
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Tormey, B., Donovan, B., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., and Lo, K.-W.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ∘C global warming could be dangerous, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016. a
Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Jourdain, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Walters, S.,
Lamarque, J.-F., and Holland, E.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de
Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and
background tropospheric chemistry evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D04314, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003957, 2004. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions–the `business as usual' story
is misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020. a, b, c
Hemming, S. R.: Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of
the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000128, 2004. a
Hourdin, F., Foujols, M.-A., Codron, F., Guemas, V., Dufresne, J.-L., Bony, S., Denvil, S., Guez, L., Lott, F., Ghattas, J., Braconnot, P., Marti, O., Meurdesoif, Y., and Bopp, L.: Impact of the LMDZ atmospheric grid configuration on the climate and sensitivity of the IPSL-CM5A coupled model, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2167–2192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1411-3, 2013. a
Hsu, P.-C., Li, T., Murakami, H., and Kitoh, A.: Future change of the global
monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1247–1260, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50145, 2013. a
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climatic Change, 109, 117–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2, 2011. a
IGCMG: Install a configuration, http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/igcmg_doc/wiki/Doc/Install, last access: 25 August 2022. a
Jiang, Z., Song, J., Li, L., Chen, W., Wang, Z., and Wang, J.: Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection, Climatic Change, 110, 385–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0090-0, 2012. a
Jones, C. and Carvalho, L. M.: Climate change in the South American monsoon
system: present climate and CMIP5 projections, J. Climate, 26, 6660–6678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1, 2013. a
Jourdain, N. C., Gupta, A. S., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Moise, A. F., and Ashok, K.: The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3073–3102, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1, 2013. a
Jullien, S., Masson, S., Oerder, V., Samson, G., Colas, F., and Renault, L.:
Impact of ocean–atmosphere current feedback on ocean mesoscale activity:
Regional variations and sensitivity to model resolution, J. Climate, 33, 2585–2602, 2020. a
Kageyama, M., Merkel, U., Otto-Bliesner, B., Prange, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Roche, D. M., Singarayer, J., Swingedouw, D., and X Zhang: Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study, Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Kitoh, A., Endo, H., Krishna Kumar, K., Cavalcanti, I. F., Goswami, P., and
Zhou, T.: Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global
context, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3053–3065, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50258, 2013. a, b
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic
global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere
system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005. a
Krinner, G., Lézine, A.-M., Braconnot, P., Sepulchre, P., Ramstein, G.,
Grenier, C., and Gouttevin, I.: A reassessment of lake and wetland feedbacks
on the North African Holocene climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050992, 2012. a, b
Kuhlbrodt, T., Rahmstorf, S., Zickfeld, K., Vikebø, F. B., Sundby, S.,
Hofmann, M., Link, P. M., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., and Jaeger, C.: An
integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation, Climatic
Change, 96, 489–537, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y, 2009. a
Lange, S.: EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004, 2016. a
Lau, K.-M., Ramanathan, V., Wu, G.-X., Li, Z., Tsay, S., Hsu, C., Sikka, R.,
Holben, B., Lu, D., Tartari, G., Chin, M., Koudelova, P., Chen, H., Ma, Y., Huang, J., Taniguchi, K., and Zhang, R.: The Joint Aerosol–Monsoon Experiment: A new challenge for monsoon climate research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 369–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-369, 2008. a
Lean, J., Rottman, G., Harder, J., and Kopp, G.: SORCE contributions to new
understanding of global change and solar variability, in: The Solar Radiation
and Climate Experiment – (SORCE), Springer, 27–53,
https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-37625-9_3, 2005. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P.,
Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E. M., Fyfe, J., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., Zhou, T., Milinski, S., Yun, K.-S., Armour, K., Bellouin, N., Bethke, I., Byrne, M. P., Cassou, C., Chen, D., Cherchi, A., Christensen, H. M., Connors, S. L., Di Luca, A., Drijfhout, S. S., Fletcher, C. G., Forster, P., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gillett, N. P., Kaufmann, D. S., Keller, D. P., Kravitz, B., Li, H., Liang, Y., MacDougall, A. H., Malinina, E., Menary, M., Merryfield, W. J., Min, S.-K., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Notz, D., Pearson, B., Priestley, M.D. K., Quaas, J., Ribes, A., Ruane, A. C., Sallee, J.-B., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Seneviratne, S. I., Slangen, A. B. A., Smith, C., Stuecker, M. F., Swaminathan, R., Thorne, P. W., Tokarska, K. B., Toohey, M., Turner, A., Volpi, D., Xiao, C., and Zappa, G.: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth: Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Chapter 4, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B., IPCC, Genf, Switzerland, 1–195, 2021. a, b
Lefevre, F., Brasseur, G., Folkins, I., Smith, A., and Simon, P.: Chemistry of the 1991–1992 stratospheric winter: Three-dimensional model simulations,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 8183–8195, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD03476, 1994. a
Lenton, T. M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rahmstorf, S., Richardson, K.,
Steffen, W., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Climate tipping points – too risky to
bet against, Nature, 575, 592–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0, 2019. a
Li, C. and Yanai, M.: The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land–sea thermal contrast, J. Climate, 9,
358–375, 1996. a
Li, X., Ting, M., Li, C., and Henderson, N.: Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 28, 4107–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1, 2015. a
Liu, W. and Hu, A.: The role of the PMOC in modulating the deglacial shift of
the ITCZ, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3019–3034, 2015. a
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Bouttier, P.-A., Bricaud, C., Bruciaferri, D., Calvert, D., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Delrosso, D., Ethé, C., Flavoni, S., Graham, T., Harle, J., Iovino, D., Lea, D., Lévy, C., Lovato, T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Paul, J., Rousset, C., Storkey, D., Storto, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: NEMO ocean engine, NEMO ocean engine, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3248739, 2017. a
Mariotti, L., Diallo, I., Coppola, E., and Giorgi, F.: Seasonal and
intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX
projections, Climatic Change, 125, 53–65, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0, 2014. a
Marzin, C., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Relative impacts of insolation
changes, meltwater fluxes and ice sheets on African and Asian monsoons during
the Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2267–2286, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1948-9, 2013a. a, b, c, d
Marzin, C., Kallel, N., Kageyama, M., Duplessy, J.-C., and Braconnot, P.:
Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North
Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments, Clim. Past, 9, 2135–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2135-2013, 2013b. a, b, c, d
Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M., and Stouffer, R. J.: The
coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 313–318, 2000. a
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vrac, M., and Loukos, H.: Probabilistic downscaling
approaches: Application to wind cumulative distribution functions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009. a
Mimura, N.: Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for
society, Proc. Japan Acad. Ser. B, 89, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.89.281, 2013. a, b
Monerie, P.-A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M., and Akinsanola, A. A.: Model
uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles
of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1385–1401,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0, 2020. a, b
Moon, S. and Ha, K.-J.: Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation
using CMIP6, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 1–7, 2020. a
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K.,
Van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010. a, b, c, d
Network, V. L. D.: Total Lightning Statistics 2021: Vaisala Annual Lightning
Report, Vaisala, https://www.vaisala.com/en/annual-lightning-report, last access: 23 August 2022. a
Ongoma, V., Chen, H., and Gao, C.: Projected changes in mean rainfall and
temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1375–1392, 2018. a
Ortega, G., Arias, P. ., Villegas, J. C., Marquet, P. A., and Nobre, P.:
Present-day and future climate over central and South America according to
CMIP5/CMIP6 models, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 6713–6735, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7221, 2021. a
Peterson, B. J., McClelland, J., Curry, R., Holmes, R. M., Walsh, J. E., and
Aagaard, K.: Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle,
Science, 313, 1061–1066, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122593, 2006. a
Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A. K. M. S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J., Bamba Sylla, M., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., and Zaaboul, R.: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 23 August 2022), 2021. a, b
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts,
J. T.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011. a, b, c, d
Schiller, A., Mikolajewicz, U., and Voss, R.: The stability of the North
Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general
circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 13, 325–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050169, 1997. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M. E., Meier, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Findell, K. L., Ghattas, J., Lawrence, D. M., Malyshev, S., Rummukainen, M., and Smith, B.: Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5212–5217, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956, 2013. a
Shongwe, M. E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van den Hurk, B., and van Aalst, M.:
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global
warming. Part II: East Africa, J. Climate, 24, 3718–3733,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1, 2011. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate
extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation
in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013. a
Song, F., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Dong, L., Zhou, W., Harrop, B., and Qian, Y.:
Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 605–612, 2021. a
Stendel, M. and Christensen, J.: Impact of global warming on permafrost
conditions in a coupled GCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10–1, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014345, 2002. a
Stocker, T. F.: The seesaw effect, Science, 282, 61–62,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5386.61, 1998. a, b
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J., Dixon, K., Spelman, M., Hurlin, W.,
Weaver, A., Eby, M., Flato, G., Hasumi, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., Robitaille, D. Y., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, S. L.: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes, J. Climate, 19, 1365–1387, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3689.1, 2006. a, b, c, d, e, f
Suhaila, J., Deni, S. M., Wan Zin, W. Z., and Jemain, A. A.: Spatial patterns
and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the
southwest and northeast monsoons: 1975–2004, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 110, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-010-0108-6, 2010. a
Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., and Gregory, J. M.: Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164, 2007. a
Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., and Schmittner, A.: Effect of the Greenland
ice-sheet melting on the response and stability of the AMOC in the next
centuries, Geophys. Monogr., 173, 383–392, https://doi.org/10.1029/173GM24, 2007. a
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Huybrechts, P., Goosse, H., Driesschaert, E., and Loutre, M.-F.: Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on
future climate warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034410, 2008. a, b
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., and Loutre, M.-F.: Impact of
transient freshwater releases in the Southern Ocean on the AMOC and climate,
Clim. Dynam., 33, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0496-1, 2009a. a, b
Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Braconnot, P., Mosquet, E., Kageyama, M., and
Alkama, R.: Impact of freshwater release in the North Atlantic under
different climate conditions in an OAGCM, J. Climate, 22, 6377–6403, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3028.1, 2009b. a
Swingedouw, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Behrens, E., Menary, M., Olsen, S. M., Gao,
Y., Mikolajewicz, U., Mignot, J., and Biastoch, A.: Decadal fingerprints of
freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 41, 695–720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1479-9, 2013. a, b
Taylor, K., Stouffer, R., and Meehl, G.: An overview of CMIP5 and the
experimental design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a, b
Thompson, A. J., Skinner, C. B., Poulsen, C. J., and Zhu, J.: Modulation of
mid-Holocene African rainfall by dust aerosol direct and indirect effects,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081225, 2019. a
Tian, B. and Dong, X.: The double-ITCZ bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models
based on annual mean precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087232, 2020. a
Timbal, B. and Arblaster, J. M.: Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025361, 2006. a
Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H.: Climate change and the South Asian summer
monsoon, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 587–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495, 2012. a, b
Valcke, S.: The OASIS3 coupler: A European climate modelling community
software, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013, 2013. a
Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A.: Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in
the twenty-first century, Climatic Change, 91, 43–63,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9146-y, 2008. a, b
Vrac, M. and Friederichs, P.: Multivariate – intervariable, spatial, and
temporal – bias correction, J. Climate, 28, 218–237,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00059.1, 2015. a, b
Wainwright, C. M., Black, E., and Allan, R. P.: Future changes in wet and dry
season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2339–2357, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1, 2021. a
Wang, B. and Ding, Q.: Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025347, 2006. a, b
Wang, B. and Ding, Q.: Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics, Dynam. Atmos. Ocean., 44, 165–183, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002, 2008. a
Wang, B., Kim, H.-J., Kikuchi, K., and Kitoh, A.: Diagnostic metrics for
evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles, Clim. Dynam., 37, 941–955,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0877-0, 2011.
a
Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C., Chang, C.-P., Cook, K., Fu,
R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K.-J., Hendon, H., Kitoh, A., Krishnan, R., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Liu, J., Moise, A., Pascale, S., Roxy, M. K., Seth, A., Sui, C.-H., Turner, A., Yang, S., Yun, K.-S., Zhang, L., and Zhou, T.: Monsoons climate change assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1–E19, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1, 2021. a, b
Weaver, A. J., Sedláček, J., Eby, M., Alexander, K., Crespin, E.,
Fichefet, T., Philippon-Berthier, G., Joos, F., Kawamiya, M., Matsumoto, K.,
Steinacher, M., Tachiiri, K., Tokos, K., Yoshimori, M., and Zickfeld, K.: Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053763, 2012. a
Xin, X., Wu, T., Zhang, J., Yao, J., and Fang, Y.: Comparison of CMIP6 and
CMIP5 simulations of precipitation in China and the East Asian summer
monsoon, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 6423–6440, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6590, 2020. a, b
Yang, W., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Lyon, B.: The rainfall annual cycle bias over East Africa in CMIP5 coupled climate models, J. Climate, 28,
9789–9802, 2015. a
Zhisheng, A., Guoxiong, W., Jianping, L., Youbin, S., Yimin, L., Weijian, Z.,
Yanjun, C., Anmin, D., Li, L., Jiangyu, M., Hai, C., Zhengguo, S., Liangcheng, T., Hong, Y., Hong, A., Hong, C., and Juan, F.: Global monsoon dynamics and climate change, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 43, 29–77, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054623, 2015. a
Zhou, T. and Zou, L.: Understanding the predictability of East Asian summer
monsoon from the reproduction of land–sea thermal contrast change in
AMIP-type simulation, J. Climate, 23, 6009–6026, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3546.1, 2010. a
Short summary
We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st century. The impact of a partial Antarctica melting is moderate. Conversely, Greenland melting slows down the oceanic Atlantic circulation and changes winds, temperature and pressure patterns, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over Africa and America. The seasonality, duration and intensity of rainfall events are affected, with potential severe impacts on vulnerable populations.
We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint