Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Aug 2022
Research article |
| 30 Aug 2022
| 30 Aug 2022
Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems
Alizée Chemison
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Dimitri Defrance
The Climate Data factory, Paris, France
Gilles Ramstein
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Cyril Caminade
Earth System Physics Department, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy
Related authors
Florentin Lemonnier, Alizée Chemison, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, and Christophe Genthon
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first evaluation from snowfall observations in Antarctica of the general circulation model LMDz (global), the atmospheric component of the coupled IPSL Climate Model that is part of CMIP6 (IPCC). We also present an evaluation of the new version of the MAR model (regional), considered as a reference in terms of polar climate modelling. Both models show satisfying results for the modelling of precipitation in Antarctica.
Mohamed Ayache, Jean-Claude Dutay, Anne Mouchet, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Camille Risi, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6627–6655, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water isotopes (δ18O, δD) are one of the most widely used proxies in ocean climate research. Previous studies using water isotope observations and modelling have highlighted the importance of understanding spatial and temporal isotopic variability for a quantitative interpretation of these tracers. Here we present the first results of a high-resolution regional dynamical model (at 1/12° horizontal resolution) developed for the Mediterranean Sea, one of the hotspots of ongoing climate change.
Meng Zuo, Yong Sun, Yan Zhao, Gilles Ramstein, Lin Ding, and Tianjun Zhou
Clim. Past, 20, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores the intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) during the Middle Miocene (17–12 Ma). Using an advanced model, we reveal that the uplift of the Iranian Plateau significantly influenced the SASM, especially in northwestern India. This finding surpasses the impact of factors like Himalayan uplift and global CO2 changes. We shed light on the complex dynamics shaping ancient monsoons, providing valuable insights into Earth's climatic history.
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
Meng Zuo, Yong Sun, Yan Zhao, Gilles Ramstein, Lin Ding, and Tianjun Zhou
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-76, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the coupled model simulations with realistic early to middle Miocene paleogeography, we reveal that the enhanced South Asian summer monsoon in Middle Miocene is mainly caused by the uplift of Iranian Plateau (IP), rather than the Himalayas. The elevated IP insulates the warm and moist airs in the south of the IP and produces a low-level cyclonic circulation, which leads to the convergence of the warm and moist air in the northwestern India and enhancing the monsoonal precipitation.
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
Florentin Lemonnier, Alizée Chemison, Hubert Gallée, Gerhard Krinner, Jean-Baptiste Madeleine, Chantal Claud, and Christophe Genthon
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-167, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the first evaluation from snowfall observations in Antarctica of the general circulation model LMDz (global), the atmospheric component of the coupled IPSL Climate Model that is part of CMIP6 (IPCC). We also present an evaluation of the new version of the MAR model (regional), considered as a reference in terms of polar climate modelling. Both models show satisfying results for the modelling of precipitation in Antarctica.
Tristan Vadsaria, Laurent Li, Gilles Ramstein, and Jean-Claude Dutay
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2337–2354, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2337-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2337-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article aims to reproduce the Early Holocene climate over the Mediterranean basin, characterized with a large reorganization of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. In order to reduce the demand of strong computation resources, a comprehensive global-to-regional model architecture is developed and validated against paleo data. Beyond the case study shown here, this platform may be applied to a large number of paleoclimate contexts.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Ran Zhang, Florence Colleoni, Gilles Ramstein, Gaowen Dai, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Stefan Liess, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Naiqing Wu, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Contoux, Chuncheng Guo, Ning Tan, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-38, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Whether an ice sheet once grew over Northeast Siberia-Beringia has been debated for decades. By comparing climate modelling with paleoclimate and glacial records from around the North Pacific, this study shows that the Laurentide-Eurasia-only ice sheet configuration fails in explaining these records, while a scenario involving the ice sheet over Northeast Siberia-Beringia succeeds. It highlights the complexity in glacial climates and urges new investigations across Northeast Siberia-Beringia.
Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Yong Sun, Christophe Dumas, Pierre Sepulchre, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 16, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the warm climate during the late Pliocene (~3.205 Ma), modeling experiments with the new boundary conditions are launched and analyzed based on the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that the warming in mid- to high latitudes enhanced due to the modifications of the land–sea mask and land–ice configuration. The pCO2 uncertainties within the records can produce asymmetrical warming patterns.
Yating Lin, Gilles Ramstein, Haibin Wu, Raj Rani, Pascale Braconnot, Masa Kageyama, Qin Li, Yunli Luo, Ran Zhang, and Zhengtang Guo
Clim. Past, 15, 1223–1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1223-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Holocene has been an excellent target for comparing models and data. This work shows that, over China, all the ocean–atmosphere general circulation models involved in PMIP3 show a very large discrepancy with pollen data reconstruction when comparing annual and seasonal temperature. It demonstrates that to reconcile models and data and to capture the signature of seasonal thermal response, it is necessary to integrate non-linear processes, particularly those related to vegetation changes.
Zhongshi Zhang, Qing Yan, Elizabeth J. Farmer, Camille Li, Gilles Ramstein, Terence Hughes, Martin Jakobsson, Matt O'Regan, Ran Zhang, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Christophe Dumas, and Chuncheng Guo
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-79, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Our study challenges the widely accepted idea that the Laurentide-Eurasian ice sheets gradually extended across North America and Northwest Eurasia, and suggests the growth of the NH ice sheets is much more complicated. We find climate feedbacks regulate the distribution of the NH ice sheets, producing swings between two distinct ice sheet configurations: the Laurentide-Eurasian and a circum-Arctic configuration, where large ice sheets existed over Northeast Siberia and the Canadian Rockies.
Guillaume Latombe, Ariane Burke, Mathieu Vrac, Guillaume Levavasseur, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, and Gilles Ramstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2563–2579, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
It is still unclear how climate conditions, and especially climate variability, influenced the spatial distribution of past human populations. Global climate models (GCMs) cannot simulate climate at sufficiently fine scale for this purpose. We propose a statistical method to obtain fine-scale climate projections for 15 000 years ago from coarse-scale GCM outputs. Our method agrees with local reconstructions from fossil and pollen data, and generates sensible climate variability maps over Europe.
Baohuang Su, Dabang Jiang, Ran Zhang, Pierre Sepulchre, and Gilles Ramstein
Clim. Past, 14, 751–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-751-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-751-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The present numerical experiments undertaken by a coupled atmosphere–ocean model indicate that the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau alone could have been a potential driver for the reorganization of Pacific and Atlantic meridional overturning circulations between the late Eocene and early Oligocene. In other words, the Tibetan Plateau could play an important role in maintaining the current large-scale overturning circulation in the Atlantic and Pacific.
Adjoua Moise Famien, Serge Janicot, Abe Delfin Ochou, Mathieu Vrac, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, and Thomas Noël
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses the cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) method to provide bias-corrected data over Africa using WFDEI as a reference dataset. It is shown that CDF-t is very effective in removing the biases and reducing the high inter-GCM scattering. Differences with other bias-corrected GCM data are mainly due to the differences among the reference datasets, particularly for surface downwelling shortwave radiation, which has a significant impact in terms of simulated maize yields.
Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
Davide Faranda and Dimitri Defrance
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 517–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-517-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a general technique to detect a climate change signal in the coherent and turbulent components of the atmospheric circulation. Our analysis suggests that the coherent components (atmospheric waves, long-term oscillations) will experience the greatest changes in future climate, proportionally to the greenhouse gas emission scenario considered.
A. M. Dolan, S. J. Hunter, D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, S. J. Koenig, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 403–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-403-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Climate and ice sheet models are often used to predict the nature of ice sheets in Earth history. It is important to understand whether such predictions are consistent among different models, especially in warm periods of relevance to the future. We use input from 15 different climate models to run one ice sheet model and compare the predictions over Greenland. We find that there are large differences between the predicted ice sheets for the warm Pliocene (c. 3 million years ago).
D. J. Hill, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Lunt, S. J. Hunter, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, C. Stepanek, L. Sohl, N. A. Rosenbloom, W.-L. Chan, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, G. Lohmann, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 10, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-79-2014, 2014
N. Hamon, P. Sepulchre, V. Lefebvre, and G. Ramstein
Clim. Past, 9, 2687–2702, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2687-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2687-2013, 2013
R. Zhang, Q. Yan, Z. S. Zhang, D. Jiang, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, C. Contoux, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 2085–2099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013, 2013
Y. Sun, G. Ramstein, C. Contoux, and T. Zhou
Clim. Past, 9, 1613–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1613-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1613-2013, 2013
Z.-S. Zhang, K. H. Nisancioglu, M. A. Chandler, A. M. Haywood, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, G. Ramstein, C. Stepanek, A. Abe-Ouchi, W.-L. Chan, F. J. Bragg, C. Contoux, A. M. Dolan, D. J. Hill, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, N. A. Rosenbloom, L. E. Sohl, and H. Ueda
Clim. Past, 9, 1495–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1495-2013, 2013
C. Contoux, A. Jost, G. Ramstein, P. Sepulchre, G. Krinner, and M. Schuster
Clim. Past, 9, 1417–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1417-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1417-2013, 2013
A. Sima, M. Kageyama, D.-D. Rousseau, G. Ramstein, Y. Balkanski, P. Antoine, and C. Hatté
Clim. Past, 9, 1385–1402, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1385-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1385-2013, 2013
A. M. Haywood, D. J. Hill, A. M. Dolan, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, W.-L. Chan, M. A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H. J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D. J. Lunt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. J. Pickering, G. Ramstein, N. A. Rosenbloom, U. Salzmann, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, Q. Yan, and Z. Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 191–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-191-2013, 2013
B. Ringeval, P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, A. J. Dolman, and M. Kageyama
Clim. Past, 9, 149–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-149-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate scenarios
Countries most exposed to individual and concurrent extremes and near-permanent extreme conditions at different global warming levels
Direct and indirect application of univariate and multivariate bias corrections on heat-stress indices based on multiple regional-climate-model simulations
Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
The implications of maintaining Earth's hemispheric albedo symmetry for shortwave radiative feedbacks
Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change
Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021
Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations
STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
Combining machine learning and SMILEs to classify, better understand, and project changes in ENSO events
Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention
Present and future synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold and snowy spells over Italy
Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios
Atmospheric rivers in CMIP5 climate ensembles downscaled with a high-resolution regional climate model
Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary
The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections
Climate change signal in the ocean circulation of the Tyrrhenian Sea
Oceanographic regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea until 2100
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability
Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change
Weather extremes over Europe under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming from HAPPI regional climate ensemble simulations
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Comparing interannual variability in three regional single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) over Europe
A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Storylines of the 2018 Northern Hemisphere heatwave at pre-industrial and higher global warming levels
ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Differing precipitation response between solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal due to fast and slow components
Changes in the future summer Mediterranean climate: contribution of teleconnections and local factors
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Heat stress risk in European dairy cattle husbandry under different climate change scenarios – uncertainties and potential impacts
Changes in statistical distributions of sub-daily surface temperatures and wind speed
The economically optimal warming limit of the planet
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
Tracking the moisture transport from the Pacific towards Central and northern South America since the late 19th century
Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement
The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections
The effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet
ESD Ideas: a simple proposal to improve the contribution of IPCC WGI to the assessment and communication of climate change risks
The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance
Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe
Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 °C global warming target
Fulden Batibeniz, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 485–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study single and concurrent heatwaves, droughts, precipitation, and wind extremes. Globally, these extremes become more frequent and affect larger land areas under future warming, with several countries experiencing extreme events every single month. Concurrent heatwaves–droughts (precipitation–wind) are projected to increase the most in mid–high-latitude countries (tropics). Every mitigation action to avoid further warming will reduce the number of people exposed to extreme weather events.
Liying Qiu, Eun-Soon Im, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Dong-Hyun Cha, Seok-Woo Shin, Joong-Bae Ahn, Eun-Chul Chang, and Young-Hwa Byun
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 507–517, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates four bias correction methods (three univariate and one multivariate) for correcting multivariate heat-stress indices. We show that the multivariate method can benefit the indirect correction that first adjusts individual components before index calculation, and its advantage is more evident for indices relying equally on multiple drivers. Meanwhile, the direct correction of heat-stress indices by the univariate quantile delta mapping approach also has comparable performance.
H. E. Markus Meier, Marcus Reckermann, Joakim Langner, Ben Smith, and Ira Didenkulova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 519–531, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports summarise the current state of knowledge on Earth system science in the Baltic Sea region. The 10 review articles focus on the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Some highlights of the results are presented here.
Aiden R. Jönsson and Frida A.-M. Bender
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 345–365, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-345-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth has nearly the same mean albedo in both hemispheres, a feature not well replicated by climate models. Global warming causes changes in surface and cloud properties that affect albedo and that feed back into the warming. We show that models predict more darkening due to ice loss in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere in response to increasing CO2 concentrations. This is, to varying degrees, counteracted by changes in cloud cover, with implications for cloud feedback on climate.
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Isobel M. Parry, Paul D. L. Ritchie, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1667–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Despite little evidence of regional Amazon rainforest dieback, many localised abrupt dieback events are observed in the latest state-of-the-art global climate models under anthropogenic climate change. The detected dieback events would still cause severe consequences for local communities and ecosystems. This study suggests that 7 ± 5 % of the northern South America region would experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 °C.
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
Claudia Tebaldi, Abigail Snyder, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1557–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Impact modelers need many future scenarios to characterize the consequences of climate change. The climate modeling community cannot fully meet this need because of the computational cost of climate models. Emulators have fallen short of providing the entire range of inputs that modern impact models require. Our proposal, STITCHES, meets these demands in a comprehensive way and may thus support a fully integrated impact research effort and save resources for the climate modeling enterprise.
Aurélien Ribes, Julien Boé, Saïd Qasmi, Brigitte Dubuisson, Hervé Douville, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
Nicola Maher, Thibault P. Tabarin, and Sebastian Milinski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1289–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1289-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño events occur as two broad types: eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP). EP and CP events differ in strength, evolution, and in their impacts. In this study we create a new machine learning classifier to identify the two types of El Niño events using observed sea surface temperature data. We apply our new classifier to climate models and show that CP events are unlikely to change in frequency or strength under a warming climate, with model disagreement for EP events.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Cyril Dutheil, H. E. Markus Meier, and Dmitry V. Sein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 613–631, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-613-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric rivers transport high amounts of water from subtropical regions to Europe. They are an important driver of heavy precipitation and flooding. Their response to a warmer future climate in Europe has so far been assessed only by global climate models. In this study, we apply for the first time a high-resolution regional climate model that allow to better resolve and understand the fate of atmospheric rivers over Europe.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Josep Cos, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Martin Jury, Raül Marcos, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, and Margarida Samsó
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 321–340, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-321-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean has been identified as being more affected by climate change than other regions. We find that amplified warming during summer and annual precipitation declines are expected for the 21st century and that the magnitude of the changes will mainly depend on greenhouse gas emissions. By applying a method giving more importance to models with greater performance and independence, we find that the differences between the last two community modelling efforts are reduced in the region.
Alba de la Vara, Iván M. Parras-Berrocal, Alfredo Izquierdo, Dmitry V. Sein, and William Cabos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 303–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-303-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We study with the regionally coupled climate model ROM the impact of climate change on the Tyrrhenian Sea circulation, as well as the possible mechanisms and consequences in the NW Mediterranean Sea. Our results show a shift towards the summer circulation pattern by the end of the century. Also, water flowing via the Corsica Channel is more stratified and smaller in volume. Both factors may contribute to the interruption of deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions in the future.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun-Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom, Axel Timmermann, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Clara Deser, Jim Edwards, Ji-Eun Kim, Isla R. Simpson, Karl Stein, Malte F. Stuecker, Ryohei Yamaguchi, Tamás Bódai, Eui-Seok Chung, Lei Huang, Who M. Kim, Jean-François Lamarque, Danica L. Lombardozzi, William R. Wieder, and Stephen G. Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1393–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1393-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of simulations with 100 members has been conducted with the state-of-the-art CESM2 Earth system model, using historical and SSP3-7.0 forcing. Our main finding is that there are significant changes in the variance of the Earth system in response to anthropogenic forcing, with these changes spanning a broad range of variables important to impacts for human populations and ecosystems.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Christian Folberth, Juraj Balkovic, and Bart van den Hurk
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1503–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1503-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, and Daniela Jacob
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 457–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-457-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents new estimates of future extreme weather in Europe, including extreme heat, extreme rainfall and meteorological drought. These new estimates were achieved by repeating model calculations many times, thereby reducing uncertainties of these rare events at low levels of global warming at 1.5 and 2 °C above
pre-industrial temperature levels. These results are important, as they help to assess which weather extremes could increase at moderate warming levels and where.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Joost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-387-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Higher temperatures influence both evaporation and snow processes. These two processes have a large effect on discharge but have distinct roles during different seasons. In this study, we study how higher temperatures affect the discharge via changed evaporation and snow dynamics. Higher temperatures lead to enhanced evaporation but increased melt from glaciers, overall lowering the discharge. During the snowmelt season, discharge was reduced further due to the earlier depletion of snow.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We used a model of the Congo Basin to investigate the transfer of carbon (C) from land (vegetation and soils) to inland waters. We estimate that leaching of C to inland waters, emissions of CO2 from the water surface, and the export of C to the coast have all increased over the last century, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change. We predict that these trends may continue through the 21st century and call for long-term monitoring of these fluxes.
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by the possible influence of rising temperatures, this study synthesises results from observations and climate models to explore trends (1900–2018) in eastern African (EA) drought measures. However, no discernible trends are found in annual soil moisture or precipitation. Positive trends in potential evaporation indicate that for irrigated regions more water is now required to counteract increased evaporation. Precipitation deficit is, however, the most useful indicator of EA drought.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Camilla W. Stjern, Zbigniew Klimont, Terje K. Berntsen, and Bjørn H. Samset
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 977–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-977-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals requires both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Kathrin Wehrli, Mathias Hauser, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 855–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-855-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The 2018 summer was unusually hot for large areas in the Northern Hemisphere, and heatwaves on three continents led to major impacts on agriculture and society. This study investigates storylines for the extreme 2018 summer, given the observed atmospheric circulation but different levels of background global warming. The results reveal a strong contribution by the present-day level of global warming and show a dramatic outlook for similar events in a warmer climate.
Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-751-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Anton Laakso, Peter K. Snyder, Stefan Liess, Antti-Ilari Partanen, and Dylan B. Millet
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 415–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-415-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering techniques have been proposed to prevent climate warming in the event of insufficient greenhouse gas emission reductions. Simultaneously, these techniques have an impact on precipitation, which depends on the techniques used, geoengineering magnitude, and background circumstances. We separated the independent and dependent components of precipitation responses to temperature, which were then used to explain the precipitation changes in the studied climate model simulations.
Monika J. Barcikowska, Sarah B. Kapnick, Lakshmi Krishnamurty, Simone Russo, Annalisa Cherchi, and Chris K. Folland
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 161–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-161-2020, 2020
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Sabrina Hempel, Christoph Menz, Severino Pinto, Elena Galán, David Janke, Fernando Estellés, Theresa Müschner-Siemens, Xiaoshuai Wang, Julia Heinicke, Guoqiang Zhang, Barbara Amon, Agustín del Prado, and Thomas Amon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 859–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-859-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decreasing humidity and increasing wind speed regionally alleviate the heat load on farm animals, but future temperature rise considerably increases the heat stress risk. Livestock housed in open barns (or on pastures), such as dairy cattle, is particularly vulnerable. Without adaptation, heat waves will considerably reduce the gross margin of a livestock producer. Negative effects on productivity, health and animal welfare as well as increasing methane and ammonia emissions are expected.
Robert J. H. Dunn, Kate M. Willett, and David E. Parker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 765–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-765-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using a sub-daily dataset of in situ observations, we have performed a study to see how the distributions of temperatures and wind speeds have changed over the last 45 years. Changes in the location or shape of these distributions show how extreme temperatures or wind speeds have changed. Our results show that cool extremes are warming more rapidly than warm ones in high latitudes but that in other parts of the world the opposite is true.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Lise S. Graff, Trond Iversen, Ingo Bethke, Jens B. Debernard, Øyvind Seland, Mats Bentsen, Alf Kirkevåg, Camille Li, and Dirk J. L. Olivié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 569–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Differences between a 1.5 and a 2.0 °C warmer global climate than 1850 conditions are discussed based on a suite of global atmosphere-only, fully coupled, and slab-ocean runs with the Norwegian Earth System Model. Responses, such as the Arctic amplification of global warming, are stronger with the fully coupled and slab-ocean configurations. While ice-free Arctic summers are rare under 1.5 °C warming in the slab-ocean runs, they are estimated to occur 18 % of the time under 2.0 °C warming.
David Gallego, Ricardo García-Herrera, Francisco de Paula Gómez-Delgado, Paulina Ordoñez-Perez, and Pedro Ribera
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-319-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
By analysing old wind direction observations taken aboard sailing ships, it has been possible to build an index quantifying the moisture transport from the equatorial Pacific into large areas of Central America and northern South America starting in the late 19th century. This transport is deeply related to a low-level jet known as the Choco jet. Our results suggest that the seasonal distribution of the precipitation associated with this transport could have changed over the time.
Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019, 2019
Filippo Giorgi, Francesca Raffaele, and Erika Coppola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 73–89, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-73-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The paper revisits the critical issue of precipitation characteristics in response to global warming through a new analysis of global and regional climate projections and a summary of previous work. Robust responses are identified and the underlying processes investigated. Examples of applications are given, such as the evaluation of risks associated with extremes. The paper, solicited by the EGU executive office, is based on the 2018 EGU Alexander von Humboldt medal lecture by Filippo Giorgi.
Martin Rückamp, Ulrike Falk, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, and Angelika Humbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Rowan T. Sutton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1155–1158, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is to provide policy-relevant assessments of the scientific evidence about climate change. Policymaking necessarily involves risk assessments, so it is important that IPCC reports are designed accordingly. This paper proposes a specific idea, illustrated with examples, to improve the contribution of IPCC Working Group I to informing climate risk assessments.
Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1085–1095, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
Jie Chen, Yujie Liu, Tao Pan, Yanhua Liu, Fubao Sun, and Quansheng Ge
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1097–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Results show that an additional 6.97 million people will be exposed to droughts in China under a 1.5 ºC target relative to reference period, mostly in the east of China. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure. Moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure among 3 grades of drought. Our simulations suggest that drought impact on people will continue to be a large threat to China under the 1.5 ºC target. It will be helpful in guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Sapiano, M. R., Huffman, G. J., Wang, J.-J., Gu, G., Bolvin, D., Chiu, L., Schneider, U., Becker, A., Nelkin, E., Xie, P., Ferraro, R., and Shin, D.-B.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly analysis (new version 2.3) and a review of 2017 global precipitation, Atmosphere, 9, 138, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040138, 2018. a
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron
fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, GB2017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002591, 2006. a
Ayugi, B., Jiang, Z., Zhu, H., Ngoma, H., Babaousmail, H., Karim, R., and Dike, V.: Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme
precipitation over East Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 6474–6496, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7207, 2021. a, b
Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den
Broeke, M., Chan, W.-L., Hu, A., Beadling, R., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., and Yin, J.: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12252–12260, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070457, 2016. a
Biasutti, M.: Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1613–1623, 2013. a
Biasutti, M. and Sobel, A. H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041303, 2009. a, b
Biasutti, M., Sobel, A. H., and Camargo, S. J.: The role of the Sahara low in
summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models, J. Climate, 22, 5755–5771, 2009. a
Boos, W. R. and Kuang, Z.: Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by
orographic insulation versus plateau heating, Nature, 463, 218–222, 2010. a
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Caubel, A., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., D'Andrea, F., Davini, P., de Lavergne, C., SDenvil, S., Deshayes, J., Devilliers, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Dupont, E., Éthé, C., Fairhead, L., Falletti, L., Flavoni, S., Foujols, M.-A., Gardoll, S., Gastineau, G., Ghattas, J., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guenet, B., Lionel, Guez, E., Guilyardi, E., Guimberteau, M., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Khodri, M., Krinner, G., Lebas, N., Levavasseur, G., Lévy, C., Li, L., Lott, F., Lurton, T., Luyssaert, S., Madec, G., Madeleine, J.-B., Maignan, F., Marchand, M., Marti, O., Mellul, L., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Ottlé, C., Peylin, P., Planton, Y., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Rochetin, N., Rousset, C., Sepulchre, P., Sima, A., Swingedouw, D., Thiéblemont, R., Khadre Traore, A., Vancoppenolle, M., Vial, J., Vialard, J., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Presentation and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 12, e2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020. a
Braakmann-Folgmann, A., Shepherd, A., Gerrish, L., Izzard, J., and Ridout, A.: Observing the disintegration of the A68A iceberg from space, Remote Sens. Environ., 270, 112855, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112855, 2022. a
Broecker, W., Bond, G., Klas, M., Clark, E., and McManus, J.: Origin of the
northern Atlantic's Heinrich events, Clim. Dynam., 6, 265–273,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00193540, 1992. a
Cavazos, T., Turrent, C., and Lettenmaier, D.: Extreme precipitation trends
associated with tropical cyclones in the core of the North American monsoon,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L21703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035832, 2008. a
Chassignet, E. P., Yeager, S. G., Fox-Kemper, B., Bozec, A., Castruccio, F., Danabasoglu, G., Horvat, C., Kim, W. M., Koldunov, N., Li, Y., Lin, P., Liu, H., Sein, D. V., Sidorenko, D., Wang, Q., and Xu, X.: Impact of horizontal resolution on global ocean–sea ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2), Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4595–4637, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4595-2020, 2020. a
Chemison, A., Ramstein, G., Tompkins, A. M., Defrance, D., Camus, G., Charra,
M., and Caminade, C.: Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa, Nat. Commun., 12, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4, 2021. a
Chemison, A., Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., and Caminade, C.: Simulation files to reproduce the paper “Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on
monsoon systems”, OSFH [data set], https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/YTER9, 2022. a, b
Cheng, W., Chiang, J. C., and Zhang, D.: Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations, J. Climate, 26, 7187–7197, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00496.1, 2013. a, b
Christensen, J. H., Kanikicharla, K. K., Aldrian, E., An, S. I., Cavalcanti, I. F. A., de Castro, M., Dong, W., Goswami, P., Hall, A., Kanyanga, J. K.,
Kitoh, A., Kossin, J., Cheung Lau, N., Renwick, J., Stephenson, D. B., Ping Xie, S., Zhou, T., Abraham, L., Ambrizzi, T., AndersonOsamu Arakawa, B., Arritt, R., Baldwin, M., Barlow, M., Barriopedro, D., Biasutti, M., Biner, S., Bromwich, D., Brown, J., Cai, W., Carvalho, L. V., Chang, P., Chen, X., Choi, J., Bøssing Christensen, O., Deser, C., Emanuel, K., Endo, H., Enfield, D. B., Evan, A., Giannini, A., Gillett, N., Hariharasubramanian, A., Huang, P., Jones, J., Karumuri, A., Katzfey, J., Kjellström, E., Knight, J., Knutson, T., Kulkarni, A., Rao Kundeti, K., Lau, W. K., Lenderink, G., Lennard, C., Ruby Leung, L. Y., Lin, R., Losada, T., Mackellar, N. C., Magaña, V., Marshall, G., Mearns, L., Meehl, G., Menéndez, C., Murakami, H., Nath, M. J., Neelin, J. D., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Olesen, M., Polcher, J., Qian, Y., Ray, S., Davis Reich, K., Rodriguez de Fonseca, B., Ruti, P., Screen, J., Sedláček, J., Solman, S., Stendel, M., Stevenson, S., Takayabu, I., Turner, J., Ummenhofer, C., Walsh, K., Wang, B., Wang, C., Watterson, I., Widlansky, M., Wittenberg, A., Woollings, T., Wook Yeh, S., Zhang, C., Zhang, L., Zheng, X., and Zou, L.: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, in: Climate change 2013 the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, 1217–1308, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.028, 2013. a, b, c, d
Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S.,
Levermann, A., Merrifield, M. A., Milne, G. A., Nerem, R. S., Nunn, P. D.,
Payne, A. J., Pfeffer, W. T., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A. S.: Sea level change, Tech. rep., PM Cambridge University Press, http://drs.nio.org/drs/handle/2264/4605 (last access: 25 August 2022), 2013. a, b
Clement, A. C. and Peterson, L. C.: Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, Rev. Geophys., 46, RG4002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008. a, b
Cook, B. I. and Seager, R.: The response of the North American Monsoon to
increased greenhouse gas forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1690–1699, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50111, 2013. a
Cui, J., Piao, S., Huntingford, C., Wang, X., Lian, X., Chevuturi, A., Turner, A. G., and Kooperman, G. J.: Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–11, 2020. a
DeConto, R. M. and Pollard, D.: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future
sea-level rise, Nature, 531, 591–597, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145, 2016. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Defrance, D.: ETCCDI Metric with an acceleration of ice sheets melting during the 21st century, V2, Mendeley Data [data set], https://doi.org/10.17632/fbsdj87gjg.2, 2022. a
Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., Charbit, S., Vrac, M., Famien, A. M., Sultan, B.,
Swingedouw, D., Dumas, C., Gemenne, F., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vanderlinden, J.-P.: Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 6533–6538, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114, 2017. a, b, c, d
Defrance, D., Catry, T., Rajaud, A., Dessay, N., and Sultan, B.: Impacts of
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt on future Köppen climate zone
changes simulated by an atmospheric and oceanic general circulation model,
Appl. Geogr., 119, 102216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102216, 2020. a, b
Duffy, P. and Tebaldi, C.: Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the US, Climatic Change, 111, 487–495, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0396-6, 2012. a
Dufresne, J.-L., Foujols, M.-A., Denvil, S., Caubel, A., Marti, O., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y., Bekki, S., Bellenger, H., Benshila, R., Bony, S., Bopp, L., Braconnot, P., Brockmann, P., Cadule, P., Cheruy, F., Codron, F., Cozic, A., Cugnet, D., de Noblet, N., Duvel, J.-P., Ethé, C., Fairhead, L., Fichefet, T., Flavoni, S., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Guez, L., Guilyardi, E., Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Idelkadi, A., Ghattas, J., Joussaume, S., Kageyama, M., Krinner, G., Labetoulle, S., Lahellec, A., Lefebvre, M.-P., Lefevre, F., Levy, C., Li, Z. X., Lloyd, J., Lott, F., Madec, G., Mancip, M., Marchand, M., Masson, S., Meurdesoif, Y., Mignot, J., Musat, I., Parouty, S., Polcher, J., Rio, C., Schulz, M., Swingedouw, D., Szopa, S., Talandier, C., Terray, P., Viovy, N., and Vuichard, N.: Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2123–2165, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1, 2013. a, b, c, d
Dunning, C. M., Black, E., and Allan, R. P.: Later wet seasons with more
intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change, J. Climate, 31, 9719–9738, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1, 2018. a
Endo, H. and Kitoh, A.: Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon
rainfall changes in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1704–1711, 2014. a
Famien, A. M., Janicot, S., Ochou, A. D., Vrac, M., Defrance, D., Sultan, B.,
and Noël, T.: A bias-corrected CMIP5 dataset for Africa using the CDF-t
method – a contribution to agricultural impact studies, Earth Syst. Dynam.,
9, 313–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-313-2018, 2018. a
Fasullo, J.: A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1137–1147, 2012. a
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e
Fichefet, T. and Maqueda, M. M.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the
treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 102, 12609–12646, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC00480, 1997. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout,
S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G.,
Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B.,
Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change, in:
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol. 2021, 1211–1362, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 23 August 2022), 2021. a
Gillet-Chaulet, F., Gagliardini, O., Seddik, H., Nodet, M., Durand, G., Ritz,
C., Zwinger, T., Greve, R., and Vaughan, D. G.: Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise from a new-generation ice-sheet model, The
Cryosphere, 6, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1561-2012, 2012. a, b
Gusain, A., Ghosh, S., and Karmakar, S.: Added value of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Atmos. Res., 232, 104680, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104680, 2020. a
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., Russell, G., Tselioudis, G., Cao, J., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Tormey, B., Donovan, B., Kandiano, E., von Schuckmann, K., Kharecha, P., Legrande, A. N., Bauer, M., and Lo, K.-W.: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ∘C global warming could be dangerous, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016. a
Hauglustaine, D., Hourdin, F., Jourdain, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Walters, S.,
Lamarque, J.-F., and Holland, E.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de
Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and
background tropospheric chemistry evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D04314, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003957, 2004. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions–the `business as usual' story
is misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020. a, b, c
Hemming, S. R.: Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of
the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint, Rev. Geophys., 42, RG1005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003RG000128, 2004. a
Hourdin, F., Foujols, M.-A., Codron, F., Guemas, V., Dufresne, J.-L., Bony, S., Denvil, S., Guez, L., Lott, F., Ghattas, J., Braconnot, P., Marti, O., Meurdesoif, Y., and Bopp, L.: Impact of the LMDZ atmospheric grid configuration on the climate and sensitivity of the IPSL-CM5A coupled model, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2167–2192, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1411-3, 2013. a
Hsu, P.-C., Li, T., Murakami, H., and Kitoh, A.: Future change of the global
monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1247–1260, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50145, 2013. a
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands, Climatic Change, 109, 117–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2, 2011. a
IGCMG: Install a configuration, http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/igcmg_doc/wiki/Doc/Install, last access: 25 August 2022. a
Jiang, Z., Song, J., Li, L., Chen, W., Wang, Z., and Wang, J.: Extreme climate events in China: IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection, Climatic Change, 110, 385–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0090-0, 2012. a
Jones, C. and Carvalho, L. M.: Climate change in the South American monsoon
system: present climate and CMIP5 projections, J. Climate, 26, 6660–6678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00412.1, 2013. a
Jourdain, N. C., Gupta, A. S., Taschetto, A. S., Ummenhofer, C. C., Moise, A. F., and Ashok, K.: The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 41, 3073–3102, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1, 2013. a
Jullien, S., Masson, S., Oerder, V., Samson, G., Colas, F., and Renault, L.:
Impact of ocean–atmosphere current feedback on ocean mesoscale activity:
Regional variations and sensitivity to model resolution, J. Climate, 33, 2585–2602, 2020. a
Kageyama, M., Merkel, U., Otto-Bliesner, B., Prange, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Roche, D. M., Singarayer, J., Swingedouw, D., and X Zhang: Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study, Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g
Kitoh, A., Endo, H., Krishna Kumar, K., Cavalcanti, I. F., Goswami, P., and
Zhou, T.: Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global
context, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 3053–3065, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50258, 2013. a, b
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher, J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic
global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere
system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005. a
Krinner, G., Lézine, A.-M., Braconnot, P., Sepulchre, P., Ramstein, G.,
Grenier, C., and Gouttevin, I.: A reassessment of lake and wetland feedbacks
on the North African Holocene climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L07701,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050992, 2012. a, b
Kuhlbrodt, T., Rahmstorf, S., Zickfeld, K., Vikebø, F. B., Sundby, S.,
Hofmann, M., Link, P. M., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., and Jaeger, C.: An
integrated assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation, Climatic
Change, 96, 489–537, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9561-y, 2009. a
Lange, S.: EartH2Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2016.004, 2016. a
Lau, K.-M., Ramanathan, V., Wu, G.-X., Li, Z., Tsay, S., Hsu, C., Sikka, R.,
Holben, B., Lu, D., Tartari, G., Chin, M., Koudelova, P., Chen, H., Ma, Y., Huang, J., Taniguchi, K., and Zhang, R.: The Joint Aerosol–Monsoon Experiment: A new challenge for monsoon climate research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 89, 369–384, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-369, 2008. a
Lean, J., Rottman, G., Harder, J., and Kopp, G.: SORCE contributions to new
understanding of global change and solar variability, in: The Solar Radiation
and Climate Experiment – (SORCE), Springer, 27–53,
https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-37625-9_3, 2005. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P.,
Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E. M., Fyfe, J., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., Zhou, T., Milinski, S., Yun, K.-S., Armour, K., Bellouin, N., Bethke, I., Byrne, M. P., Cassou, C., Chen, D., Cherchi, A., Christensen, H. M., Connors, S. L., Di Luca, A., Drijfhout, S. S., Fletcher, C. G., Forster, P., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gillett, N. P., Kaufmann, D. S., Keller, D. P., Kravitz, B., Li, H., Liang, Y., MacDougall, A. H., Malinina, E., Menary, M., Merryfield, W. J., Min, S.-K., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Notz, D., Pearson, B., Priestley, M.D. K., Quaas, J., Ribes, A., Ruane, A. C., Sallee, J.-B., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Seneviratne, S. I., Slangen, A. B. A., Smith, C., Stuecker, M. F., Swaminathan, R., Thorne, P. W., Tokarska, K. B., Toohey, M., Turner, A., Volpi, D., Xiao, C., and Zappa, G.: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth: Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Chapter 4, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B., IPCC, Genf, Switzerland, 1–195, 2021. a, b
Lefevre, F., Brasseur, G., Folkins, I., Smith, A., and Simon, P.: Chemistry of the 1991–1992 stratospheric winter: Three-dimensional model simulations,
J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 8183–8195, https://doi.org/10.1029/93JD03476, 1994. a
Lenton, T. M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rahmstorf, S., Richardson, K.,
Steffen, W., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Climate tipping points – too risky to
bet against, Nature, 575, 592–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0, 2019. a
Li, C. and Yanai, M.: The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land–sea thermal contrast, J. Climate, 9,
358–375, 1996. a
Li, X., Ting, M., Li, C., and Henderson, N.: Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 28, 4107–4125, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1, 2015. a
Liu, W. and Hu, A.: The role of the PMOC in modulating the deglacial shift of
the ITCZ, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3019–3034, 2015. a
Madec, G., Bourdallé-Badie, R., Bouttier, P.-A., Bricaud, C., Bruciaferri, D., Calvert, D., Chanut, J., Clementi, E., Coward, A., Delrosso, D., Ethé, C., Flavoni, S., Graham, T., Harle, J., Iovino, D., Lea, D., Lévy, C., Lovato, T., Martin, N., Masson, S., Mocavero, S., Paul, J., Rousset, C., Storkey, D., Storto, A., and Vancoppenolle, M.: NEMO ocean engine, NEMO ocean engine, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3248739, 2017. a
Mariotti, L., Diallo, I., Coppola, E., and Giorgi, F.: Seasonal and
intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX
projections, Climatic Change, 125, 53–65, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0, 2014. a
Marzin, C., Braconnot, P., and Kageyama, M.: Relative impacts of insolation
changes, meltwater fluxes and ice sheets on African and Asian monsoons during
the Holocene, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2267–2286, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1948-9, 2013a. a, b, c, d
Marzin, C., Kallel, N., Kageyama, M., Duplessy, J.-C., and Braconnot, P.:
Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North
Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments, Clim. Past, 9, 2135–2151, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2135-2013, 2013b. a, b, c, d
Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Covey, C., Latif, M., and Stouffer, R. J.: The
coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 313–318, 2000. a
Michelangeli, P.-A., Vrac, M., and Loukos, H.: Probabilistic downscaling
approaches: Application to wind cumulative distribution functions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L11708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038401, 2009. a
Mimura, N.: Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for
society, Proc. Japan Acad. Ser. B, 89, 281–301, https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.89.281, 2013. a, b
Monerie, P.-A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M., and Akinsanola, A. A.: Model
uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles
of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 55, 1385–1401,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0, 2020. a, b
Moon, S. and Ha, K.-J.: Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation
using CMIP6, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 3, 1–7, 2020. a
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K.,
Van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010. a, b, c, d
Network, V. L. D.: Total Lightning Statistics 2021: Vaisala Annual Lightning
Report, Vaisala, https://www.vaisala.com/en/annual-lightning-report, last access: 23 August 2022. a
Ongoma, V., Chen, H., and Gao, C.: Projected changes in mean rainfall and
temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1375–1392, 2018. a
Ortega, G., Arias, P. ., Villegas, J. C., Marquet, P. A., and Nobre, P.:
Present-day and future climate over central and South America according to
CMIP5/CMIP6 models, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 6713–6735, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7221, 2021. a
Peterson, B. J., McClelland, J., Curry, R., Holmes, R. M., Walsh, J. E., and
Aagaard, K.: Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle,
Science, 313, 1061–1066, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1122593, 2006. a
Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A. K. M. S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J., Bamba Sylla, M., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., and Zaaboul, R.: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ (last access: 23 August 2022), 2021. a, b
Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., van den Broeke, M. R., Monaghan, A., and Lenaerts,
J. T.: Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05503, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046583, 2011. a, b, c, d
Schiller, A., Mikolajewicz, U., and Voss, R.: The stability of the North
Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general
circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 13, 325–347, https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050169, 1997. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., van den Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M. E., Meier, A., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Ducharne, A., Dufresne, J.-L., Findell, K. L., Ghattas, J., Lawrence, D. M., Malyshev, S., Rummukainen, M., and Smith, B.: Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5212–5217, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50956, 2013. a
Shongwe, M. E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Van den Hurk, B., and van Aalst, M.:
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global
warming. Part II: East Africa, J. Climate, 24, 3718–3733,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1, 2011. a
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., and Bronaugh, D.: Climate
extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation
in the present climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 1716–1733, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203, 2013. a
Song, F., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Dong, L., Zhou, W., Harrop, B., and Qian, Y.:
Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 605–612, 2021. a
Stendel, M. and Christensen, J.: Impact of global warming on permafrost
conditions in a coupled GCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10–1, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014345, 2002. a
Stocker, T. F.: The seesaw effect, Science, 282, 61–62,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5386.61, 1998. a, b
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J., Dixon, K., Spelman, M., Hurlin, W.,
Weaver, A., Eby, M., Flato, G., Hasumi, H., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., Robitaille, D. Y., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, S. L.: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes, J. Climate, 19, 1365–1387, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3689.1, 2006. a, b, c, d, e, f
Suhaila, J., Deni, S. M., Wan Zin, W. Z., and Jemain, A. A.: Spatial patterns
and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the
southwest and northeast monsoons: 1975–2004, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 110, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-010-0108-6, 2010. a
Sutton, R. T., Dong, B., and Gregory, J. M.: Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028164, 2007. a
Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., and Schmittner, A.: Effect of the Greenland
ice-sheet melting on the response and stability of the AMOC in the next
centuries, Geophys. Monogr., 173, 383–392, https://doi.org/10.1029/173GM24, 2007. a
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Huybrechts, P., Goosse, H., Driesschaert, E., and Loutre, M.-F.: Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on
future climate warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034410, 2008. a, b
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., and Loutre, M.-F.: Impact of
transient freshwater releases in the Southern Ocean on the AMOC and climate,
Clim. Dynam., 33, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0496-1, 2009a. a, b
Swingedouw, D., Mignot, J., Braconnot, P., Mosquet, E., Kageyama, M., and
Alkama, R.: Impact of freshwater release in the North Atlantic under
different climate conditions in an OAGCM, J. Climate, 22, 6377–6403, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3028.1, 2009b. a
Swingedouw, D., Rodehacke, C. B., Behrens, E., Menary, M., Olsen, S. M., Gao,
Y., Mikolajewicz, U., Mignot, J., and Biastoch, A.: Decadal fingerprints of
freshwater discharge around Greenland in a multi-model ensemble, Clim. Dynam., 41, 695–720, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1479-9, 2013. a, b
Taylor, K., Stouffer, R., and Meehl, G.: An overview of CMIP5 and the
experimental design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a, b
Thompson, A. J., Skinner, C. B., Poulsen, C. J., and Zhu, J.: Modulation of
mid-Holocene African rainfall by dust aerosol direct and indirect effects,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 3917–3926, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081225, 2019. a
Tian, B. and Dong, X.: The double-ITCZ bias in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models
based on annual mean precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087232, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087232, 2020. a
Timbal, B. and Arblaster, J. M.: Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07717, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025361, 2006. a
Turner, A. G. and Annamalai, H.: Climate change and the South Asian summer
monsoon, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 587–595, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495, 2012. a, b
Valcke, S.: The OASIS3 coupler: A European climate modelling community
software, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013, 2013. a
Vellinga, M. and Wood, R. A.: Impacts of thermohaline circulation shutdown in
the twenty-first century, Climatic Change, 91, 43–63,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9146-y, 2008. a, b
Vrac, M. and Friederichs, P.: Multivariate – intervariable, spatial, and
temporal – bias correction, J. Climate, 28, 218–237,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00059.1, 2015. a, b
Wainwright, C. M., Black, E., and Allan, R. P.: Future changes in wet and dry
season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, J. Hydrometeorol., 22, 2339–2357, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1, 2021. a
Wang, B. and Ding, Q.: Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025347, 2006. a, b
Wang, B. and Ding, Q.: Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics, Dynam. Atmos. Ocean., 44, 165–183, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2007.05.002, 2008. a
Wang, B., Kim, H.-J., Kikuchi, K., and Kitoh, A.: Diagnostic metrics for
evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles, Clim. Dynam., 37, 941–955,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0877-0, 2011.
a
Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C., Chang, C.-P., Cook, K., Fu,
R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K.-J., Hendon, H., Kitoh, A., Krishnan, R., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Liu, J., Moise, A., Pascale, S., Roxy, M. K., Seth, A., Sui, C.-H., Turner, A., Yang, S., Yun, K.-S., Zhang, L., and Zhou, T.: Monsoons climate change assessment, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E1–E19, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0335.1, 2021. a, b
Weaver, A. J., Sedláček, J., Eby, M., Alexander, K., Crespin, E.,
Fichefet, T., Philippon-Berthier, G., Joos, F., Kawamiya, M., Matsumoto, K.,
Steinacher, M., Tachiiri, K., Tokos, K., Yoshimori, M., and Zickfeld, K.: Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: A model intercomparison, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20709, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053763, 2012. a
Xin, X., Wu, T., Zhang, J., Yao, J., and Fang, Y.: Comparison of CMIP6 and
CMIP5 simulations of precipitation in China and the East Asian summer
monsoon, Int. J. Climatol., 40, 6423–6440, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6590, 2020. a, b
Yang, W., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Lyon, B.: The rainfall annual cycle bias over East Africa in CMIP5 coupled climate models, J. Climate, 28,
9789–9802, 2015. a
Zhisheng, A., Guoxiong, W., Jianping, L., Youbin, S., Yimin, L., Weijian, Z.,
Yanjun, C., Anmin, D., Li, L., Jiangyu, M., Hai, C., Zhengguo, S., Liangcheng, T., Hong, Y., Hong, A., Hong, C., and Juan, F.: Global monsoon dynamics and climate change, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 43, 29–77, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054623, 2015. a
Zhou, T. and Zou, L.: Understanding the predictability of East Asian summer
monsoon from the reproduction of land–sea thermal contrast change in
AMIP-type simulation, J. Climate, 23, 6009–6026, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3546.1, 2010. a
Short summary
We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st century. The impact of a partial Antarctica melting is moderate. Conversely, Greenland melting slows down the oceanic Atlantic circulation and changes winds, temperature and pressure patterns, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over Africa and America. The seasonality, duration and intensity of rainfall events are affected, with potential severe impacts on vulnerable populations.
We study the impact of a rapid melting of the ice sheets on monsoon systems during the 21st...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint