Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Research article
 | 
17 Jun 2021
Research article |  | 17 Jun 2021

Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets

Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael

Related authors

A normalised framework for the Zero Emissions Commitment
Richard G. Williams, Philip Goodwin, Paulo Ceppi, Chris D. Jones, and Andrew MacDougall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-800,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-800, 2025
Short summary
Climate feedbacks with latitude derived from climatological data and theory
Philip Goodwin, Richard Williams, Paulo Ceppi, and B. B. Cael
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2307, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
A computationally efficient method for probabilistic local warming projections constrained by history matching and pattern scaling, demonstrated by WASP–LGRTC-1.0
Philip Goodwin, Martin Leduc, Antti-Ilari Partanen, H. Damon Matthews, and Alex Rogers
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5389–5399, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020, 2020
Short summary
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Malte Meinshausen, Jared Lewis, Robert Gieseke, Dietmar Dommenget, Kalyn Dorheim, Chen-Shuo Fan, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Thomas Gasser, Ulrich Golüke, Philip Goodwin, Corinne Hartin, Austin P. Hope, Elmar Kriegler, Nicholas J. Leach, Davide Marchegiani, Laura A. McBride, Yann Quilcaille, Joeri Rogelj, Ross J. Salawitch, Bjørn H. Samset, Marit Sandstad, Alexey N. Shiklomanov, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Christopher J. Smith, Steve Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka, Junichi Tsutsui, and Zhiang Xie
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5175–5190, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 1630–1648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00545.1, 2015. 
Annan, J. D.: Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 263–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5, 2015. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020. 
Bodman, R. W. and Jones, R. N.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 461–473, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.397, 2016. 
Cattell, R. B.: The scree test for the number of factors, Journal of Multivariate Behavioral Research 1, 245–276, 1966. 
More articles (44)
Download
Short summary
Climate sensitivity is a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint