Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021

Research article 17 Jun 2021

Research article | 17 Jun 2021

Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets

Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael

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Cited articles

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 1630–1648, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00545.1, 2015. 
Annan, J. D.: Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity, Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 263–267, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0023-5, 2015. 
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020. 
Bodman, R. W. and Jones, R. N.: Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity using observationally constrained simple climate models, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 461–473, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.397, 2016. 
Cattell, R. B.: The scree test for the number of factors, Journal of Multivariate Behavioral Research 1, 245–276, 1966. 
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Climate sensitivity is a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
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