Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Research article
 | 
17 Jun 2021
Research article |  | 17 Jun 2021

Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets

Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael

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Short summary
Climate sensitivity is a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
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