Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
22 Dec 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 22 Dec 2021

Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray

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Benestad, R., Parding, K., Dobler, A., and Mezghani, A.: A Strategy to Effectively Make Use of Large Volumes of Climate Data for Climate Change Adaptation, Climate Services, 6, 48–54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2017.06.013, 2017a. a
Benestad, R., Sillmann, J., Thorarinsdottir, T. L., Guttorp, P., Mesquita, M. D. S., Tye, M. R., Uotila, P., Maule, C. F., Thejll, P., Drews, M., and Parding, K. M.: New Vigour Involving Statisticians to Overcome Ensemble Fatigue, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 697–703, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3393, 2017b. a
Bichet, A., Diedhiou, A., Hingray, B., Evin, G., Touré, N. E., Browne, K. N. A., and Kouadio, K.: Assessing Uncertainties in the Regional Projections of Precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA, Clim. Change, 162, 583–601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02833-z, 2020. a
Boé, J., Somot, S., Corre, L., and Nabat, P.: Large Discrepancies in Summer Climate Change over Europe as Projected by Global and Regional Climate Models: Causes and Consequences, Clim. Dynam., 54, 2981–3002, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1, 2020. a, b
Brunner, L., McSweeney, C., Ballinger, A. P., Befort, D. J., Benassi, M., Booth, B., Coppola, E., de Vries, H., Harris, G., Hegerl, G. C., Knutti, R., Lenderink, G., Lowe, J., Nogherotto, R., O'Reilly, C., Qasmi, S., Ribes, A., Stocchi, P., and Undorf, S.: Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework, J. Climate, 33, 8671–8692, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1, 2020. a
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This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
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