Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Evin, Guillaume; Somot, Samuel; Hingray, Benoit

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

22 Dec 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 22 Dec 2021

Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021-supplement

Model code and software

QUALYPSO: Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections G. Evin https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=QUALYPSO

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Short summary

This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.