Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2021
| 26 Nov 2021
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Andrey Ganopolski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the...
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