Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Andrey Ganopolski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022
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- The Anthropocene as an epoch is distinct from all other concepts known by this term: a reply to Swindles et al. (2023) M. Head et al. 10.1002/jqs.3513
- Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes C. Kaufhold et al. 10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025
- The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis C. Summerhayes et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568
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- Role of the geosphere in deep nuclear waste disposal – An England and Wales perspective J. Turner et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104445
- Deep-future climate change scenarios for site selection of nuclear waste disposal in Germany C. Kaufhold & A. Ganopolski 10.5194/sand-2-89-2023
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- High-resolution analysis of the varved succession at Crawford lake across the base of the proposed Crawfordian stage and Anthropocene series F. McCarthy et al. 10.1177/20530196251315454
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- Do phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models have physical similarity with Nature? Seemingly, not all of them do M. Verbitsky & M. Crucifix 10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023
- Influence of the choice of insolation forcing on the results of a conceptual glacial cycle model G. Leloup & D. Paillard 10.5194/cp-18-547-2022
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022
- Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles S. Talento & A. Ganopolski 10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
- The Anthropocene as an epoch is distinct from all other concepts known by this term: a reply to Swindles et al. (2023) M. Head et al. 10.1002/jqs.3513
- Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes C. Kaufhold et al. 10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025
- The future extent of the Anthropocene epoch: A synthesis C. Summerhayes et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104568
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks M. Zeitz et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022
- Role of the geosphere in deep nuclear waste disposal – An England and Wales perspective J. Turner et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104445
- Deep-future climate change scenarios for site selection of nuclear waste disposal in Germany C. Kaufhold & A. Ganopolski 10.5194/sand-2-89-2023
- Toward generalized Milankovitch theory (GMT) A. Ganopolski 10.5194/cp-20-151-2024
- High-resolution analysis of the varved succession at Crawford lake across the base of the proposed Crawfordian stage and Anthropocene series F. McCarthy et al. 10.1177/20530196251315454
- Inarticulate past: similarity properties of the ice–climate system and their implications for paleo-record attribution M. Verbitsky 10.5194/esd-13-879-2022
- Assessing future ice-sheet variability for long-term safety of deep geological repositories J. Liakka et al. 10.5194/adgeo-65-71-2024
- Holocene palaeoclimate N. Hausmann & Y. Saito 10.1038/s41598-024-75672-y
- New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception S. Talento et al. 10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024
- Do phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models have physical similarity with Nature? Seemingly, not all of them do M. Verbitsky & M. Crucifix 10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023
- Influence of the choice of insolation forcing on the results of a conceptual glacial cycle model G. Leloup & D. Paillard 10.5194/cp-18-547-2022
Latest update: 24 Jun 2025
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the...
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