Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Research article
 | 
26 Nov 2021
Research article |  | 26 Nov 2021

Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles

Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski

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Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
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