Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020

Special issue: Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020

Research article 26 Mar 2020

Research article | 26 Mar 2020

Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

Olivier Champagne et al.

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Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario
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Cited articles

Buttle, J. M., Allen, D. M., Caissie, D., Davison, B., Hayashi, M., Peters, D. L., Pomeroy, J. W., Simonovic, S., St-Hilaire, A., and Whitfield, P. H.: Flood processes in Canada: Regional and special aspects, Can. Water Resour. J./Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 41, 7–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2015.1131629, 2016. 
Champagne, O., Arain, M. A., and Coulibaly, P.: Atmospheric circulation amplifies shift of winter streamflow in Southern Ontario, J. Hydrol., 578, 124051, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124051, 2019a. 
Champagne, O., Arain, A., Leduc, M., Coulibaly, P., and McKenzie, S.: Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by internal variability of climate in southern Ontario, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-204, in review, 2019b. 
Cohen, J., Ye, H., and Jones, J.: Trends and variability in rain-on-snow events: RAIN-ON-SNOW, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7115–7122, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065320, 2015. 
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Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
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