Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Research article
26 Mar 2020
Research article |  | 26 Mar 2020

Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain

Related authors

Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by the internal variability of climate in southern Ontario
Olivier Champagne, M. Altaf Arain, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and Shawn McKenzie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3077–3096,,, 2020
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing
Saïd Qasmi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 685–695,,, 2023
Short summary
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483,,, 2023
Short summary
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442,,, 2023
Short summary
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290,,, 2023
Short summary
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119,,, 2023
Short summary

Cited articles

Buttle, J. M., Allen, D. M., Caissie, D., Davison, B., Hayashi, M., Peters, D. L., Pomeroy, J. W., Simonovic, S., St-Hilaire, A., and Whitfield, P. H.: Flood processes in Canada: Regional and special aspects, Can. Water Resour. J./Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 41, 7–30,, 2016. 
Champagne, O., Arain, M. A., and Coulibaly, P.: Atmospheric circulation amplifies shift of winter streamflow in Southern Ontario, J. Hydrol., 578, 124051,, 2019a. 
Champagne, O., Arain, A., Leduc, M., Coulibaly, P., and McKenzie, S.: Future shift in winter streamflow modulated by internal variability of climate in southern Ontario, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,, in review, 2019b. 
Cohen, J., Ye, H., and Jones, J.: Trends and variability in rain-on-snow events: RAIN-ON-SNOW, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 7115–7122,, 2015. 
Short summary
Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
Final-revised paper