Articles | Volume 11, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020

Special issue: Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020

Research article 26 Mar 2020

Research article | 26 Mar 2020

Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario

Olivier Champagne et al.

Data sets

Historical Hydrometric Data – Water Level and Flow Environment and Climate Change Canada https://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/mainmenu/historical_data_index_e.html

Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) USGS https://www.usgs.gov/software/precipitation-runoff-modeling-system-prms

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Short summary
Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
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