Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-1-1-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-1-1-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Oct 2010
Research article |
| 04 Oct 2010
A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, water balance, and peat accumulation
S. Frolking
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space & Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA
N. T. Roulet
Department of Geography & The McGill School of Environment, McGill University, Montréal, Canada
E. Tuittila
Dept. of Forest Ecology, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
J. L. Bubier
Environmental Studies Program, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley MA, USA
A. Quillet
Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement and Géotop, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Canada
J. Talbot
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space & Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA
P. J. H. Richard
Département de Géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: models
Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland
The modelled climatic response to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and its role in decadal temperature trends
The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences
Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6
Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System
Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States
Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance
Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering
Process-based estimate of global-mean sea-level changes in the Common Era
Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains
Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing
Estimating the lateral transfer of organic carbon through the European river network using a land surface model
Effect of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on atmospheric pCO2 variations
A methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards: wind and precipitation extremes in Great Britain (1979–2019)
MESMER-M: an Earth system model emulator for spatially resolved monthly temperature
Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France
Agricultural management effects on mean and extreme temperature trends
Weakened impact of the Atlantic Niño on the future equatorial Atlantic and Guinea Coast rainfall
The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100
Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6
The sensitivity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to volcanic aerosol spatial distribution in the MPI Grand Ensemble
Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region
Climate change projections of terrestrial primary productivity over the Hindu Kush Himalayan forests
Bookkeeping estimates of the net land-use change flux – a sensitivity study with the CMIP6 land-use dataset
Climate-controlled root zone parameters show potential to improve water flux simulations by land surface models
Space–time dependence of compound hot–dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations
The thermal response of small and shallow lakes to climate change: new insights from 3D hindcast modelling
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators
Characterisation of Atlantic meridional overturning hysteresis using Langevin dynamics
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Future sea level contribution from Antarctica inferred from CMIP5 model forcing and its dependence on precipitation ansatz
The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context
Effect of changing ocean circulation on deep ocean temperature in the last millennium
How large does a large ensemble need to be?
Reconstructing coupled time series in climate systems using three kinds of machine-learning methods
An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles
What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
Using a nested single-model large ensemble to assess the internal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its climatic implications for central Europe
Climate change in a conceptual atmosphere–phytoplankton model
Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land
A global semi-empirical glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data
Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution
Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change
Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 593–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate proxy records show that the North Atlantic climate repeatedly transitioned between two regimes during the last glacial interval. This study investigates a bivariate proxy record from a Greenland ice core which reflects past Greenland temperatures and large-scale atmospheric conditions. We reconstruct the underlying deterministic drift by estimating first-order Kramers–Moyal coefficients and identify two separate stable states in agreement with the aforementioned climatic regimes.
Manoj Joshi, Robert A. Hall, David P. Stevens, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 443–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle arises from variations in the angle of the Moon's orbital plane and affects ocean tides. In this work we use a climate model to examine the effect of this cycle on the ocean, surface, and atmosphere. The timing of anomalies is consistent with the so-called slowdown in global warming and has implications for when global temperatures will exceed 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. Regional anomalies have implications for seasonal climate areas such as Europe.
Nicola Maher, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, Pedro DiNezio, Jeremy Klavans, Sebastian Milinski, Sara C. Sanchez, Samantha Stevenson, Malte F. Stuecker, and Xian Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 413–431, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-413-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is likely to change in the future is important due to its widespread impacts. By using large ensembles, we can robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO variability in 14 climate models. We find that ENSO variability evolves in a nonlinear fashion in many models and that there are large differences between models. These nonlinear changes imply that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a causal discovery method to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent the interactions between the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the Pacific decadal variability (PDV). The approach and findings in this study present a powerful methodology that can be applied to a number of environment-related topics, offering tremendous insights to improve the understanding of the complex Earth system and the state of the art of climate modeling.
Elias C. Massoud, Lauren Andrews, Rolf Reichle, Andrea Molod, Jongmin Park, Sophie Ruehr, and Manuela Girotto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 147–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we benchmark the forecast skill of the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System subseasonal-to-seasonal (GEOS-S2S version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology on the seasonal timescale.
Adrienne M. Wootten, Elias C. Massoud, Duane E. Waliser, and Huikyo Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 121–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-121-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-121-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting are increasingly used for climate assessments. This study examines the sensitivity of projections to multi-model ensemble weighting strategies in the south-central United States. Model weighting and ensemble means are sensitive to the domain and variable used. There are numerous findings regarding the improvement in skill with model weighting and the sensitivity associated with various strategies.
Han Qiu, Dalei Hao, Yelu Zeng, Xuesong Zhang, and Min Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex. In our analyses, we found that both the global and the northern-high-latitude (NHL) ecosystems will continue to have positive net ecosystem production (NEP) in the next few decades under four global change scenarios but with large uncertainties. NHL ecosystems will experience faster climate warming but steadily contribute a small fraction of the global NEP. However, the relative uncertainty of NHL NEP is much larger than the global values.
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Maria Rugenstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1715–1736, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a measure of how much long-term warming should be expected in response to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations. It is generally calculated in climate models by extrapolating global average temperatures to a point of where the planet is no longer a net absorber of energy. Here we show that some climate models experience energy leaks which change as the planet warms, undermining the standard approach and biasing some existing model estimates of ECS.
Jun Wang, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Chao Yue, and Zhenhua Di
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine how geoengineering using aerosols in the atmosphere might impact urban climate in the greater Beijing region containing over 50 million people. Climate models have too coarse resolutions to resolve regional variations well, so we compare two workarounds for this – an expensive physical model and a cheaper statistical method. The statistical method generally gives a reasonable representation of climate and has limited resolution and a different seasonality from the physical model.
Nidheesh Gangadharan, Hugues Goosse, David Parkes, Heiko Goelzer, Fabien Maussion, and Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1417-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe the contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-ice melting (ice sheets and glaciers) to global-mean sea-level (GMSL) changes in the Common Era. The mass contributions are the major sources of GMSL changes in the pre-industrial Common Era and glaciers are the largest contributor. The paper also describes the current state of climate modelling, uncertainties and knowledge gaps along with the potential implications of the past variabilities in the contemporary sea-level rise.
Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
Riccardo Silini, Sebastian Lerch, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Holger Kantz, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1157–1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has important socioeconomic impacts due to its influence on both tropical and extratropical weather extremes. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) to correct the predictions of the weather model holding the best performance, developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We show that the ML post-processing leads to an improved prediction of the MJO geographical location and intensity.
Haicheng Zhang, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Philippe Ciais, Kristof Van Oost, Victoria Naipal, Bertrand Guenet, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1119–1144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1119-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a land surface model which can simulate the complete lateral transfer of sediment and carbon from land to ocean through rivers. Our model captures the water, sediment, and organic carbon discharges in European rivers well. Application of our model in Europe indicates that lateral carbon transfer can strongly change regional land carbon budgets by affecting organic carbon distribution and soil moisture.
Amber Boot, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1041–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pCO2 of the past shows large variability on different timescales. We focus on the effect of the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on this variability and on the AMOC–pCO2 relationship. We find that climatic boundary conditions and the representation of biology in our model are most important for this relationship. Under certain conditions, we find internal oscillations, which can be relevant for atmospheric pCO2 variability during glacial cycles.
Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, and Amélie Joly-Laugel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 993–1020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hazards occur when two different natural hazards impact the same time period and spatial area. This article presents a methodology for the spatiotemporal identification of compound hazards (SI–CH). The methodology is applied to compound precipitation and wind extremes in Great Britain for the period 1979–2019. The study finds that the SI–CH approach can accurately identify single and compound hazard events and represent their spatial and temporal properties.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
Aine M. Gormley-Gallagher, Sebastian Sterl, Annette L. Hirsch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that agricultural management can impact the local climate and highlight the need to evaluate land management in climate models. We use regression analysis on climate simulations and observations to assess irrigation and conservation agriculture impacts on warming trends. This allowed us to distinguish between the effects of land management and large-scale climate forcings such as rising CO2 concentrations and thus gain insight into the impacts under different climate regimes.
Koffi Worou, Hugues Goosse, Thierry Fichefet, and Fred Kucharski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 231–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-231-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Guinea Coast, the increased rainfall associated with warm phases of the Atlantic Niño is reasonably well simulated by 24 climate models out of 31, for the present-day conditions. In a warmer climate, general circulation models project a gradual decrease with time of the rainfall magnitude associated with the Atlantic Niño for the 2015–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods. There is a higher confidence in these changes over the equatorial Atlantic than over the Guinea Coast.
Roman Procyk, Shaun Lovejoy, and Raphael Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 81–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-81-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-81-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new class of energy balance model that accounts for the long memory within the Earth's energy storage. The model is calibrated on instrumental temperature records and the historical energy budget of the Earth using an error model predicted by the model itself. Our equilibrium climate sensitivity and future temperature projection estimates are consistent with those estimated by complex climate models.
Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1061–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.
Benjamin Ward, Francesco S. R. Pausata, and Nicola Maher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 975–996, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-975-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Using the largest ensemble of a climate model currently available, the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), we investigated the impact of the spatial distribution of volcanic aerosols on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. By selecting three eruptions with different aerosol distributions, we found that the shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the main driver of the ENSO response, while other mechanisms commonly invoked seem less important in our model.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Halima Usman, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anders Ahlström, and Sofia Baig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 857–870, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-857-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-857-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The study assesses the impacts of climate change on forest productivity in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. LPJ-GUESS was simulated from 1851 to 2100. In first approach, the model was compared with observational estimates. The comparison showed a moderate agreement. In the second approach, the model was assessed for the temporal and spatial trends of net biome productivity and its components along with carbon pool. Increases in both variables were predicted in 2100.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 725–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The roots of vegetation largely control the Earth's water cycle by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere but are not adequately represented in land surface models, causing uncertainties in modeled water fluxes. We replaced the root parameters in an existing model with more realistic ones that account for a climate control on root development and found improved timing of modeled river discharge. Further extension of our approach could improve modeled water fluxes globally.
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.
Francesco Piccioni, Céline Casenave, Bruno Jacques Lemaire, Patrick Le Moigne, Philippe Dubois, and Brigitte Vinçon-Leite
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 439–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-439-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-439-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Small lakes are ecosystems highly impacted by climate change. Here, the thermal regime of a small, shallow lake over the past six decades was reconstructed via 3D modelling. Significant changes were found: strong water warming in spring and summer (0.7 °C/decade) as well as increased stratification and thermal energy for cyanobacteria growth, especially in spring. The strong spatial patterns detected for stratification might create local conditions particularly favourable to cyanobacteria bloom.
Pablo Ortega, Jon I. Robson, Matthew Menary, Rowan T. Sutton, Adam Blaker, Agathe Germe, Jöel J.-M. Hirschi, Bablu Sinha, Leon Hermanson, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 419–438, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-419-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Deep Labrador Sea densities are receiving increasing attention because of their link to many of the processes that govern decadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic and their potential use as a precursor of those changes. This article explores those links and how they are represented in global climate models, documenting the main differences across models. Models are finally compared with observational products to identify the ones that reproduce the links more realistically.
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different ways. However, little is known about how and why basic model assumptions affect model results. We compared two models that represent land use in completely distinct ways and found several results that differed greatly. We identify the main assumptions that caused these differences and therefore key issues that need to be addressed for more robust model development.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
Jelle van den Berk, Sybren Drijfhout, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can be described by six parameters and Langevin dynamics. These parameters can be determined from collapses seen in climate models of intermediate complexity. With this parameterisation, it might be possible to estimate how much fresh water is needed to observe a collapse in more complicated models and reality.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Christian B. Rodehacke, Madlene Pfeiffer, Tido Semmler, Özgür Gurses, and Thomas Kleiner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1153–1194, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1153-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In the warmer future, Antarctica's ice sheet will lose more ice due to enhanced iceberg calving and a warming ocean that melts more floating ice from below. However, the hydrological cycle is also stronger in a warmer world. Hence, more snowfall will precipitate on Antarctica and may balance the amplified ice loss. We have used future climate scenarios from various global climate models to perform numerous ice sheet simulations to show that precipitation may counteract mass loss.
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to heat waves over Scandinavia and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on both agriculture and human life. Using five climate model ensembles, the unique 263-year Stockholm temperature time series and a composite 150-year time series for the whole of Sweden, we found that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed in 2018, occurring in Sweden.
Jeemijn Scheen and Thomas F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 925–951, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-925-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Variability of sea surface temperatures (SST) in 1200–2000 CE is quite well-known, but the history of deep ocean temperatures is not. Forcing an ocean model with these SSTs, we simulate temperatures in the ocean interior. The circulation changes alter the amplitude and timing of deep ocean temperature fluctuations below 2 km depth, e.g. delaying the atmospheric signal by ~ 200 years in the deep Atlantic. Thus ocean circulation changes are shown to be as important as SST changes at these depths.
Sebastian Milinski, Nicola Maher, and Dirk Olonscheck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 885–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-885-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Initial-condition large ensembles with ensemble sizes ranging from 30 to 100 members have become a commonly used tool to quantify the forced response and internal variability in various components of the climate system, but there is no established method to determine the required ensemble size for a given problem. We propose a new framework that can be used to estimate the required ensemble size from a model's control run or an existing large ensemble.
Yu Huang, Lichao Yang, and Zuntao Fu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 835–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the applicability of machine learning (ML) on time series reconstruction and find that the dynamical coupling relation and nonlinear causality are crucial for the application of ML. Our results could provide insights into causality and ML approaches for paleoclimate reconstruction, parameterization schemes, and prediction in climate studies.
Anna Louise Merrifield, Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Iselin Medhaug, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Justifiable uncertainty estimates of future change in northern European winter and Mediterranean summer temperature can be obtained by weighting a multi-model ensemble comprised of projections from different climate models and multiple projections from the same climate model. Weights reduce the influence of model biases and handle dependence by identifying a projection's model of origin from historical characteristics; contributions from the same model are scaled by the number of members.
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-709-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the potential of variability for constraining the equilibrium response of the climate system to external forcing. We show that the constraint is inherently skewed, with a long tail to high sensitivity, and that while the variability may contain some useful information, it is unlikely to generate a tight constraint.
Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Martin Leduc
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 617–640, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
North Atlantic air pressure variations influencing European climate variables are simulated in coarse-resolution global climate models (GCMs). As single-model runs do not sufficiently describe variations of their patterns, several model runs with slightly diverging initial conditions are analyzed. The study shows that GCM and regional climate model (RCM) patterns vary in a similar range over the same domain, while RCMs add consistent fine-scale information due to their higher spatial resolution.
György Károlyi, Rudolf Dániel Prokaj, István Scheuring, and Tamás Tél
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 603–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-603-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-603-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We construct a conceptual model to understand the interplay between the atmosphere and the ocean biosphere in a climate change framework, including couplings between extraction of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton and climate change, temperature and carrying capacity of phytoplankton, and wind energy and phytoplankton production. We find that sufficiently strong mixing can result in decaying global phytoplankton content.
Kira Rehfeld, Raphaël Hébert, Juan M. Lora, Marcus Lofverstrom, and Chris M. Brierley
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 447–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-447-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Under continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is likely that global mean surface temperature will continue to increase. Little is known about changes in climate variability. We analyze surface climate variability and compare it to mean change in colder- and warmer-than-present climate model simulations. In most locations, but not on subtropical land, simulated temperature variability up to decadal timescales decreases with mean temperature, and precipitation variability increases.
Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 329–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-329-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.
Lea Beusch, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run. Here, we present a statistical tool which emulates ESMs at a negligible computational cost by creating stochastic realizations of yearly land temperature field time series. Thereby, 40 ESMs are considered, and for each ESM, a single simulation is required to train the tool. The resulting ESM-specific realizations closely resemble ESM simulations not employed during training at point to regional scales.
Yu Sun and Riccardo E. M. Riva
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 129–137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-129-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The solid Earth is still deforming because of the effect of past ice sheets through glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Satellite gravity observations by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are sensitive to those signals but are superimposed on the redistribution effect of water masses by the hydrological cycle. We propose a method separating the two signals, providing new constraints for forward GIA models and estimating the global water cycle's patterns and magnitude.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Calum Brown, Bumsuk Seo, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 809–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.
Cited articles
Backéus, I.: Production and depth distribution of fine roots in a boreal open bog, Ann. Bot. Fennici, 27, 261–265, 1990.
Bauer, I. E.: Modelling effects of litter quality and environment on peat accumulation over different time-scales, J. Ecol., 92, 661–674, 2004.
Beaudoin, A.: A comparison of two methods for estimating the organic content of sediments, J. Paleolimnol., 29, 387–390, 2003.
Beer, J. and Blodau, C.: Transport and thermodynamics constrain belowground carbon turnover in a northern peatland, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 71, 2989–3002, 2007.
Beer, J., Lee, K., Whiticar, M., and Blodau, C.: Geochemical controls on anaerobic organic matter decomposition in a northern peatland, Limnol. Oceanogr., 53, 1393–1407, 2008.
Belyea, L. R.: Separating the effects of litter quality and microenvironment on decomposition rates in a patterned peatland, Oikos, 77, 529–539, 1996.
Belyea, L. R. and Baird, A. J.: Beyond "The limits to peat bog growth": Cross-scale feedback in peatland development, Ecol. Monogr., 76, 299–322, 2006.
Belyea, L. R. and Malmer, N.: Carbon sequestration in peatland: patterns and mechanisms of response to climate change, Glob. Change Biol., 10, 1043–1052, 2004.
Bennett, K. D. and Fuller, J. L.: Determining the age of the mid-Holocene Tsuga canadensis (hemlock) decline, eastern North America. The Holocene, 12, 421–429, 2002.
Bernard, J. M.: Seasonal changes in standing crop and primary production in a sedge dominated wetland and an adjacent dry old-field in central Minnesota, Ecology, 55, 350–359, 1974.
Bubier, J. L., Crill P. M., Moore T. R., Savage K., and Varner, R. K.: Seasonal patterns and controls on net ecosystem CO2 exchange in a boreal peatland complex, Glob. Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 703–714, 1998.
Bubier, J., Moore, T., and Crosby G.: Fine-scale vegetation distribution in a cool temperate bog, Can. J. Bot., 84, 910–923, 2006.
Bubier, J. L., Bhatia, G., Moore, T. R., Roulet, N. T., and Lafleur, P. M.: Spatial and temporal variability in growing season net ecosystem CO2 exchange at a large peatland, Ontario, Canada, Ecosystems, 6, 353–367, 2003.
Charman, D.: Peatlands and Environmental Change, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England, 301 pp., 2002.
Charman, D. J.: Summer water table deficit variability controls on peatland water-table changes: implications for Holocene palaeoclimate reconstructions, Holocene, 17, 217–227, 2007.
Clymo, R. S.: The limits to peat bog growth, Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. B, 303, 605–654, 1984.
Clymo, R. S.: Peat growth, 76–112 in Quaternary Landscapes, edited by: Shane, L. C. K. and Cushing, E. J., U. Minnesota Press, Minneapolis MN, 1991.
Clymo, R. S.: Models of peat growth, Suo, 43, 127–136, 1992.
Clymo, R. S., Turunen, J., and Tolonen, K.: Carbon accumulation in peatland, Oikos, 81, 368–388, 1998.
Comas, X., Slater, L., and Reeve, A.: Geophysical evidence for peat basin morphology and stratigraphic controls on vegetation observed in a Northern Peatland, J. Hydrol., 295, 173–184, 2004.
Co\^{u}teaux, M.: Notes sur le prélévement et la préparation de certains sediments, Pollen et Spores, 4, 317–322, 1962.
Dean, W. E.: Determination of carbonate and organic matter in calcareous sediments and sedimentary rocks by loss on ignition. Comparison with other methods, J. Sediment. Petrol., 44, 242–248, 1974.
Dise, N. B.: Peatland response to global change, Science, 326, 810–811, 2009.
Eppinga, M. B., de Ruiter, P. C., Wassen, M. J., and Rietkerk, M.: Nutrients and hydrology indicate the driving mechanisms of peatland surface patterning, Am. Nat., 173, 803–818, 2009.
Eppinga, M. B., Rietkerk, M., Borren, W., Lapshina, E. D., Bleuten, W., and Wassen, M. J.: Regular surface patterning of peatlands: Confronting theory with field data, Ecosystems, 11, 520–536, 2008.
Forrest, G. I. and Smith, R. A. H.: The productivity of a range of blanket bog vegetation types in the northern Pennines, J. Ecol., 63, 173–202, 1975.
Fraser, C. J. D., Roulet, N. T., and Lafleur, P. M.: Groundwater flow patterns in a large peatland, J. Hydrol., 246, 142–154, 2001.
Frolking, S. and Roulet, N. T.: Holocene radiative forcing impact of northern peatland carbon accumulation and methane emissions, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 1079–1088, 2007.
Frolking, S., Roulet, N. T., and Lawrence, D.: Issues related to incorporating northern peatlands into global climate models, 19–35 in Northern Peatlands and Carbon Cycling, edited by: Baird, A., Belyea, L., Comas, X., Reeve, A., and Slater, L., Geophysical Monograph 184, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington DC, 2009.
Frolking, S., Roulet, N. T., Moore, T. R., Richard, P. J. H., Lavoie, M., and Muller, S. D.: Modeling northern peatland decomposition and peat accumulation, Ecosystems, 4, 479–498, 2001.
Glaser, P. H., Janssens, J. J., and Siegel, D. I.: The response of vegetation to chemical and hydrological gradients in the Lost River Peatland, northern Minnesota, J. Ecol., 78, 1021–1048, 1990.
Glaser, P. H.: Ecological development of patterned peatlands, in: The patterned peatlands of Minnesota, edited by: Wright, H. E., Coffin, J. B. A., and Aaseng, N. E., University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, 27–43, 1992.
Gorham, E.: Northern peatlands: Role in the carbon budget and probable responses to global warming, Ecol. Appl., 1, 182–195, 1991.
Gunnarsson, U.: Global patterns of Sphagnum productivity, J. Bryology, 27, 269–279, 2005.
Hilbert, D. W., Roulet, N., and Moore, T.: Modelling and analysis of peatlands as dynamical systems, J. Ecol., 88, 230–242, 2000.
Hogg, E. H.: Decay potentials of hummock and hollow Sphagnum peats at different depths in a Swedish raised bog, Oikos 66, 269–78, 1993.
Hoorens, B., Stroetenga, M., and Aerts, R.: Litter mixture interactions at the level of plant functional types are additive, Ecosystems, 13, 90–98, 2010.
Hughes, P. D. M. and Barber, K. E.: Contrasting pathways to ombrotrophy on three raised bogs from Ireland and Cumbria, England, Holocene, 14, 65–77, 2004.
Ingram, H.: Size and shape in raised mire ecosystems – a geophysical model, Nature, 297, 300–303, 1982.
Ivanov, K. E.: Water Movement in Mirelands, New York, Academics Press, 1981.
Jones, M. C. and Yu, Z.: Rapid deglacial and early Holocene expansion of peatlands in Alaska, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 7347–7352, 2010.
Jowsey, P. C.: An improved peat sampler, The New Phytologist, 65, 245–248, 1966.
Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., von Bloh, W., Archer, D., and Munhoven, G.: Holocene carbon cycle dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041391, 2010.
Klinger, L. F. and Short, S. K.: Succession in the Hudson Bay Lowland, Northern Ontario, Canada, Arctic Alpine Res., 28, 172–183, 1996.
Koehler, A.-K., Sottocornola, M., and Kiely, G.: How strong is the current carbon sequestration of an Atlantic blanket bog?, Glob. Change Biol., https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02180.x, 2010.
Korhola, A.: Mire induction, ecosystem dynamics and lateral extension on raised bogs in the southern coastal area of Finland, Fennia, 170, 25–94, 1992.
Lafleur, P. M., Roulet, N. T., Bubier, J. L., Moore, T. R., and Frolking, S.: Interannual variability in the peatland-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange at an ombrotrophic bog, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 17, 1036, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GB001983, 2003.
Lafleur, P. M., Hember, R. A., Admiral, S. W., and Roulet, N. T.: Annual and seasonal variability in evapotranspiration and water table at a shrub-covered bog in southern Ontario, Canada, Hydrol. Proc., 19, 3533–3550, 2005b.
Lafleur, P. M., Moore, T. R., Roulet, N. T., and Frolking, S.: Dependency of ecosystem respiration in a cool temperate bog on peat temperature and water table, Ecosystems, 8, 619–629, 2005a.
Laiho, R.: Decomposition in peatlands: reconciling seemingly contrasting results on the impacts of lowered water levels, Soil. Biol. Biochem., 38, 2011–2024, 2006.
Laine, A., Byrne, K. A., Kiely, G., and Tuittila, E.-S.: The short-term effect of altered water level on carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in a blanket bog, Suo, 65–83, 2009.
Leppälä, M., Kukko-Oja, K., Laine, J., and Tuittila, E.-S.: Seasonal dynamics of CO2 exchange during primary succession of boreal mires as controlled by phenology of plants, Écoscience, 15, 460–471, 2008.
MacDonald, G., Beilman, D., Kremenetski, K., Sheng, Y., Smith, L., and Velichko, A.: Rapid early development of circumarctic peatlands and atmospheric CH4 and CO2 variations, Science, 314, 285–288, 2006.
Makiloff-Fletcher, S., Tans, P. P., Bruhwiler, L. M., and Miller, J. B.: CH4 sources estimated by atmospheric observations of CH4 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratios: 2. Inverse modeling of CH4 flux from geographical regions, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB4005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002224, 2004.
Mauquoy, D., Yeloff, D., van Geel, B., Charman, D. J., and Blundell, A.: Two decadally resolved records from north-west European peat bogs show rapid climate changes associated with solar variability during the mid-late Holocene, J. Quater. Sci., 23, 745–763, 2008.
McGuire, A. D., Anderson, L., Christesen, T., Dallimore, S., Guo, L., Hayes, D., Heimann, M., Lorenson, T., Macdonald, R., and Roulet, N.: Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change, Ecol. Monog., 79, 523–555, 2009.
Merilä, P., Galand, P. E., Fritze, H., Tuittila, E. S., Kukko-oja, K., Laine, J., and Yrjälä, K.: Methanogen communities along a primary succession transect of mire ecosystems, FEMS Microbiol Ecol., 55, 221–229, 2006.
Moore, T. R., Bubier, J. L., and Bledzki, L. A.: Litter decomposition in temperate peatlands: the effect of substrate and site, Ecosystems, 10, 949–963, 2007.
Moore, T. R., Bubier, J. L., Frolking, S., Lafleur, P., and Roulet, N. T.: Plant biomass and production and CO2 exchange in an ombrotrophic bog, J. Ecology, 90, 25–36, 2002.
Moore, T. R., and Basiliko, N.: Decomposition in boreal peatlands, in: Boreal Peatland Ecosystems, edited by: Wieder, R. K. and Vitt, D. H., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 125–143, 2006.
Muller, S., Richard, P. J. H., Guiot, J., Debeaulieu, J., and Fortin, D.: Postglacial climate in the St. Lawrence lowlands, southern Québec: pollen and lake-level evidence, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 193, 51–72, 2003b.
Muller, S. D., Richard, P. J. H., and Larouche, A. C.: Holocene development of a peatland (southern Québec): a spatio-temporal reconstruction based on pachymetry, sedimentology, microfossils and macrofossils, Holocene, 13, 49–664, 2003a.
Murphy, M. T.: Getting to the root of the matter: variations in vascular root biomass and production in peatlands and responses to global change, PhD Thesis, McGill University, Montréal, Canada, 2009.
Murphy, M. T., McKinley, A., and Moore, T. R.: Variations in above- and below-ground vascular plant biomass and water table on a temperature ombrotrophic peatland, Botany, 87, 845–853, 2009.
Nilsson, M., Sagerfors, J., Buffam, I., Laudon, H., Eriksson, T., Grelle, A., Klemedtsson, L., Weslien, P., and Lindroth, A.: Contemporary carbon accumulation in a boreal oligotrophic minerogenic mire – a significant sink after accounting for all C-fluxes, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2317–2332, 2008.
Paavilainen, E. and Päivänen, J.: Peatland Forestry: Ecology and Principles, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 248 pp., 1995.
Pastor, J., Peckham, B., Bridgham, S., Weltzin, J., and Chen, J.: Plant community dynamics, nutrient cycling, and alternative stable equilibria in peatlands, Am. Nat., 160, 553–568, 2002.
Pedersen, A.: Growth measurements of five Sphagnum species in South Norway, Norwegian J. Botany, 22, 277–284, 1975.
Reader, R. J. and Stewart, J. M.: The relationship between net primary production and accumulation for a peatland in southeastern Manitoba, Ecology, 53, 1024–1037, 1972.
Rietkerk, M., Dekker, S. C., Wassen, M. J., Verkroost, A. W. M., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: A putative mechanism for bog patterning, Am. Nat., 163, 699–708, 2004.
Riutta, T., Laine, J., and Tuittila, E.-S.: Sensitivity of CO2 exchange of fen ecosystem components to water level variation, Ecosystems, 10, 718–733, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-007-9046-7, 2007.
Robinson, S. D. and Moore, T. R.: The influence of permafrost and fire upon carbon accumulation in high boreal peatlands, Northwest Territories, Canada, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 32, 155–166, 2000.
Roulet, N. T., Lafleur, P. M., Richard, P. J. H., Moore, T. R., Humphreys, E. R., and Bubier, J. L.: Contemporary carbon balance and late Holocene carbon accumulation in a northern peatland, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 397–411, 2007.
Rydin, H.: Mechanism of interactions among Sphagnum species along water-level gradients, Adv. Bryo., 5, 153–185, 1993.
Rydin, H. and Jeglum, J. K.: The Biology of Peatlands, Oxford University Press, Oxford, England, 2006.
Salonen, V.: Relationship between the seed rain and the establishment of vegetation in two areas abandoned after peat harvesting, Holarctic Ecol., 10, 171–174, 1987.
Stuiver, M. and Reimer, P. J.: Extended 14C database and revised CALIB radiocarbon calibration program, Radiocarbon, 35, 215–230, 1993.
Talbot, J.: Drainage as a model for long term climate change effect on vegetation dynamics and carbon cycling in boreal peatlands, PhD, Geography, McGill University, 2009.
Tallis, J. H.: Changes in wetland communities, in: Ecosystems of the World 4A, Mires: Swamp, Bog, Fen and Moor, edited by: Gore, A. J. P., Amsterdam, Elsevier, 311–347, 1983.
Troels-Smith, J.: Characterization of unconsolidated sediments, Danmarks Geologiske Undersøgelse, ser. IV 3: 1–73, 1955.
Turetsky, M., Wieder, K., Halsey, L., and Vitt, D.: Current disturbance and the diminishing peatland carbon sink, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 11, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014000, 2002b.
Turetsky, M. R, Wieder, R. K., and Vitt, D. H.: Boreal peatland C fluxes under varying permafrost regimes, Soil Biol. Biochem., 34, 907–912, 2002a.
Turetsky, M. R.: The role of bryophytes in carbon and nitrogen cycling, Bryologist, 106, 395–409, 2003.
Turunen, J., Roulet, N. T., Moore, T. R., and Richard, P. J. H.: Nitrogen deposition and increased carbon accumulation in ombrotrophic peatlands in eastern Canada, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, GB3002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002154, 2004.
Turunen, J., Tomppo, E., Tolonen, K., and Reinikainen, A.: Estimating carbon accumulation rates of undrained mires in Finland – application to boreal and subarctic regions, The Holocene, 12, 69–80, 2002.
Turunen, J.: Past and present carbon accumulation in undisturbed boreal and subarctic mires: a review, Suo, 54, 15–28, 2003.
Van Wijk, W. R.: Physics of Plant Environment, North-Holland Publ., Amsterdam, 382 pp., 1966.
Walker, D.: Direction and rate in some British postglacial hydroseres, Studies in the Vegetation History of the British Isles, edited by: Walker, D. and West, R. G., 117–139, Cambridge University Press, 1970.
Walmsley, M. E.: Physical and chemical properties of peat, 82–129 in Muskeg and the Northern Environment in Canada, edited by: Radforth, N. W. and Brawner, C. O., Univ. Toronto Press, Toronto, Canada, 1977.
Wang, Y., Roulet, N. T., Frolking, S., and Mysak, L. A.: The importance of Northern Peatlands in global carbon systems during the Holocene, Clim. Past, 5, 683–693, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-683-2009, 2009.
Wania, R., Ross, I., Prentice, I.C.: Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 2. Evaluation and sensitivity of vegetation and carbon cycle processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB3015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003413, 2009.
Wieder, R. K.: Primary production in boreal peatlands, 145–164 in Boreal Peatland Ecosystems, edited by: Wieder, R. K., and Vitt, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2006.
Yu, Z. C., Turetsky, M. R, Campbell, I. D., and Vitt, D. H.: Understanding Holocene peat accumulation pattern of continental fens in western Canada, Can. J. Botany, 81, 267–282, 2003.
Zoltai, S. C., Morrissey, L. A., Livingston, G. P., and de Groot, W. J.: Effects of fire on carbon cycling in North American boreal peatlands, Environ. Res., 6, 13–24, 1998.
Zoltai, S. C., Siltanen, R. M., and Johnson, J. D.: A wetland database for the western boreal, subarctic, and arctic regions of Canada, Northern Forestry Centre. Information Report NOR- X-368, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, 2000.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint