Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Ulrich Cubasch
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Christopher Kadow
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forest cover changes primarily affect the global climate system by altering the energy and water balance on the surface. This study explores how large-scale deforestation impacts drought across diverse climate zones and time scales. Results reveal drier conditions in tropics but wetter climates in arid regions post-deforestation. Minimal impact observed in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term. These insights enhance understanding of vegetation-climate dynamics.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 321–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are very likely to affect drought condition. We use a set of statistical models to explore the relationship between forest cover change and drought change in different timescales and climate zones. We find that the influence of forest cover on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Forest cover also could modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought.
Johannes Meuer, Laurens M. Bouwer, Frank Kaspar, Roman Lehmann, Wolfgang Karl, Thomas Ludwig, and Christopher Kadow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study focuses on filling in missing precipitation data using an advanced neural network model. Traditional methods for estimating missing climate information often struggle in large regions where data is scarce. Our solution, which incorporates recent advances in machine learning, captures the intricate patterns of precipitation over time, especially during extreme weather events. Our model shows good performance in reconstructing large regions of missing rainfall radar data.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, Chunping Tan, Xia Zhang, Francesco Cherubini, and Henning W. Rust
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1270, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Forest cover changes primarily affect the global climate system by altering the energy and water balance on the surface. This study explores how large-scale deforestation impacts drought across diverse climate zones and time scales. Results reveal drier conditions in tropics but wetter climates in arid regions post-deforestation. Minimal impact observed in temperate zones. Long-term drought is more affected than short-term. These insights enhance understanding of vegetation-climate dynamics.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Yan Li, Bo Huang, and Henning W. Rust
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 321–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-321-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The inconsistent changes in temperature and precipitation induced by forest cover change are very likely to affect drought condition. We use a set of statistical models to explore the relationship between forest cover change and drought change in different timescales and climate zones. We find that the influence of forest cover on droughts varies under different precipitation and temperature quantiles. Forest cover also could modulate the impacts of precipitation and temperature on drought.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 19, 835–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation distribution is uneven in monsoon and westerlies-dominated subregions of Asia. Multi-model data from PMIP3 and CMIP5 show a distinct inverse pattern of climatological conditions after NHVAI, with an intensified aridity in the relatively wettest area but a weakened aridity in the relatively driest area of the AMR. The hydrological impacts relate to the dynamical response of the climate system to the radiative effect of volcanic aerosol and the subsequent local physical feedbacks.
Ulrich Cubasch
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 70, 225–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-70-225-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Flohn's publication discusses the state of knowledge of the Pleistocene climate from the perspective of atmospheric sciences, which in 1963 was mainly based on geological and geomorphological evidence. The paper discusses to what extent Flohn's conclusions are still valid and how new findings, methods, and ideas have added to our present-day picture of the Pleistocene climate.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Emmanuele Russo, Silje Lund Sørland, Ingo Kirchner, Martijn Schaap, Christoph C. Raible, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5779–5797, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5779-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The parameter space of the COSMO-CLM RCM is investigated for the Central Asia CORDEX domain using a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) with different parameter values. Results show that only a subset of model parameters presents relevant changes in model performance and these changes depend on the considered region and variable: objective calibration methods are highly necessary in this case. Additionally, the results suggest the need for calibrating an RCM when targeting different domains.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Bijan Fallah, Emmanuele Russo, Walter Acevedo, Achille Mauri, Nico Becker, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 14, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
Stella Babian, Jens Grieger, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6749–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most prominent asymmetric features of the southern hemispheric (SH) circulation is the split jet over Australia and New Zealand in austral winter. We propose a new, hemispherical index that is based on the principal components (PCs) of the zonal wind field for the SH winter. The new PC-based index (PSI) suggests that the SH split jet is strongly associated with the AAO. Furthermore, both flavors of ENSO and the PSA-1 pattern produce favorable conditions for a SH split event.
Walter Acevedo, Bijan Fallah, Sebastian Reich, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 13, 545–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-545-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to contribute to the present knowledge of paleo data assimilation techniques by addressing the following two questions: (i) Does the off-line regime naturally appear for the assimilation of tree-ring-width records into an AGCM? (ii) Is the fuzzy logic (FL)-based extension of a forward model still useful to improve the performance of a time-averaged ensemble Kalman filter technique when a climate model is used?
Emmanuele Russo and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 12, 1645–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1645-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a RCM for three different goals.
Proposing a model configuration suitable for paleoclimate studies; evaluating the added value of a regional climate model for paleoclimate studies; investigating temperature evolution of the European continent during mid-to-late Holocene.
Results suggest that the RCM seems to produce results in better agreement with reconstructions than its driving GCM. Simulated temperature evolution seems to be too sensitive to changes in insolation.
B. Fallah and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past, 11, 253–263, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-253-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Our results show that state-of-the-art climate model simulations are able to capture historically recorded Asian monsoon failures during the past millennium at the right time and with a comparable spatial distribution. During the Little Ice Age, both model and proxy reconstructions point to fewer monsoon failures. The results suggest an influential impact of volcanic eruptions on the atmosphere-ocean interactions throughout the past millennium.
S. Polanski, B. Fallah, S. Prasad, and U. Cubasch
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-9-703-2013, 2013
Preprint withdrawn
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate prediction
Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing
Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe
Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations
Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogs
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece
Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system
Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change
Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts
A non-stationary extreme-value approach for climate projection ensembles: application to snow loads in the French Alps
Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100
Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble
Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
Is time a variable like the others in multivariate statistical downscaling and bias correction?
Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycle
Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point
Bayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasets
Comparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climate
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
The impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in Africa
Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse
Intensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st century
Winter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern Ontario
Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective
Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake
A mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraints
Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions
Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change
Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal
Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties
Return levels of temperature extremes in southern Pakistan
On the meaning of independence in climate science
Minimal change of thermal continentality in Slovakia within the period 1961–2013
Saïd Qasmi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 685–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new statistical method combining climate models and observations confirms the anthropogenic role in the cooling of the North Atlantic warming hole. Aerosols increase sea surface temperature (SST), while greenhouse gases contribute to the cooling over the 1870–2020 period. The method is able to reduce model uncertainty in the SST projections by 65% in the short term and up to 50% in the long term, excluding previous unlikely temperature increase scenarios.
Tamzin E. Palmer, Carol F. McSweeney, Ben B. B. Booth, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Paolo Davini, Lukas Brunner, Leonard Borchert, and Matthew B. Menary
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 457–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We carry out an assessment of an ensemble of general climate models (CMIP6) based on the ability of the models to represent the key physical processes that are important for representing European climate. Filtering the models with the assessment leads to more models with less global warming being removed, and this shifts the lower part of the projected temperature range towards greater warming. This is in contrast to the affect of weighting the ensemble using global temperature trends.
Chris Huntingford, Peter M. Cox, Mark S. Williamson, Joseph J. Clarke, and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 433–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints (ECs) reduce the spread of projections between climate models. ECs estimate changes to climate features impacting adaptation policy, and with this high profile, the method is under scrutiny. Asking
What is an EC?, we suggest they are often the discovery of parameters that characterise hidden large-scale equations that climate models solve implicitly. We present this conceptually via two examples. Our analysis implies possible new paths to link ECs and physical processes.
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost thaws and releases carbon (C) as the Arctic warms. Most earth system models (ESMs) have poor estimates of C stored now, so their future C losses are much lower than using the permafrost C model with climate inputs from six ESMs. Bias-corrected soil temperatures and plant productivity plus geoengineering lowering global temperatures from a no-mitigation baseline scenario to a moderate emissions level keep C in the soil worth about USD 0–70 (mean 20) trillion in climate damages by 2100.
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1611-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
Iason Markantonis, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, and Ioannis Kioutsioukis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1491–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work focuses on the study of daily wet–cold compound events in Greece in the period November–April. We firstly study the historic period 1980–2004 in which we validate projection models with observations. Then we compare the model results with future period 2025–2049 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aim of the study is to calculate the probability of the events and to locate the areas where those are higher and how the probabilities will change at the future.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1437-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1377-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1543-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even global-scale climate tipping. Sequential shifts of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean have been recorded in proxy archives of past climate change. Based on this we propose a conceptual model for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial. Here, rate-induced tipping enables tipping cascades in systems with relatively weak coupling. An early warning signal is proposed that may detect such a tipping.
Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-709-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate sensitivityis a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-545-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample
imperfect modeltest, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-995-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-347-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-319-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses climate projections over West Africa to investigate the future changes in different aspects of its hydrological cycle. Over the 21st century, temperatures are expected to increase at a faster rate (+0.5 °C per decade) than the global average (+0.3 °C per decade), leading to an intensification of the hydrological cycle on average of +11 % per °C over the Sahel (more intense precipitation and longer dry spells) and +3 % per °C over the Guinea Coast (more intense precipitation).
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-301-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-267-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its precipitation-related teleconnections in the CESM-LE. To avoid the disadvantages of the subjective choices of traditional temporal methods, we use an ensemble-based snapshot framework providing instantaneous quantities computed over the ensemble dimension of the simulation. We find that ENSO teleconnections undergo considerable changes, and the ENSO amplitude remarkably increases by 2100.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-999-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-701-2018, 2018
Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-427-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A novel method based on
present–futurerelationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-197-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-187-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135–151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-135-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1263-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Jozef Vilček, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Vido, Paulína Nalevanková, Radoslav Kandrík, and Jana Škvareninová
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 735–744, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-735-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Thermal continentality plays an important role not only in the basic characterisation of the climate in particular regions but also in the phytogeographic distribution of plants and ecosystem formation. Due to ongoing climate change, questions surrounding the changes of thermal continentality are very relevant. Our results show that the continentality of Slovakia increased in the period 1961 to 2013; however, this trend is not significant.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak,
J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind,
J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation
Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J.
Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:tvgpcp>2.0.co;2, 2003.
Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L.,
Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon
emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration
pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl046270, 2011.
Barnett, T. P. and Schlesinger, M. E.: Detecting Changes in Global Climate
Induced by Greenhouse Gases, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 92, 14772–14780,
https://doi.org/10.1029/JD092iD12p14772, 1987.
Barnston, A. G., Li, S. H., Mason, S. J., DeWitt, D. G., Goddard, L., and
Gong, X. F.: Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI's Seasonal Climate
Forecasts, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 493–520, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jamc2325.1, 2010.
Choi, J., Son, S. W., Ham, Y. G., Lee, J. Y., and Kim, H. M.:
Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in
the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments, J. Climate, 29, 1511–1527,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0182.1, 2016.
Choudhury, D., Sharma, A., Sivakumar, B., Sen Gupta, A., and Mehrotra, R.:
On the predictability of SSTA indices from CMIP5 decadal experiments,
Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 074013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074013, 2015.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P.,
Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P.,
Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N.,
Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S.
B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kohler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park,
B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J. N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828,
2011.
Delworth, T. L., Broccoli, A. J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R. J., Balaji, V.,
Beesley, J. A., Cooke, W. F., Dixon, K. W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K. A.,
Durachta, J. W., Findell, K. L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C.
T., Griffies, S. M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M. J., Held, I. M., Hemler, R.
S., Horowitz, L. W., Klein, S. A., Knutson, T. R., Kushner, P. J.,
Langenhorst, A. R., Lee, H. C., Lin, S. J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S. L., Milly,
P. C. D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M. D., Shevliakova, E.,
Sirutis, J. J., Spelman, M. J., Stern, W. F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T.,
Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R.: GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate
models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 19,
643–674, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli3629.1, 2006.
Ding, Y. H.: Monsoons over China, Kluwer Academic Publisher,
Dordrecht/Boston/London, 419 pp., 1994.
Ding, Y. H.: Seasonal march of the East-Asian summer monsoon, in: East Asian
Monsoon, edited by: Chang, C.-P., World Scientific, Singapore, 560, 2004.
Ding, Y. H. and Chan, J. C. L.: The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview,
Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 117–142, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z, 2005.
Drosdowsky, W. and Zhang, H.: Verification of Spatial Fields, in: Forecast
Verification: A Practitioner's Guide, in: Atmospheric Science, edited by:
Jolliffe, L. T. and Stephenson, D. B., John Wiley & Sons Ltd, England,
128–129, 2003.
Goddard, L., Mason, S. J., Zebiak, S. E., Ropelewski, C. F., Basher, R., and
Cane, M. A.: Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate
predictions, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1111–1152, doi;10.1002/joc.636, 2001.
Huang, B. Y., Banzon, V. F., Freeman, E., Lawrimore, J., Liu, W., Peterson,
T. C., Smith, T. M., Thorne, P. W., Woodruff, S. D., and Zhang, H. M.:
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I:
Upgrades and Intercomparisons, J. Climate, 28, 911–930,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00006.1, 2015.
Jiang, X. W., Yang, S., Li, Y. Q., Kumar, A., Liu, X. W., Zuo, Z. Y., and
Jha, B.: Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in
the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2, J. Climate, 26, 3708–3727,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00437.1, 2013.
Jin, E. K., Kinter, J. L., Wang, B., Park, C. K., Kang, I. S., Kirtman, B.
P., Kug, J. S., Kumar, A., Luo, J. J., Schemm, J., Shukla, J., and Yamagata,
T.: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere
models, Clim. Dynam., 31, 647–664, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3, 2008.
Kang, I.-S. and Shukla, J.: Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability
of the monsoon, in: The Asian Monsoon, edited by: Wang, B., Springer Berlin
Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 585–612, 2006.
Kang, I. S. and Yoo, J. H.: Examination of multi-model ensemble seasonal
prediction methods using a simple climate system, Clim. Dynam., 26, 285–294,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0074-8, 2006.
Kim, H. J., Wang, B., and Ding, Q. H.: The Global Monsoon Variability
Simulated by CMIP3 Coupled Climate Models, J. Climate, 21, 5271–5294,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2041.1, 2008.
Kim, H. J., Takata, K., Wang, B., Watanabe, M., Kimoto, M., Yokohata, T.,
and Yasunari, T.: Global Monsoon, El Nino, and Their Interannual Linkage
Simulated by MIROC5 and the CMIP3 CGCMs, J. Climate, 24, 5604–5618,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4132.1, 2011.
Kim, H. M., Webster, P. J., Curry, J. A., and Toma, V. E.: Asian summer
monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal
forecasts, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2975–2991, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1470-5, 2012.
Kirtman, B. and Pirani, A.: The State of the Art of Seasonal Prediction
Outcomes and Recommendations from the First World Climate Research Program
Workshop on Seasonal Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 455–458,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008bams2707.1, 2009.
Kug, J. S., Kang, I. S., and Choi, D. H.: Seasonal climate predictability
with Tier-one and Tier-two prediction systems, Clim. Dynam., 31, 403–416,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0264-7, 2008.
Lee, J.-Y., Wang, B., Kang, I. S., Shukla, J., Kumar, A., Kug, J. S.,
Schemm, J. K. E., Luo, J. J., Yamagata, T., Fu, X., Alves, O., Stern, B.,
Rosati, T., and Park, C. K.: How are seasonal prediction skills related to
models' performance on mean state and annual cycle?, Clim. Dynam., 35, 267–283,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0857-4, 2010.
Luo, J.-J., Masson, S., Behera, S. K., and Yamagata, T.: Extended ENSO
Predictions Using a Fully Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, J. Climate, 21,
84–93, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1412.1, 2008.
Magnusson, L., Alonso-Balmaseda, M., Corti, S., Molteni, F., and Stockdale,
T.: Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in
presence of systematic model errors, Clim. Dynam., 41, 2393–2409,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1599-2, 2013.
Matei, D., Pohlmann, H., Jungclaus, J., Muller, W., Haak, H., and Marotzke,
J.: Two Tales of Initializing Decadal Climate Prediction Experiments with
the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model, J. Climate, 25, 8502–8523, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00633.1,
2012.
Meehl, G. A. and Teng, H. Y.: Case studies for initialized decadal
hindcasts and predictions for the Pacific region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39,
L22705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053423, 2012.
Meehl, G., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J.,
Stouffer, R., and Taylor, K.: The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era
in climate change research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383–1394, 2007.
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Murphy, J., Stouffer, R. J., Boer, G.,
Danabasoglu, G., Dixon, K., Giorgetta, M. A., Greene, A. M., Hawkins, E.,
Hegerl, G., Karoly, D., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Navarra,
A., Pulwarty, R., Smith, D., Stammer, D., and Stockdale, T.: DECADAL
PREDICTION Can It Be Skillful?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467–1485,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009bams2778.1, 2009.
Meehl, G. A., Goddard, L., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Branstator, G., Cassou,
C., Corti, S., Danabasoglu, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A.,
Kimoto, M., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A.,
Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Rosati, T., Schneider, E., Smith, D., Sutton,
R., Teng, H. Y., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., and Yeager, S.: DECADAL
CLIMATE PREDICTION An Update from the Trenches, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95,
243–267, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-12-00241.1, 2014.
Mitchell, J. F. B., Karoly, D. J., Hegerl, G. C., Zwiers, F. W., Allen, M.
R., and Marengo, J.: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes,
in: Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change., edited by: Houghton, J. T., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der
Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge
University Press, New York, 470, 2001.
Seo, K. H., Son, J. H., Lee, J. Y., and Park, H. S.: Northern East Asian
Monsoon Precipitation Revealed by Airmass Variability and Its Prediction, J.
Climate, 28, 6221–6233, https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00526.1, 2015.
Smith, D. M., Eade, R., and Pohlmann, H.: A comparison of full-field and
anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction, Clim. Dynam.,
41, 3325–3338, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2, 2013.
Sperber, K. R., Brankovic, C., Deque, M., Frederiksen, C. S., Graham, R.,
Kitoh, A., Kobayashi, C., Palmer, T., Puri, K., Tennant, W., and Volodin,
E.: Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon, Mon.
Weather Rev., 129, 2226–2248,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2226:Dspota>2.0.Co;2, 2001.
Sperber, K., Annamalai, H., Kang, I. S., Kitoh, A., Moise, A., Turner, A.,
Wang, B., and Zhou, T.: The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of
CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century, Clim. Dynam., 41,
2711–2744, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6, 2013.
Tao, S. Y. and Chen, L. X.: A review of recent research on the East Asian
summer monsoon in China, in: Monsoon Meterology, edited by: Chang, C.-P.
and Krishnamurti, T. N., Oxford University Press, Oxford, 60–92, 1987.
Tatebe, H., Ishii, M., Mochizuki, T., Chikamoto, Y., Sakamoto, T. T.,
Komuro, Y., Mori, M., Yasunaka, S., Watanabe, M., Ogochi, K., Suzuki, T.,
Nishimura, T., and Kimoto, M.: The Initialization of the MIROC Climate
Models with Hydrographic Data Assimilation for Decadal Prediction, J.
Meteorol. Soc. Jpn, 90a, 275–294, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-A14, 2012.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tompkins, A. M., Ortiz De Zarate, M. I., Saurral, R. I., Vera, C., Saulo,
C., Merryfield, W. J., Sigmond, M., Lee, W. S., Baehr, J., Braun, A.,
Butler, A., Deque, M., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Gordon, M., Scaife, A. A.,
Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Ose, T., Kirtman, B., Kumar, A., Muller, W. A.,
Pirani, A., Stockdale, T., Rixen, M., and Yasuda, T.: The Climate-System
Historical Forecast Project: Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast
Ensembles from Centers around the Globe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98,
2293–2302, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-16-0209.1, 2017.
Vitart, F., Ardilouze, C., Bonet, A., Brookshaw, A., Chen, M., Codorean, C.,
Deque, M., Ferranti, L., Fucile, E., Fuentes, M., Hendon, H., Hodgson, J.,
Kang, H. S., Kumar, A., Lin, H., Liu, G., Liu, X., Malguzzi, P., Mallas, I.,
Manoussakis, M., Mastrangelo, D., MacLachlan, C., McLean, P., Minami, A.,
Mladek, R., Nakazawa, T., Najm, S., Nie, Y., Rixen, M., Robertson, A. W.,
Ruti, P., Sun, C., Takaya, Y., Tolstykh, M., Venuti, F., Waliser, D.,
Woolnough, S., Wu, T., Won, D. J., Xiao, H., Zaripov, R., and Zhang, L.: The
Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2s) Prediction Project Database, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 98, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-D-16-0017.1, 2017.
Wang, B.: The Asian Monsoon, Springer Science & Business Media, Praxis,
New York, NY, USA, 2006.
Wang, B. and Fan, Z.: Choice of south Asian summer monsoon indices, B. Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 80, 629–638,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0629:Cosasm>2.0.Co;2, 1999.
Wang, B. and Xie, X.: Low-Frequency Equatorial Waves in Vertically Sheared
Zonal Flow. Part I: Stable Waves, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 449–467,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<0449:lfewiv>2.0.co;2, 1996.
Wang, B., Wu, R. G., and Fu, X. H.: Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how
does ENSO affect East Asian climate?, J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536, 2000.
Wang, B., Wu, R., and Li, T.: Atmosphere–Warm Ocean Interaction and Its
Impacts on Asian–Australian Monsoon Variation*, J. Climate, 16, 1195–1211,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1195:aoiaii>2.0.co;2, 2003.
Wang, B., Kang, I.-S., and Lee, J.-Y.: Ensemble Simulations of
Asian–Australian Monsoon Variability by 11 AGCMs*, J. Climate, 17, 803–818,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0803:esoamv>2.0.co;2, 2004.
Wang, B., Ding, Q. H., Fu, X. H., Kang, I. S., Jin, K., Shukla, J., and
Doblas-Reyes, F.: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of
summer monsoon rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl022734,
2005.
Wang, B., Lee, J.-Y., Kang, I.-S., Shukla, J., Park, C. K., Kumar, A.,
Schemm, J., Cocke, S., Kug, J. S., Luo, J. J., Zhou, T., Wang, B., Fu, X.,
Yun, W. T., Alves, O., Jin, E. K., Kinter, J., Kirtman, B., Krishnamurti,
T., Lau, N. C., Lau, W., Liu, P., Pegion, P., Rosati, T., Schubert, S.,
Stern, W., Suarez, M., and Yamagata, T.: Advance and prospectus of seasonal
prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective
seasonal prediction (1980–2004), Clim. Dynam., 33, 93–117,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0, 2008a.
Wang, B., Wu, Z. W., Li, J. P., Liu, J., Chang, C. P., Ding, Y. H., and Wu,
G. X.: How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, J. Climate,
21, 4449–4463, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2183.1, 2008b.
Wang, B., Xiang, B., and Lee, J. Y.: Subtropical high predictability
establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 2718–2722, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110, 2013.
Wang, B., Lee, J. Y., and Xiang, B. Q.: Asian summer monsoon rainfall
predictability: a predictable mode analysis, Clim. Dynam., 44, 61–74,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2218-1, 2015.
Wu, R. G., Hu, Z. Z., and Kirtman, B. P.: Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall
anomalies in East Asia, J. Climate, 16, 3742–3758,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3742:Eoerai>2.0.Co;2, 2003.
Wu, T. W., Song, L. C., Li, W. P., Wang, Z. Z., Zhang, H., Xin, X. G.,
Zhang, Y. W., Zhang, L., Li, J. L., Wu, F. H., Liu, Y. M., Zhang, F., Shi,
X. L., Chu, M., Zhang, J., Fang, Y. J., Wang, F., Lu, Y. X., Liu, X. W.,
Wei, M., Liu, Q. X., Zhou, W. Y., Dong, M., Zhao, Q. G., Ji, J. J., Li, L.,
and Zhou, M. Y.: An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and
Application for Climate Change Studies, J. Meteorol. Res.-Proc., 28, 34–56,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3041-7, 2014.
Wu, Z. W., Wang, B., Li, J. P., and Jin, F. F.: An empirical seasonal
prediction model of the east Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D18120, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd011733, 2009.
Xiang, B. Q., Yu, W. D., Li, T., and Wang, B.: The critical role of the
boreal summer mean state in the development of the IOD, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
38, L02710, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl045851, 2011.
Xiang, B. Q., Wang, B., Yu, W., and Xu, S.: How can anomalous western North
Pacific Subtropical High intensify in late summer?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40,
2349–2354, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50431, 2013.
Yang, S., Zhang, Z. Q., Kousky, V. E., Higgins, R. W., Yoo, S. H., Liang, J.
Y., and Fan, Y.: Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer
monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System, J. Climate, 21, 3755–3775,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli1961.1, 2008.
Yim, S. Y., Wang, B., and Xing, W.: Prediction of early summer rainfall over
South China by a physical-empirical model, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1883–1891,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2014-3, 2014.
Zhou, T. J. and Yu, R. C.: Atmospheric water vapor transport associated
with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
110, D08104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005413, 2005.
Zhou, T. J., Wu, B., and Wang, B.: How Well Do Atmospheric General Circulation
Models Capture the Leading Modes of the Interannual Variability of the
Asian–Australian Monsoon?, J. Climate, 22, 1159–1173, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2245.1,
2009.
Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint