Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

Huang, Bo; Cubasch, Ulrich; Kadow, Christopher

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-985-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 3

Research article

|

23 Jul 2018

Research article |

| 23 Jul 2018

Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow

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Final revised paper (published on 23 Jul 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 31 May 2017)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Commands on “Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models (esd-2017-51)” by Huang et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Jun 2017
- AC1: 'response to Reviewer #1', Bo Huang, 17 Jul 2017
  - RC2: 'Commands on “Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models (esd-2017-51)” by Huang et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Aug 2017
RC4: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Sep 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 Sep 2017) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Bo Huang on behalf of the Authors (16 Oct 2017) Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (25 Nov 2017) by Valerio Lucarini

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (02 Dec 2017)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (15 Dec 2017)

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Dec 2017) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Bo Huang on behalf of the Authors (05 Jan 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Feb 2018) by Valerio Lucarini

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Mar 2018)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (11 Jun 2018)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (28 Jun 2018) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Bo Huang on behalf of the Authors (02 Jul 2018) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (11 Jul 2018) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Bo Huang on behalf of the Authors (12 Jul 2018)

Short summary

We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.