Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, 2017
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, 2017

Research article 21 Mar 2017

Research article | 21 Mar 2017

On the meaning of independence in climate science

James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves

Related authors

Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872,,, 2020
Short summary
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735,,, 2020
Short summary
What could we learn about climate sensitivity from variability in the surface temperature record?
James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Thorsten Mauritsen, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 709–719,,, 2020
Short summary
Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverse
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356,,, 2020
Short summary
Effectiveness and limitations of parameter tuning in reducing biases of top-of-atmosphere radiation and clouds in MIROC version 5
Tomoo Ogura, Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D. Annan, Julia C. Hargreaves, Naoto Ushigami, Kazuya Hirota, Yu Someya, Youichi Kamae, Hiroaki Tatebe, and Masahide Kimoto
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4647–4664,,, 2017
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258,,, 2020
Short summary
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132,,, 2020
Short summary
Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049,,, 2020
Short summary
Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012,,, 2020
Short summary
Assessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,,, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary

Cited articles

Abramowitz, G. and Gupta, H.: Toward a model space and model independence metric, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05705,, 2008.
Annan, J. D.: Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity, Current Climate Change Reports, 1–5, 2015.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06704,, 2006.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703,, 2010.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity, Climatic Change, 104, 423–436, 2011a.
Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Final-revised paper