Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017

Research article 21 Mar 2017

Research article | 21 Mar 2017

On the meaning of independence in climate science

James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G. and Gupta, H.: Toward a model space and model independence metric, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L05705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032834, 2008.
Annan, J. D.: Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity, Current Climate Change Reports, 1–5, 2015.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025259, 2006.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: Reliability of the CMIP3 ensemble, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041994, 2010.
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity, Climatic Change, 104, 423–436, 2011a.
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Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
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