Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Mar 2017
Research article |
| 21 Mar 2017
On the meaning of independence in climate science
James D. Annan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk, The Old Chapel, Albert Hill, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
Julia C. Hargreaves
BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk, The Old Chapel, Albert Hill, Settle, BD24 9HE, UK
Viewed
Total article views: 5,673 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Aug 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,887 | 1,582 | 204 | 5,673 | 192 | 204 |
- HTML: 3,887
- PDF: 1,582
- XML: 204
- Total: 5,673
- BibTeX: 192
- EndNote: 204
Total article views: 4,041 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 21 Mar 2017)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,742 | 1,122 | 177 | 4,041 | 179 | 179 |
- HTML: 2,742
- PDF: 1,122
- XML: 177
- Total: 4,041
- BibTeX: 179
- EndNote: 179
Total article views: 1,632 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Aug 2016)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,145 | 460 | 27 | 1,632 | 13 | 25 |
- HTML: 1,145
- PDF: 460
- XML: 27
- Total: 1,632
- BibTeX: 13
- EndNote: 25
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 5,673 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 5,570 with geography defined
and 103 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 4,041 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,953 with geography defined
and 88 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,632 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,617 with geography defined
and 15 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections: Application to the AMOC and temperature time series R. Olson et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0214535
- Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle L. Teckentrup et al. 10.5194/esd-14-549-2023
- Probabilistic projections of El Niño Southern Oscillation properties accounting for model dependence and skill R. Olson et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-26513-3
- Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons R. O’Loughlin 10.1007/s13194-023-00522-z
- A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum J. Annan et al. 10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022
- Identifying climate models based on their daily output using machine learning L. Brunner & S. Sippel 10.1017/eds.2023.23
- Future Changes to El Niño–Southern Oscillation Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections S. Perry et al. 10.1002/2017GL074509
- Ensemble optimisation, multiple constraints and overconfidence: a case study with future Australian precipitation change N. Herger et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04690-8
- Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties N. Herger et al. 10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
- Intercomparison of daily precipitation persistence in multiple global observations and climate models H. Moon et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4169
- Climate model pluralism beyond dynamical ensembles F. Mazzocchi & A. Pasini 10.1002/wcc.477
- Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles B. Christiansen 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0186.1
- Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers G. Schmidt et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017
- Accuracy in the prediction of disease epidemics when ensembling simple but highly correlated models D. Shah et al. 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008831
- Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting L. Brunner et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f
- Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco S. Balhane et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05910-w
- Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements J. Jebeile & M. Crucifix 10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.03.001
- A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP M. Renoult et al. 10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
- Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru E. Pino-Vargas et al. 10.3390/hydrology9010010
- ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing G. Abramowitz et al. 10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
- A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models R. Olson et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
- Using multi‐model ensembles of CMIP5 global climate models to reproduce observed monthly rainfall and temperature with machine learning methods in Australia B. Wang et al. 10.1002/joc.5705
- Common Error Patterns in the Regional Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by the CMIP Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Brands 10.1029/2022GL101446
- Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity J. Boé 10.1002/2017GL076829
- Similarities within a multi-model ensemble: functional data analysis framework E. Holtanová et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-735-2019
- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100334
- The Radiative Forcing of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in Liquid Clouds: Wrestling and Embracing Uncertainty J. Mülmenstädt & G. Feingold 10.1007/s40641-018-0089-y
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
- On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2022JD036675
- Future exposure of rainfall and temperature extremes to the most populous island of Indonesia: A projection based on CORDEX simulation V. Hendrawan et al. 10.1002/joc.8537
- Confirming (climate) change: a dynamical account of model evaluation S. Kawamleh 10.1007/s11229-022-03659-1
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023
- Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports C. Dethier 10.3998/ergo.4637
- A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence R. Knutti et al. 10.1002/2016GL072012
35 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Accounting for skill in trend, variability, and autocorrelation facilitates better multi-model projections: Application to the AMOC and temperature time series R. Olson et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0214535
- Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle L. Teckentrup et al. 10.5194/esd-14-549-2023
- Probabilistic projections of El Niño Southern Oscillation properties accounting for model dependence and skill R. Olson et al. 10.1038/s41598-022-26513-3
- Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons R. O’Loughlin 10.1007/s13194-023-00522-z
- A new global surface temperature reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum J. Annan et al. 10.5194/cp-18-1883-2022
- Identifying climate models based on their daily output using machine learning L. Brunner & S. Sippel 10.1017/eds.2023.23
- Future Changes to El Niño–Southern Oscillation Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections S. Perry et al. 10.1002/2017GL074509
- Ensemble optimisation, multiple constraints and overconfidence: a case study with future Australian precipitation change N. Herger et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04690-8
- Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties N. Herger et al. 10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
- Intercomparison of daily precipitation persistence in multiple global observations and climate models H. Moon et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4169
- Climate model pluralism beyond dynamical ensembles F. Mazzocchi & A. Pasini 10.1002/wcc.477
- Understanding the Distribution of Multimodel Ensembles B. Christiansen 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0186.1
- Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers G. Schmidt et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017
- Accuracy in the prediction of disease epidemics when ensembling simple but highly correlated models D. Shah et al. 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008831
- Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting L. Brunner et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f
- Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation events from different weighted multi-model ensembles over the northern half of Morocco S. Balhane et al. 10.1007/s00382-021-05910-w
- Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements J. Jebeile & M. Crucifix 10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.03.001
- A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP M. Renoult et al. 10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020
- Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru E. Pino-Vargas et al. 10.3390/hydrology9010010
- ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing G. Abramowitz et al. 10.5194/esd-10-91-2019
- A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models R. Olson et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-10561-x
- Reduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independence L. Brunner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-995-2020
- Using multi‐model ensembles of CMIP5 global climate models to reproduce observed monthly rainfall and temperature with machine learning methods in Australia B. Wang et al. 10.1002/joc.5705
- Common Error Patterns in the Regional Atmospheric Circulation Simulated by the CMIP Multi‐Model Ensemble S. Brands 10.1029/2022GL101446
- Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity J. Boé 10.1002/2017GL076829
- Similarities within a multi-model ensemble: functional data analysis framework E. Holtanová et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-735-2019
- Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example A. Elshall et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100334
- The Radiative Forcing of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions in Liquid Clouds: Wrestling and Embracing Uncertainty J. Mülmenstädt & G. Feingold 10.1007/s40641-018-0089-y
- An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence S. Sherwood et al. 10.1029/2019RG000678
- An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/esd-11-807-2020
- On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback T. Andrews et al. 10.1029/2022JD036675
- Future exposure of rainfall and temperature extremes to the most populous island of Indonesia: A projection based on CORDEX simulation V. Hendrawan et al. 10.1002/joc.8537
- Confirming (climate) change: a dynamical account of model evaluation S. Kawamleh 10.1007/s11229-022-03659-1
- Climate model Selection by Independence, Performance, and Spread (ClimSIPS v1.0.1) for regional applications A. Merrifield et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4715-2023
- Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports C. Dethier 10.3998/ergo.4637
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Saved (preprint)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 Apr 2025
Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint