Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177–210, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177–210, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
Research article
16 Mar 2017
Research article | 16 Mar 2017

Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales

Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts

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Cited articles

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Alfaro, E. J., Gershunov, A., and Cayan, D.: Prediction of Summer Maximum and Minimum Temperature over the Central and Western United States: The Roles of Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperature, J. Climate, 19, 1407–1421, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3665.1, 2006.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., and Webb, M. J.: The dependence of radiative forcing and feedback on evolving patterns of surface temperature change in climate models, J. Climate, 28, 1630–1648, 2015.
Balmaseda, M. A., Trenberth, K. E., and Källén, E.: Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1754–1759, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382, 2013.
Bartsev, S. I., Belolipetskii, P. V., Degermendzhi, A. G., Ivanova, Y. D., Pochekutov, A. A., and Saltykov, M. Y.: Refocusing on the dynamics of the Earth's climate, Her. Russ. Acad. Sci., 86, 135–142, https://doi.org/10.1134/s1019331616020015, 2016.
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Short summary
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
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