Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales
Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Victoria 8001, Melbourne, Australia
James H. Ricketts
Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Victoria 8001, Melbourne, Australia
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Total article views: 6,849 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Tipping Points and Changes in Australian Climate and Extremes J. Frederiksen & S. Osbrough https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050073
- Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia S. Rauniyar & S. Power https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03562-9
- Applications of the scanning test of trend changes in regression coefficients to monthly temperature over China and Globe J. Jiang https://doi.org/10.3934/geosci.2024004
- Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world R. Bastiaansen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8
- Regime Changes in Atmospheric Moisture under Climate Change R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101577
- Identifying and Attributing Regime Shifts in Australian Fire Climates R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060121
- Variability and changes to the mean meridional circulation in isentropic coordinates C. Lucas et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05903-9
- Evidence and Explanation for the 2023 Global Warming Anomaly R. Jones https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121507
- Designing the Adaptive Landscape: Leapfrogging Stacked Vulnerabilities R. Roggema et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020158
- Recent Techniques in Determining the Effects of Climate Change on Depressive Patients: A Systematic Review N. Ab Kader et al. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1803401
- The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years S. Rauniyar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48877-w
- Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7040113
- Regime Change in Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Fluxes: Implications for Understanding Earth’s Energy Imbalance R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13060107
- Are the Regional Precipitation and Temperature Series Correlated? Case Study from Dobrogea, Romania A. Bărbulescu & F. Postolache https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050109
- Biosequestration of carbon dioxide using carbonic anhydrase from novel Streptomyces kunmingensis M. Sangeetha et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00203-022-02887-w
- Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013) C. Butler https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266
- Estimating future rainfall distributions in a changing climate for water resource planning: Victoria, Australia S. Rauniyar & S. Power https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06330-0
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Tipping Points and Changes in Australian Climate and Extremes J. Frederiksen & S. Osbrough https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050073
- Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia S. Rauniyar & S. Power https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03562-9
- Applications of the scanning test of trend changes in regression coefficients to monthly temperature over China and Globe J. Jiang https://doi.org/10.3934/geosci.2024004
- Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world R. Bastiaansen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8
- Regime Changes in Atmospheric Moisture under Climate Change R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101577
- Identifying and Attributing Regime Shifts in Australian Fire Climates R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060121
- Variability and changes to the mean meridional circulation in isentropic coordinates C. Lucas et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05903-9
- Evidence and Explanation for the 2023 Global Warming Anomaly R. Jones https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121507
- Designing the Adaptive Landscape: Leapfrogging Stacked Vulnerabilities R. Roggema et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020158
- Recent Techniques in Determining the Effects of Climate Change on Depressive Patients: A Systematic Review N. Ab Kader et al. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1803401
- The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years S. Rauniyar et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48877-w
- Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/fire7040113
- Regime Change in Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Fluxes: Implications for Understanding Earth’s Energy Imbalance R. Jones & J. Ricketts https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13060107
- Are the Regional Precipitation and Temperature Series Correlated? Case Study from Dobrogea, Romania A. Bărbulescu & F. Postolache https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050109
- Biosequestration of carbon dioxide using carbonic anhydrase from novel Streptomyces kunmingensis M. Sangeetha et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00203-022-02887-w
- Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013) C. Butler https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266
- Estimating future rainfall distributions in a changing climate for water resource planning: Victoria, Australia S. Rauniyar & S. Power https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06330-0
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 28 May 2026
Short summary
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change...
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