Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177–210, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 177–210, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-177-2017

Research article 16 Mar 2017

Research article | 16 Mar 2017

Reconciling the signal and noise of atmospheric warming on decadal timescales

Roger N. Jones and James H. Ricketts

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (06 Dec 2016) by Michel Crucifix
AR by Roger Jones on behalf of the Authors (23 Dec 2016)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Dec 2016) by Michel Crucifix
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Jan 2017)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by Editor) (03 Feb 2017) by Michel Crucifix
AR by Roger Jones on behalf of the Authors (20 Feb 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (21 Feb 2017) by Michel Crucifix
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Short summary
Climate over decadal timescales, forced by added greenhouse gases, could either change independently of internally generated variability or interact with it. For hypothesis 1, the atmosphere warms gradually, affected by random climate noise. For hypothesis 2, warming is nonlinear and step-like. Two statistical models, step and trend, are used to analyse observed and modelled temperatures; the results are subject to six tests. In conclusion, externally forced warming is step-like at these scales.
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