Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Research article 02 Sep 2015
Research article | 02 Sep 2015
Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate
E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201,
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677,Short summary
Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Jonathan Elsey, Marc D. Coleman, Tom D. Gardiner, Kaah P. Menang, and Keith P. Shine
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 2335–2361,Short summary
Water vapour is an important component in trying to understand the flows of energy between the Sun and Earth, since it is opaque to radiation emitted by both the surface and the Sun. In this paper, we study how it absorbs sunlight by way of its
continuum, a property which is poorly understood and with few measurements. Our results indicate that this continuum absorption may be more significant than previously thought, potentially impacting satellite observations and climate studies.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899,Short summary
Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and William J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 10795–10809,Short summary
The climate impacts for emissions of different pollutants can be made comparable with weighting factors. This article estimates these weights based on temperature change for short-lived pollutants, such as methane and black carbon. Emissions from different seasons and regions are compared, for instance Europe and East Asia. The responses are calculated for four regions, where we see that the responses can be much higher in the Arctic than globally in some cases.
Marianne T. Lund, Borgar Aamaas, Terje Berntsen, Lisa Bock, Ulrike Burkhardt, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, and Keith P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 547–563,
Borgar Aamaas, Terje K. Berntsen, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Keith P. Shine, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7451–7468,
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566,Short summary
This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
K. P. Shine, R. P. Allan, W. J. Collins, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 525–540,Short summary
Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall. This impact depends on the properties of the gases or particles that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on global-mean rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
C. R. MacIntosh, K. P. Shine, and W. J. Collins
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3957–3969,Short summary
This study examines quantitatively the impact of methodological choices, in particular of averaging of multi-model ensembles, on climate metrics for ozone precursors. Estimates of the standard deviation of radiative forcing (RF), global warming and temperature potential (GWP, GTP) from ensemble-mean input fields generally overestimate the true value. The multi-model average fields are appropriate for calculating mean metrics, but are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty.
V. Grewe, C. Frömming, S. Matthes, S. Brinkop, M. Ponater, S. Dietmüller, P. Jöckel, H. Garny, E. Tsati, K. Dahlmann, O. A. Søvde, J. Fuglestvedt, T. K. Berntsen, K. P. Shine, E. A. Irvine, T. Champougny, and P. Hullah
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 175–201,
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate predictionEmergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next oneCalibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational dataReduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independenceAssessment of a full-field initialised decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-EarthEmergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 modelsA New View of Heat Wave Dynamics and Predictability over the Eastern MediterraneanMultivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occurThe impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in AfricaBayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverseIntensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st centuryWinter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern OntarioInvestigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspectiveHuman influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approachESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testingPredicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptakeA mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraintsSeasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 modelsAssessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictionsProjections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °CChanges in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensembleRegional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature changeIrreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removalChanges in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocolsSelecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble propertiesReturn levels of temperature extremes in southern PakistanOn the meaning of independence in climate scienceMinimal change of thermal continentality in Slovakia within the period 1961–2013Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulationThe ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decadesGlobal hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regimeProjecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet modelsDo GCMs predict the climate ... or macroweather?A trend-preserving bias correction – the ISI-MIP approachScenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate modelsA scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertaintiesOn the determination of the global cloud feedback from satellite measurements
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258,Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132,Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049,Short summary
This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample
imperfect modeltest, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012,Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ESDShort summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature, but show poor predictive capacity in the Subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750,Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ESDShort summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socio-economic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of Eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of Eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562,Short summary
Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445,Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394,Short summary
Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356,Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328,Short summary
This study uses climate projections over West Africa to investigate the future changes in different aspects of its hydrological cycle. Over the 21st century, temperatures are expected to increase at a faster rate (+0.5 °C per decade) than the global average (+0.3 °C per decade), leading to an intensification of the hydrological cycle on average of +11 % per °C over the Sahel (more intense precipitation and longer dry spells) and +3 % per °C over the Guinea Coast (more intense precipitation).
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318,Short summary
Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280,Short summary
We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its precipitation-related teleconnections in the CESM-LE. To avoid the disadvantages of the subjective choices of traditional temporal methods, we use an ensemble-based snapshot framework providing instantaneous quantities computed over the ensemble dimension of the simulation. We find that ENSO teleconnections undergo considerable changes, and the ENSO amplitude remarkably increases by 2100.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286,Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203,Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105,Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57,Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012,Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997,Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715,
Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439,Short summary
A novel method based on
present–futurerelationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311,Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240,Short summary
Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210,Short summary
This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195,Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135–151,Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263–1278,Short summary
The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224,Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Jozef Vilček, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Vido, Paulína Nalevanková, Radoslav Kandrík, and Jana Škvareninová
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 735–744,Short summary
Thermal continentality plays an important role not only in the basic characterisation of the climate in particular regions but also in the phytogeographic distribution of plants and ecosystem formation. Due to ongoing climate change, questions surrounding the changes of thermal continentality are very relevant. Our results show that the continentality of Slovakia increased in the period 1961 to 2013; however, this trend is not significant.
T. Stacke and S. Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 1–19,Short summary
This study evaluates the lifetime of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere-land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly, e.g. due to interactions with a deep-soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
S. Lovejoy, L. del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 637–658,Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
N. Wanders, Y. Wada, and H. A. J. Van Lanen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 1–15,Short summary
This study shows the impact of a changing climate on hydrological drought. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a substantial influence on the way in which drought impact is calculated. The obtained results show that an adaptive threshold approach is the way forward to study the impact of climate change on the identification and characterization of hydrological drought events.
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293,
S. Lovejoy, D. Schertzer, and D. Varon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 439–454,
S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 219–236,
B. B. B. Booth, D. Bernie, D. McNeall, E. Hawkins, J. Caesar, C. Boulton, P. Friedlingstein, and D. M. H. Sexton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95–108,
M. Perrette, F. Landerer, R. Riva, K. Frieler, and M. Meinshausen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 11–29,
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 97–107,
Burkhardt, U., Kärcher, B., Ponater, M., Gierens, K., and Gettelman, A.: Contrail cirrus supporting areas in model and observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16808, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034056, 2008.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S: Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011.
Davini, P. and Cagnazzo, C.: On the misinterpretation of the north Atlantic oscillation in CMIP5 models, Clim. Dynam., 43, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1970-y, 2013.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J- J., Park, B- K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J- N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 13, 553–597, 2011.
Deuber, O., Matthes, S., Sausen, R., Ponater, M., and Ling, L.: A physical metric-based framework for evaluating the climate trade-off between CO2 and contrails – the case of lowering flight trajectories, Environ. Sci. Policy, 25, 176–185, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.10.004, 2013.
Dunne, J. P., John, J. G., Adcroft, A. J., Griffies, S. M., Hallberg, R. W., Shevliakova, E., Stouffer, R. J., Cooke, W., Dunne, K. A., Harrison, M. J., Krasting, J. P., Malyshev, S. L., Milly, P. C. D., Phillipps, P. J., Sentman, L. T., Samuels, B. L., Spelman, M. J., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A. T., and Zadeh, N.: GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon earth system models, part I, physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics, J. Climate, 25, 6646–6665, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00560.1, 2012.
Fichter, C., Marquart, C., Sausen, R., and Lee, D. S.: The impact of cruise altitude on contrails and related radiative forcing, Meteorol. Z., 14, 563–572, 2005.
Gettelman, A., Fetzer, E. J., Eldering, A., and Irion, F. W.: The global distribution of supersaturation in the upper troposphere from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, J. Climate, 19, 6089–6103, 2006.
Gierens, K. and Brinkop. S.: Dynamical characteristics of ice supersaturated regions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11933–11942, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-11933-2012, 2012.
Gierens, K. and Spichtinger, P.: On the size distribution of ice-supersaturated regions in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere, Ann. Geophys., 18, 499–504, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-000-0499-7, 2000.
Gierens, K., Sausen, R., and Schumann, U.: A diagnostic study of the global distribution of contrails, Part II: Future air traffic scenarios, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 63, 1–9, 1999.
Gierens, K., Lim, L., and Eleftheratos, K.: A review of various strategies for contrail avoidance, Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, 1–7, 2008.
Haglind, F.: Potential of lowering the contrail formation of aircraft exhausts by engine re-design, Aerosp. Sci. Technol., 12, 490–497, 2008.
Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., Semmler, T., Ştefănescu, S., Yang, S., Wang, X., Wyser, K., Dutra, E., Baldasano, J. M., Bintanja, R., Bougeault, P., Caballero, R., Ekman, A. M. L., Christensen, J. H., van den Hurk, B., Jimenez, P., Jones, C., Kållberg, P., Koenigk, T., McGrath, R., Miranda, P., Van Noije, T., Palmer, T., Parodi, J. A., Schmith, T., Selten, F., Storelvmo, T., Sterl, A., Tapamo, H., Vancoppenolle, M., Viterbo, P., and Willén, U.: EC-Earth: a seamless earth-system prediction approach in action, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1357–1363, 2010.
Hazeleger, W., Wang, X., Severijns, C., Stefanescu, S., Bintanja, R., Sterl, A., Wyser, K., Semmler, T., Yang, S., van den Hurk, B., van Noije, T., van der Linden, E., and van der Wiel, K.: EC-EARTH V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2611–2629, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1228-5, 2012.
Immler, F., Treffeisen, R., Engelbart, D., Krüger, K., and Schrems, O.: Cirrus, contrails, and ice supersaturated regions in high pressure systems at northern mid latitudes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1689–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1689-2008, 2008.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, 1535 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324, 2013.
Irvine, E. A., Hoskins, B. J., and Shine, K. P.: The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the north Atlantic, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12802, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051909, 2012.
Irvine, E. A., Hoskins, B. J., and Shine, K. P.: A Lagrangian analysis of ice-supersaturated air over the North Atlantic, J. Geophys. Res., 119, 90–100, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020251, 2014a.
Irvine, E. A., Hoskins, B. J., and Shine, K. P.: A simple framework for assessing the trade-off between the climate impact of aviation dioxide emissions and contrails for a single flight, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 064021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064021, 2014b.
Irvine, E. A., Shine, K. P., and Stringer, M. A.: What are the implications of climate change for trans-Atlantic aircraft routing and flight time?, Transport. Res. D-Tr. E., in review, 2015.
Kästner, M., Meyer, R., and Wendling, P.: Influence of weather conditions on the distribution of persistent contrails, Meteorol. Appl., 6, 261–271, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482799001231, 1999.
Lamquin, N., Gierens, K., Stubenrauch, C. J., and Chatterjee, R.: Evaluation of upper tropospheric humidity forecasts from ECMWF using AIRS and CALIPSO data, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 1779–1793, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1779-2009, 2009.
Lamquin, N., Stubenrauch, C. J., Gierens, K., Burkhardt, U., and Smit, H.: A global climatology of upper-tropospheric ice supersaturation occurrence inferred from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder calibrated by MOZAIC, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 381–405, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-381-2012, 2012.
Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Newton, P. J., Wit, R. C. N., Lim, L. L., Owen, B., and Sausen, R.: Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century, Atmos. Environ., 43, 3520–3537, 2009.
Lee, Y.-Y. and Black, R. X.: Boreal winter low-frequency variability in CMIP5 models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 6891–6904, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50493, 2013.
Lorenz, D. J. and DeWeaver, E. T.: The response of the extratropical hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 20, 3470–3484, 2007.
Luo, Z., Kley, D., Johnson, R. H., and Smit, H.: Ten years of measurements of tropical upper-tropospheric water by MOZAIC, Part I: Climatology, variability, transport and relation to deep convection, J. Climate, 20, 418–435, 2007.
Mannstein, H., Spichtinger, P., and Gierens, K.: A note on how to avoid contrail cirrus, Transport. Res. D-Tr. E., 10, 421–426, 2005.
Marquart, S., Ponater, M., Mager, F., and Sausen, R.: Future development of contrail cover, optical depth, and radiative forcing: impacts of increasing air traffic and climate change, J. Climate, 16, 2890–2904, 2003.
Martin, G. M., Bellouin, N., Collins, W. J., Culverwell, I. D., Halloran, P. R., Hardiman, S. C., Hinton, T. J., Jones, C. D., McDonald, R. E., McLaren, A. J., O'Connor, F. M., Roberts, M. J., Rodriguez, J. M., Woodward, S., Best, M. J., Brooks, M. E., Brown, A. R., Butchart, N., Dearden, C., Derbyshire, S. H., Dharssi, I., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Edwards, J. M., Falloon, P. D., Gedney, N., Gray, L. J., Hewitt, H. T., Hobson, M., Huddleston, M. R., Hughes, J., Ineson, S., Ingram, W. J., James, P. M., Johns, T. C., Johnson, C. E., Jones, A., Jones, C. P., Joshi, M. M., Keen, A. B., Liddicoat, S., Lock, A. P., Maidens, A. V., Manners, J. C., Milton, S. F., Rae, J. G. L., Ridley, J. K., Sellar, A., Senior, C. A., Totterdell, I. J., Verhoef, A., Vidale, P. L., and Wiltshire, A.: The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 723–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-723-2011, 2011.
Minnis, P., Ayers, J. K., Palikonda, R., and Phan, D.: Contrails, cirrus trends and climate, J. Climate, 17, 1671–1685, 2004.
Owen, B., Lee, D. S., and Lim, L.: Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 2255–2260, https://doi.org/10.1021/es902530z, 2010.
Rädel, G. and Shine, K. P.: Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 1413–1423, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.128, 2007.
Rädel, G. and Shine, K. P.: Radiative forcing by persistent contrails and its dependence on cruise altitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D07105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009117, 2008.
Rädel, G. and Shine, K. P.: Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over the UK, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1723–1732, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.670, 2010.
Riahi, K., Grübler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol. Forecast. Soc., 74, 887–935, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026, 2007.
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., and Rafaj, P.: RCP 8.5 – a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 109, 33–57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011.
Schumann, U.: On conditions of contrail formation from aircraft exhausts, Meteorol. Z., 5, 4–23, 1996.
Schumann, U.: Influence of propulsion efficiency on contrail formation, Aerosp. Sci. Technol., 4, 391–401, 2000.
Schumann, U., Busen, R., and Plohr, M.: Experimental test of the influence of propulsion efficiency on contrail formation, J. Aircraft, 37, 1083–1087, 2000.
Schumann, U., Graf, K., and Mannstein, H.: Potential to reduce the climate impact of aviation by flight level changes, 3rd AIAA Atmospheric Space Environments Conference, 27–30 June 2011, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, 1–22, 2011.
Sherwood, S. C., Ingram, W., Tsushima, Y., Satoh, M., Roberts, M., Vidale, P. L., and O'Gorman, P. A.: Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D09104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012585, 2010.
Soler, M., Zou, B., and Hansen, M.: Flight trajectory design in the presence of contrails: application of a multiphase mixed-integer optimal control approach, Transport. Res. C-Emer., 48, 172–194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.08.009, 2014.
Spichtinger, P., Gierens, K., Leiterer, U., and Dier, H.: Ice supersaturation in the tropopause region over Lindenberg, Germany, Meteorol. Z., 12, 143–156, 2003a.
Spichtinger, P., Gierens, K., and Read, W.: The global distribution of ice-supersaturated regions as seen by the microwave limb sounder, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3391–3410, 2003b.
Spichtinger, P., Gierens, K., and Wernli, H.: A case study on the formation and evolution of ice supersaturation in the vicinity of a warm conveyor belt's outflow region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 973–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-973-2005, 2005.
Sridhar, B., Chen, N. Y., and Ng, H. K.: Energy efficient contrail mitigation strategies for reducing the environmental impact of aviation, 10th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, 212, 10–13 June 2013, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2013.
Stevens, B., Giorgetta, M., Esch, M., Mauritsen, T., Crueger, T., Rast, S., Salzmann, M., Schmidt, H., Bader, J., Block, K., Brokopt, R., Fast, I., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Lohmann, U., Pincus, R., Reichler, T., and Roeckner, E.: Atmospheric component of the MPI-M earth system model: ECHAM6, JAMES, 5, 146–172, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015, 2013.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Thorne, P. W., Lanzante, J. R., Peterson, T. C., Seidel, D. J., and Shine, K. P.: Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy, WIREs Clim. Change, 2, 66–88, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.80, 2011.
Tompkins, A. M., Gierens, K., and Rädel, G.: Ice supersaturation in the ECMWF integrated forecast system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 53–63, 2007.
Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S., Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki, D., Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H., and Kimoto, M.: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity, J. Climate, 23, 6312–6335, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3679.1, 2010.
Wilkerson, J. T., Jacobson, M. Z., Malwitz, A., Balasubramanian, S., Wayson, R., Fleming, G., Naiman, A. D., and Lele, S. K.: Analysis of emission data from global commercial aviation: 2004 and 2006, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6391–6408, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6391-2010, 2010.
Williams, V., Noland, R. B., and Toumi, R.: Reducing the climate change impacts of aviation by restricting cruise altitudes, Transport. Res. D-Tr. E., 7, 451–464, 2002.
Wright, J. S., Sobel, A., and Galewsky, J.: Diagnosis of zonal mean relative humidity changes in a warmer climate, J. Climate, 23, 4556–4569, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3488.1, 2010.
Zou, B., Buxi, G. S., and Hansen, M.: Optimal 4-D aircraft trajectories in a contrail sensitive environment, Netw. Spat. Econ., https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-013-9210-x, online first, 2015.
Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail...