Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Irvine, E. A.; Shine, K. P.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-555-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

Research article

|

02 Sep 2015

Research article |

| 02 Sep 2015

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine

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Final revised paper (published on 02 Sep 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 18 Feb 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC C81: 'Review of "Ice-supersaturation and potential for contrail formation..."', Anonymous Referee #1, 02 Mar 2015
RC C229: 'Review Comment to "Ice supersaturation in a changing climate" - Only some minor revisions requested', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 May 2015
RC C230: 'Review on “Ice-supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate” by Irvine and Shine.', Anonymous Referee #3, 06 May 2015
RC C262: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #4, 12 May 2015
AC C359: 'Final Author Responses to review comments for paper esd-2015-3 "Ice-supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate" by E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine', Emma Irvine, 08 Jun 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Emma Irvine on behalf of the Authors (03 Jul 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (08 Aug 2015) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Emma Irvine on behalf of the Authors (17 Aug 2015)

Short summary

Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.