16 Apr 2025
A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours – the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 545–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-545-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (16 comments)
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28 May 2025
Enhanced Climate Reproducibility Testing with False Discovery Rate Correction
Michael E. Kelleher and Salil Mahajan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2311, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 14 comments)
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27 Jun 2025
A simple physical model for glacial cycles
Sergio Pérez-Montero, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, and Marisa Montoya
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-915-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (13 comments)
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11 Apr 2025
The Gaia hypothesis revisited: Introducing an Organic Theory of Gaia
Carlos de Castro and Arthur Lauer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1532,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1532, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 10 comments)
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26 Sep 2025
100 kyr ice age cycles as a timescale-matching problem
Takahito Mitsui, Peter Ditlevsen, Niklas Boers, and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1569–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1569-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (9 comments)
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26 Jun 2025
Peat oxic and anoxic controls of Sphagnum decomposition rates in the Holocene Peatland Model decomposition module estimated from litterbag data
Henning Teickner, Edzer Pebesma, and Klaus-Holger Knorr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 891–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-891-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (9 comments)
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15 May 2025
On defining climate by means of an ensemble
Gábor Drótos and Tamás Bódai
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2030, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 9 comments)
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12 Jun 2025
Global relevance of atmospheric and land surface drivers for hot temperature extremes
Yigit Uckan, Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Kelley De Polt, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 869–889, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-869-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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02 Jun 2025
Influence of floodplains and groundwater dynamics on the present-day climate simulated by the CNRM climate model
Bertrand Decharme and Jeanne Colin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 729–752, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-729-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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23 Apr 2025
Paleogeographic numerical modeling of marginal seas for the Holocene – an exemplary study of the Baltic Sea
Jakub Miluch, Wenyan Zhang, Jan Harff, Andreas Groh, Peter Arlinghaus, and Celine Denker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 585–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-585-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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28 Mar 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21,000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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17 Mar 2025
Evaluating biogeophysical sensitivities to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models using observational constraints
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Revised manuscript under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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26 Feb 2025
Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity
Kate Marvel and Mark Webb
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 317–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-317-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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21 Jan 2025
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 169–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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28 Nov 2024
Early warnings of the transition to a superrotating atmospheric state
Mark S. Williamson and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1483–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1483-2024, 2024
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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12 Nov 2024
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Final revised paper published in ESD (8 comments)
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08 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David I. Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Henk A. Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura C. Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Bablu Sinha, Steven C. Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1611–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
17 Jul 2025
A causality-based method for multi-model comparison: application to relationships between atmospheric, oceanic and marine biogeochemical variables
Germain Bénard, Marion Gehlen, and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1085-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)
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06 May 2025
Ensemble design for seasonal climate predictions: studying extreme Arctic sea ice lows with a rare event algorithm
Jerome Sauer, François Massonnet, Giuseppe Zappa, and Francesco Ragone
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 683–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-683-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)
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07 Jan 2025
A first attempt to model global hydrology at hyper-resolution
Barry van Jaarsveld, Niko Wanders, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja, Jannis Hoch, Bram Droppers, Joren Janzing, Rens L. P. H. van Beek, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 29–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-29-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (7 comments)
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17 Sep 2025
Carbon–climate feedback higher when assuming Michaelis–Menten kinetics of respiration
Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1527–1537, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1527-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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04 Sep 2025
Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models
Juliette Deman and Julien Boé
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1409–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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26 Aug 2025
Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social–ecological multi-layer network model
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1365–1390, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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18 Jul 2025
Future changes in regional inter-monthly precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1135–1151, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1135-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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18 Jul 2025
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Kerstin Lux-Gottschalk and Paul D. L. Ritchie
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1153–1168, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1153-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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15 Jul 2025
Concurrent modes of climate variability linked to spatially compounding wind and precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere
Bastien François, Khalil Teber, Lou Brett, Richard Leeding, Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, and Emanuele Bevacqua
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1029-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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14 Jul 2025
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content
Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1001–1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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11 Jul 2025
| Highlight paper
Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics
Eric D. Galbraith, Abdullah Al Faisal, Tanya Matitia, William Fajzel, Ian Hatton, Helmut Haberl, Fridolin Krausmann, and Dominik Wiedenhofer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 979–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-979-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
04 Jun 2025
Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
Edna Johanna Molina Bacca, Miodrag Stevanović, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jonathan Cornelis Doelman, Louise Parsons Chini, Jan Volkholz, Katja Frieler, Christopher Paul Oliver Reyer, George Hurtt, Florian Humpenöder, Kristine Karstens, Jens Heinke, Christoph Müller, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Elke Stehfest, and Alexander Popp
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 753–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-753-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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06 May 2025
Unravelling the future role of internal variability in South Asian near-surface wind speed
Cheng Shen, Hui-Shuang Yuan, Zhi-Bo Li, Jinling Piao, Youli Chang, and Deliang Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1156, 2025
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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03 Apr 2025
An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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03 Apr 2025
Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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28 Mar 2025
| Highlight paper
Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
26 Mar 2025
Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes
Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Margarida Samso Cabre, and Markus Gabriel Donat
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-940, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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13 Mar 2025
Exploring the opportunities and challenges of using large language models to represent institutional agency in land system modelling
Yongchao Zeng, Calum Brown, Joanna Raymond, Mohamed Byari, Ronja Hotz, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 423–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-423-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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18 Feb 2025
Uncertainty in the projected Antarctic contribution to sea level due to internal climate variability
Justine Caillet, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Pierre Mathiot, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Benoit Urruty, Clara Burgard, Charles Amory, Mondher Chekki, and Christoph Kittel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 293–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-293-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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09 Jan 2025
Chaotic oceanic excitation of low-frequency polar motion variability
Lara Börger, Michael Schindelegger, Mengnan Zhao, Rui M. Ponte, Anno Löcher, Bernd Uebbing, Jean-Marc Molines, and Thierry Penduff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 75–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-75-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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18 Dec 2024
AERA-MIP: emission pathways, remaining budgets, and carbon cycle dynamics compatible with 1.5 and 2 °C global warming stabilization
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Final revised paper published in ESD (6 comments)
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02 Dec 2024
Inconclusive Early warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events across Greenland ice cores
Clara Hummel, Niklas Boers, and Martin Rypdal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3567, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Seamless seasonal to multi-annual predictions of temperature and Standardized Precipitation Index by constraining transient climate model simulations
Juan C. Acosta Navarro, Alvise Aranyossy, Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Rashed Mahmood, Andrea Toreti, and Danila Volpi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1723–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1723-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (5 comments)
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14 Mar 2025
Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet disintegration on atmosphere and ocean disentangled
Malena Andernach, Marie-Luise Kapsch, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 451–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-451-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (5 comments)
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07 Feb 2025
Considerations for determining warm-water coral reef tipping points
Paul Pearce-Kelly, Andrew H. Altieri, John F. Bruno, Christopher E. Cornwall, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Juan Rocha, Renee O. Setter, Charles Sheppard, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, and Chris Yesson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 275–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-275-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (5 comments)
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17 Oct 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1779–1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1779-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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16 Oct 2025
| Highlight paper
AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations
Endre Z. Farago, Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1739–1758, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1739-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
Short summary Chief editor
16 Oct 2025
Intensity and dynamics of extreme cold spells of the 21st century in France from CMIP6 data
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1759–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1759-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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15 Oct 2025
Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment
Norman J. Steinert and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1711–1721, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1711-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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10 Oct 2025
Positive tipping points for accelerating adoption of regenerative practices in African smallholder farming systems: what drives and sustains adoption?
Antony Philip Emenyu, Thomas Pienkowski, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Timothy M. Lenton, and Tom W. R. Powell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1699–1710, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1699-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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10 Oct 2025
Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2
Lise Seland Graff, Jerry Tjiputra, Ada Gjermundsen, Andreas Born, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Heiko Goelzer, Yan-Chun He, Petra Margaretha Langebroek, Aleksi Nummelin, Dirk Olivié, Øyvind Seland, Trude Storelvmo, Mats Bentsen, Chuncheng Guo, Andrea Rosendahl, Dandan Tao, Thomas Toniazzo, Camille Li, Stephen Outten, and Michael Schulz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1671–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1671-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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09 Oct 2025
Eco-evolutionary modelling of global vegetation dynamics and the impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: insights from contrasting periods
Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1655–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025, 2025
Final revised paper published in ESD (4 comments)
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